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The stock market and economy have parted ways

washingtonpost.com

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Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#171

Post by patmorgan23 »

baron_harkonnen wrote: post #115
danhak wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This trope gets repeated over and over but it just makes no sense. Volatility is risk. What rational investor says "interest rates are too low, I MUST deploy my capital into a market that is seeing wild 30% gyrations from month to month instead of parking it safely while this global crisis plays out."

You're thinking about your personal investments, not someone managing a large investment firm or hedge fund. This simple fixes for your personal investments would be seen as absolutely insane in the professional investment world. You can't just tell your clients "oh I put $100 Billion into some nearly 0% interest investments because I think the market is crazy", especially if the DJIA is having record months. Even th…

Then way are institutions buying negative rate bonds?

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#172

Post by catalogia »

FlyMoreRockets wrote: post #152
nsnick wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If immunity acquired after infection is only for a short period, immunity acquired after a vaccine will also only be for a short period.

Very likely, yes. However, it is much less debilitating to get a shot every three months.

Could they really manage to make a new version of the vaccine four times a year? For influenza they only do it twice a year and the vaccines are often only 50% effective (or worse.)

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#173

Post by danans »

apta wrote: post #125
yonaguska wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me know when you figure out a better way to put a price on the risk of loaning money. As evil as you may think interest rates are- without a price on the risk of loaning money- access to loans dry up and only the already wealthy will have access to capital.

Loaning money should not be done to make money, it's parasitic. It should purely be a charitable contribution without expecting a return. If the loanee decides, out of his or her own goodness to return more money than they took, then that's up to them. Now the obvious and direct effect of this is that people will generally not loan their money. This is a good thing. The follow up is that they will invest their money…

> It should purely be a charitable contribution without expecting a return. > Now the obvious and direct effect of this is that people will generally not loan their money. This is a good thing. The follow up is that they will invest their money in hopefully legitimate and moral ways.

What kind of investor are you referring to that doesn't expect returns? Even "social impact" investors expect returns in reputation, or in buttressing the foundation on which their primary profit driven business is built.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#174

Post by im3w1l »

DeonPenny wrote: post #26

Theres literally no where to put you money now. The stock market would be down if you could put money in any government bonds that you thought would immediately start increasing spending or any stock or bond market that would do any better. Emerging markets are shaky with China destroying HK and corona running through cities everywhere in the world. If you could even remotely tell me a safer place to get returns then…

Invest in main street and labor saving gadgets for yourself (e.g. roomba).

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#176

Post by secondcoming »

beagle3 wrote: post #98
secondcoming wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no gold bug, but turn some of your cash into gold.

It is actually very hard to get real gold (especially in a form that you can convert back to cash in the future). Just try to get delivery of a gold bullion. And if you succeed, try selling it into the system again, without losing 30%. Paper gold is a bet no different than a stock; it is a bet that the system and your counterparty will both be solvent when you need them.

I own physical gold, not a lot. Here are some reasons I bought it:

a) It's a store of wealth. I don't expect to be able to go buy groceries with it, however I do expect to be able to cash it in for fiat post-depression if I need to.

b) I can move it abroad easily enough if I need to. I have immediate access to it.

c) It's cool.

It has also doubled in value since I bought it.

I am old enough to remeber the chaos in the silver market a few years ago, where it went to $50 per ounce and then crashed in two or three days. I'm not one of those morons.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#177

Post by [deleted] »

pjc50 wrote: post #141
willcipriano wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is when the financial economy goes bust and those dollars start chasing real economy assets all the inflation we were assured wouldn't happen due to all the money printing will happen all at once. People act like the big short guys were geniuses to see this trend come out of nowhere. I was a teenager asking questions like "How can housing prices rise nationally at a multiple of wage increases for any sustain…

Once you allow for the fall in interest rates over the past decades, the house price rise looks less surprising. However, there's a weird corollary: what happens when rates go negative?

[deleted]

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#178

Post by jppope »

abvdasker wrote: post #127
danhak wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This trope gets repeated over and over but it just makes no sense. Volatility is risk. What rational investor says "interest rates are too low, I MUST deploy my capital into a market that is seeing wild 30% gyrations from month to month instead of parking it safely while this global crisis plays out."

Have you talked to the people who use Robinhood? This is exactly how many of them think but in less sophisticated terms.

/r/wallstreetbets for anyone looking

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#179

Post by DeonPenny »

btbuildem wrote: post #168
DeonPenny wrote: post #26

Theres literally no where to put you money now. The stock market would be down if you could put money in any government bonds that you thought would immediately start increasing spending or any stock or bond market that would do any better. Emerging markets are shaky with China destroying HK and corona running through cities everywhere in the world. If you could even remotely tell me a safer place to get returns then…

What about real estate?

No one knows when people will be moving back into cities and rents in places like SF have dropped I think 16% in some areas. No one knows if ever they will get that back, or how much it will drop. Its a complete unknown

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#180

Post by disease »

3pt14159 wrote: post #13
Loughla wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's where the FOMO comes in. I, and many, many of my friends, missed out on Bitcoin in college. Many of my friends are posting the same things you state on their social media, and are making it clear they won't be left behind this time. Not sure what all that means, but it's fascinating.

It means a massive crash is coming. Money printer go brrr is funny, but it's not capable of propping up the entire market forever. There's a flight to safety that happens when countries really start printing.

Then the fed can just start buying equities outright. If equities continue to fall even after that, they can keep on buying them until they own enough that they can set the price themselves.
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