The stock market and economy have parted ways • Hacker News Board

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#191

Post by Balgair » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:42 PM UTC

woeirua wrote: post #160

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the retail drive of this rally, bills coming due could have a similar effect.

Without a doubt, the coming wave of evictions and foreclosures is going to pop the bubble. Once the tent cities (maybe we should call them "Trump hotels") start springing up in every metro area around the US, I think the market will finally lose this steam. The US is headed for a dire economic situation. At that point, the only thing that can save us is an effective vaccine that confers long lasting immunity. Anythin…

> ... start springing up ...

What do you mean 'start'?

The homeless camp right next to the new Apple spaceship just got a bathroom installed:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/03/after-months-of-compl...

This stuff has been going on for a few years now.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#192

Post by xondono » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:45 PM UTC

chii wrote: post #147

harryh wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the short run, yes. But in the long run it's a weighing machine.

but then explain why the current prices aren't reflecting a weighing from a few decades ago? when does "short term" become "long term"?

They can do both at the same time, it's just that a time series is not a very useful representation, you want something similar to an FFT.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#193

Post by NotSammyHagar » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:45 PM UTC

zaphod420 wrote: post #94

empath75 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of my unemployed friends just told me he's putting everything into bitcoin.

might be a smart move. I'm not going all in, but I am dollar cost averaging my buys and accumulating bitcoin.

Why is it smart to do this? Bitcoin took a dive earlier in the pandemic. Why would it be counter "the world is crashing" now?

The us is still the world's reserve currency. If the us keeps circling the drain economically and financially and especially politically, we have so much power and raw capability to come back. The big problem is covid-19, where the world can leave us behind as we slowly kill ourselves off. Hmm, I'm almost convincing myself that even us $ could eventually not last. So, I'll just take one of those job offers on hacker news that says we'll get you a visa to come to Amsterdam?

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#194

Post by NotSammyHagar » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:47 PM UTC

im3w1l wrote: post #174

DeonPenny wrote: post #26

Theres literally no where to put you money now. The stock market would be down if you could put money in any government bonds that you thought would immediately start increasing spending or any stock or bond market that would do any better. Emerging markets are shaky with China destroying HK and corona running through cities everywhere in the world. If you could even remotely tell me a safer place to get returns then…

Invest in main street and labor saving gadgets for yourself (e.g. roomba).

That seems wrong too. If I don't have a job or I'm underemployed, why do I need a roomba? I'm not over-worked as a dev where this kind of aid helps me. Main street has closing store after closing store where I'm at in the PNW. There's no main street left.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#195

Post by Apocryphon » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:47 PM UTC

JoshTko wrote: post #149

smallgovt wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting theory. Is there a way to quantify how evenly investing, say $200B, across the S&P would affect the index's price?

It wouldn't be evenly distributed. It would disproportionately be invested in well know consumer brand as these would be novice investors.

So they pay it back into the economy, because quarantine restrictions prevent them from producing their own economic activity. Now that's stimulus.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#196

Post by mD5pPxMcS6fVWKE » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:47 PM UTC

throwaway_USD wrote: post #41

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the retail drive of this rally, bills coming due could have a similar effect.

This is the most sane thing anyone can say. At some point there is going to be a critical mass of people not paying their mortgage, not paying rent, not paying loans, not paying credit cards...and simply no money and unemployment. I think this week we will begin to see some acknowledgement of the realities because July 15 is the new tax return date, and I think there will be millions and millions of American's who ju…

What prevents government from paying their bills, rent and loans forever? Warren Buffett said that US gov can never go bankrupt because it owns the printing press.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#197

Post by david927 » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:51 PM UTC

everybodyknows wrote: post #139

treis wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed buying bonds isn't pushing Tesla to the 14th largest market cap. It's currently trading $200 per share higher than any analyst recommendation that the WSJ or Yahoo has. Not to mention Hertz, a bankrupt company, has a market cap of 200 million. Something very unusual is going on.

9.5% of float shorted, up 13% mid-day. Short squeeze, methinks. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla

Of course it's a short squeeze

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#198

Post by Apocryphon » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:52 PM UTC

api wrote: post #84

erentz wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A very large percentage of the market is required to achieve a certain return. Think insurance companies. Giant pension plans. Etc. They have all been forced further and further out the risk curve over the past decade due to low interest rates.

Everything is being forced further out on the risk curve. Everything. This also explains wacky basketcase unicorns like WeWork, perpetually unprofitable companies raising round after round, the continued existence of the cryptocurrency world in spite of it being like 90%+ scams, real estate going up in cities where >25% of people are behind on their mortgages, etc. There's no "alpha" anywhere. Money is chasing its ta…

Relevant read: How Zero-Interest-Rate Policy explains the world

https://themargins.substack.com/p/zirp-explains-the-world

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#199

Post by DeonPenny » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:53 PM UTC

im3w1l wrote: post #174

DeonPenny wrote: post #26

Theres literally no where to put you money now. The stock market would be down if you could put money in any government bonds that you thought would immediately start increasing spending or any stock or bond market that would do any better. Emerging markets are shaky with China destroying HK and corona running through cities everywhere in the world. If you could even remotely tell me a safer place to get returns then…

Invest in main street and labor saving gadgets for yourself (e.g. roomba).

What does that mean specifically and at what cost. Are the returns better?

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#200

Post by thorwasdfasdf » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 4:53 PM UTC

hitpointdrew wrote: post #20

> “I’m not sure what will trigger a sustained sell-off in stocks, but surging [virus] infections and another round of more business closures will be difficult for investors to ignore much longer.” An alternative place to put investments will trigger it. When your options are savings accounts paying 0.25% interest, and treasury notes paying nothing, and CD's being garbage, what are your alternatives for investing? If…

and when you take into account the enormous potential for inflation the "saftey" of bank accounts is completely undermined.

The market is acting rationally. You have no choice but to go all in on the market or inflation protected assets or risk loosing everything to inflation in the coming decade.