You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…
Sweden still did very poorly on that basis especially compared to it's most direct 'peer' - Denmark. The differences are quite a lot and worthy of consideration.
Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains
701–710 of 720 posts
Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains
#702Earlier quoted context omitted.
> nurses change their masks all the time, Do they? Are you a nurse? > nobody skis every day for eight hours, (FWIW the vast majority of people skiing don't wear masks over their mouths) Show me the statistics on that. > Like every hour? If not good luck with that, it is a pit of infection, a wet and warm substrate for bacteria and fungi. This is the most inane argument ever. You're basically saying those same exact b…
do yourself a service and read a real scientific paper on masks (pre-covid when people dared studying the negative effects) and read what happens on the inner side of a mask in a nutshell stuff that would leave your body when you exhale will now be trapped on the inner side of your mask where it gets more and more concentrated, far more concentrated that what normally enters your lungs, the new stuff gets deposited o…
People have been wearing face coverings since the dawn of time.
Can you tell me the number of deaths attributed to wearing a mask? I can't even google it since all the things that come up now are recommendations to wear a mask.
> in a nutshell stuff that would leave your body when you exhale will now be trapped on the inner side of your mask
If you want to take the 'it is just a flu argument'... I'm more worried about catching covid than I am about the microorganisms coming out of my own breath. They are already in me, in a very concentrated form.
Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains
#703Earlier quoted context omitted.
Younger/healthier people are far less likely to die. But they can be a great vector of infection to others.
It's been verified that primary school teachers, who have all gone to work as usual, as primary schools never closed, haven't shown a significantly higher number of infection than others.
Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains
#704Earlier quoted context omitted.
A day later, 30 more deaths and we're now 7th lowest, our Rt is up to 0.99 and 3-day hospitalization average is now going up for the first time in a while. The state is now also offering expanded free testing to anyone so it'll be interesting to see how that changes it.
Yes, the Rt declines before the lockdown are curious, but I wonder if they are statistical anomalies related to initial small numbers or some other factor. It could also be that the people were independently starting to take measures, distancing, masks, etc. I know I was, and I'm not the only one. The chart of inferred infections by date seems to show very strong correlations to the lockdown measures: * very steep ra…
So, this is likely of no practical value and some kind of data artifact. Best guess is spread before testing, and testing rates ramping up as it spreads, logging new cases at rates faster than they are actually being created, and normalizing to actual Rt rates as the testing catches up
Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains
#705Earlier quoted context omitted.
...pretty good chances of coming up with a vaccine in about 1 year. This is just wishful thinking. We've never had effective vaccines for this sort of virus. (The yearly flu vaccine is like 30% effective.) Sure lots of research groups are working on vaccines, but many of them are academics who have no particular duty to work on research likely to have an immediate payoff. The researchers who do have such a duty, i.e.…
At least one phase 3 clinical trial is about to start this month. I too am surprised that the one year estimate is not complete nonsense, but it seems it's not. (Of course the mRNA vector might simply not pan out, but there are still others currently undergoing phase 2.) Efficacy is always a question, sure, yet it seems the spike protein is stable (conserved across mutations). If the mRNA stuff works well then it'll…
So, stability over e.g. a month doesn't guarantee stability over longer terms.
Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains
#706Earlier quoted context omitted.
I live in Vietnam. > if you fail to self isolate, you go to a gov’t camp There are a few instances of this, which of course the govt made sure were widely reported. It's very unlikely in general that they would know, though. > all int’l flight have been stopped; only repatriation flights are happening This is completely false, as you can verify on any public flight tracker website. The number of flights is greatly re…
Thanks for adding your observations! Maybe there is a bit of variation across Vietnam? I’m just sharing what my in-laws observed where they live. When I say “all international flights” stopped, I mean, you can’t just hoop on the next flight to Vietnam. Yes, there are still repatriation flights happening and flight for certain purposes, but “normal” air travel has stopped, no? So regardless, would you agree that Vietn…
Perhaps. My experience was with HCMC and Hanoi.
> When I say “all international flights” stopped, I mean, you can’t just hop on the next flight to Vietnam. Yes, there are still repatriation flights happening and flight for certain purposes, but “normal” air travel has stopped, no?
Actually, there were normal, scheduled flights throughout the lockdown. There are right now, there were last week, and there were every week before that. You can trivially confirm this on a flight-tracking website (one of the ones that goes on the ADS-B data, so you see actual aircraft tracks, rather than just a flight schedule website which may show you flights that didn't actually operate). Visa waiver, visa-on-arrival, e-visa and visa issuance for tourists completely stopped, so in practice a tourist can't board a flight to Vietnam, but a small number of flights have continued running throughout, indicating sufficient demand from people who are able to fly here (Vietnamese citizens, people with residence permits, people who were able to get issued non-tourist visas in their home country, ...)
> So regardless, would you agree that Vietnam is going far beyond a lot of countries in trying to control the spread?
I'd say they're pretty much on par with any of the places that aren't a massive failure. But I also think the question of which country did it better or worse is not very interesting, and mostly a pointless political distraction from useful questions like which control measures have a meaningful effect and which don't.
Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains
#707Earlier quoted context omitted.
During a Swedish flu season 1800 die per week. I haven't seen this number yet in this year's flu season.
really? a link?
http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publi...
Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains
#708Earlier quoted context omitted.
Chose Finland then, then yo'd say they are not technically same, because of some cultural differences, Denmark not similar. No true Scotsman.
No, comparisons with Norway are just a pet peeve of mine. It doesn't really matter anyway, I already admitted that countries like Germany and Netherlands did have fewer deaths with modest lockdowns. These are samples in favor of a lockdown. However, there are also countries like France, Spain and UK that had the strictest lockdown, yet they had higher death rates. Those hint at strict lockdowns being no more effectiv…
Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains
#709Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think we can keep things where they are. The current restrictions aren't great but they are sustainable: - Virtually no travel in and out of the country (goods still flow though). - No gatherings > 50 people. - Keep 2m away from others (except for "bubbles"). - Wash your hands. - Masks in certain situations (not mandatory for most). - Various limitations in place as to how businesses operate, e.g. distance between…
Wow. All I can say is that you have very different priorities than most others. Most are ok with those changes temporarily. Almost nobody is willing to make that sacrifice permanently.
There's lot of room for optimization/improvements. Travel might be ok to locations that have this under control, for example. We might find better solutions for keeping the transmission low. We could decide to clamp down harder and eradicate the virus locally so that we can trade off local restrictions vs. travel restrictions.
It's just between all the bad options here this seems to be the least bad. 2 years of the disease raging through the community until (maybe) there's herd immunity sounds so much worse. I'm pretty sure the Americans who think this is the way to go will change their minds come this fall assuming the current trend continues. Maybe I'm wrong... Let's catch up in December ;)
Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains
#710Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not possible to calculate that exchange rate, because you don't have access to the counterfactual. You're not taking the ratio of lockdown years to years lost to deaths, right? Both of those belong in the expenses side...
Sweden didn't lock down, that is the typical worst case you would get. So lives saved is the deaths per pop in Sweden compared to deaths per pop where you are.
All gatherings över 50 persons are forbiden and we are to told to not travel IF not needed.
We still uphold laws, so the government bor riksdag can force lockdown om People. But can close Stores and restaurants that doesn't follow rules.
And about Corona deaths, we are probably have more correct reports of deaths than many countries, like UK. Which probably are under reporting.
That based on all deaths reporter. The exccess deaths compared to previous five years are about the same as the reporter Covid-19 deaths. And the över deaths in Sweden are in pair with Denmark, higher then Norway but lower that Finland and Scotland (yes, part of UK).
And Finland has Hard lockdown, so Scotland and Denmark.
Even IF you compare Copenhagen area with Skåne area (South part of Sweden) with about same population, the death rate reporter of Covid-19 is higher in Copenhagen. There are areas in Sweden that have lower death rates then Finland, on pair with Finland.
So No, you are basically ignorant of the death rates of Sweden.
And yes, death rates of Covid-19 in Sweden are still lower than some bad influenza years, like in 2000. Even through the population in Sweden was smaller then, total number of deaths in flue was Word. And letting children go to school was a good Choice, as Corona isn't pushed by children, many are better going to school then forced to be at home. And they are not loosing important time in school with their friends and some normalities.
And the all deaths are now down to under normal years. Most thanks to the changed in behaviour has almost erased the flue in Sweden.
Comparing total deaths data, without different rules to define IF deaths are Covid-19 or not, shows that the lockdown in UK, Denmark and Finland did not do much difference. Not compared to Sweden, with moderate and mostly informed population about how to defeat the spread of the Corona virus.
But, that isn't interesting to wrote about, I guess. As it could show that the lockdown is the only solution, that it also cost life and sufferings.
Links on demands.