The stock market and economy have parted ways • Hacker News Board

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#281

Post by catalogia » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 7:04 PM UTC

sershe wrote: post #218

catalogia wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could they really manage to make a new version of the vaccine four times a year? For influenza they only do it twice a year and the vaccines are often only 50% effective (or worse.)

I would assume this is because of how fast flu is evolving and how many strains there are, with different ones predominant in any given year. Covid is (relatively) stable, so you'd just use the same one.

If it's stable, wouldn't immunity be stable too? Or is immunity decay a matter of your immune system being unstable, rather than the virus?

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#282

Post by mD5pPxMcS6fVWKE » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 7:05 PM UTC

owenmarshall wrote: post #274

mD5pPxMcS6fVWKE wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What prevents government from paying their bills, rent and loans forever? Warren Buffett said that US gov can never go bankrupt because it owns the printing press.

The USD is the reserve currency of the world. The US maintains this status quo through a combination of soft and hard power: stir the pot a little and ambassadors tut-tut. Stir a bit more and your politicians have their US bank accounts frozen. Stir too hard and the USS Gerald R. Ford sails up off your coast and asks you to reconsider democracy. I'd be surprised if this status quo is challenged by another country for…

Doesn't work against China and Russia ... doesn't really work even against Venezuela.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#283

Post by atombender » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 7:07 PM UTC

hitpointdrew wrote: post #20

> “I’m not sure what will trigger a sustained sell-off in stocks, but surging [virus] infections and another round of more business closures will be difficult for investors to ignore much longer.” An alternative place to put investments will trigger it. When your options are savings accounts paying 0.25% interest, and treasury notes paying nothing, and CD's being garbage, what are your alternatives for investing? If…

For individual investors, bonds are looking good right now, though.

* US TIPS are up about 7.5% YTD

* Aggregate bond funds (BND, SCHZ, etc.) are up 6-7%

* Intermediate-term bond funds (IEF, etc.) up > 11%

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is at 6% YTD.

Bonds are sensitive to interest rates, but it seems nobody is expecting those to change this year.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#284

Post by grandinj » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 7:07 PM UTC

My theory is that there is too much money seeking to be invested, because too much of current society revolves around time-shifting money (which is essentially what investing does).

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#285

Post by UncleOxidant » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 7:07 PM UTC

btbuildem wrote: post #168

DeonPenny wrote: post #26

Theres literally no where to put you money now. The stock market would be down if you could put money in any government bonds that you thought would immediately start increasing spending or any stock or bond market that would do any better. Emerging markets are shaky with China destroying HK and corona running through cities everywhere in the world. If you could even remotely tell me a safer place to get returns then…

What about real estate?

Maybe residential, but I think office & retail space is a very bad investment now. Covid accelerated a couple of trends: The work from home/remote trend and the moving of retail sales online. I don't see those turning around anytime soon even if we get a vaccine. Companies are finding that their employee productivity is at least on par with office-based employees and now they're eyeing all those savings on rents. A lot of leases not being renewed this year.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#286

Post by staysaasy » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 7:09 PM UTC

hitpointdrew wrote: post #20

> “I’m not sure what will trigger a sustained sell-off in stocks, but surging [virus] infections and another round of more business closures will be difficult for investors to ignore much longer.” An alternative place to put investments will trigger it. When your options are savings accounts paying 0.25% interest, and treasury notes paying nothing, and CD's being garbage, what are your alternatives for investing? If…

100%, this is also driving capital into the private equity markets (of which VC is a subset that is very relevant to Hacker News readers). Startup funding has remained exceptionally robust, especially for companies with traction at the later stages. All of that capital lost at sea, looking for a port in the storm.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#287

Post by malandrew » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 7:09 PM UTC

subsubzero wrote: post #278

There are some very strange happenings goings on with a small number of stocks. AMZN, TSLA, AAPL and a few others have seen stratospheric gains in the past few months with especially Tesla with no clear reason why. Not trying to knock tesla but there is something that I have never seen happening and given store closures, spiking covid cases and virus antibodies that seem to last months and in some cases weeks these a…

> especially Tesla with no clear reason why

It's called a short squeeze.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#288

Post by subsubzero » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 7:13 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #257

pc86 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine referring to an entire generations' life savings as "their little pennies."

Only half of those over 55 have any retirement savings [1], the other half have no retirement pennies to speak of. While not great for online discussion, I can understand where the sentiment comes (the evidence is clear older generations strip mined the country economically [and continue to do so], pulled the ladder up behind them, and then are shocked when younger citizens are resentful). [1] https://www.gao.gov/ass…

I don't know, maybe I am out of touch but almost all boomers I know are extremely well off, they started as scientists or other typical professional occupations and now own assets in the millions, basically housing in California and other areas. Prop 13 has helped them(their prop. taxes do not go up) as well as dirt cheap college costs when they went to college. Housing was rather cheap as well considering salaries, I remember my Dad looking at houses in Palo Alto in the mid 90's and they were in the 300's(they are now 3-4M). I feel like gen X and Millennials are really getting the short end of the stick when it comes to alot of essential life costs. Sure economists say inflation is not happening but I think the formula to look into inflation is incorrect as Housing/Medical/College has skyrocketed where a gallon of milk and bread has not jumped in cost.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#289

Post by tryptophan » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 7:16 PM UTC

umvi wrote: post #86

quickthrowman wrote: post #62

For the last week or so I’ve been buying ATM QQQ call spreads and rolling them up and out as they become ITM. I’m up 100% in one week, this is silly.

Mind expanding the acronyms and explaining what exactly you've done? I'm still an investing novice.

He is doing leveraged bets that the QQQ stock fund will go up a certain amount. When it goes up to that certain amount, he makes another bet it will go up again.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#290

Post by david927 » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 7:16 PM UTC

devalgo wrote: post #233

adaisadais wrote: post #97

I spoke to my financial advisor a month ago and he told me he was not worried of a major and sustained drop as FED and Congressional intervention had helped curtail that before it spiraled out of hand. But I cannot help but see current market prices and see current for lease and boarded up building. I wonder if he was correct. I wonder if the advice he has given me is wrong? I believe we are about 9months away from t…

>I believe we are about 9months away from the greatest financial disaster of our times Why 9 months? What would precipitate that?

By nine months it will be a debt crisis which has become a liquidity crisis which then forces a fire-sale of assets.