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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#641

Post by robotron »

collyw wrote: post #539
takeda wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure where you get 70,000. On average it's 16,000 - 40,000 per year, there was a really bad flu on 2017-2018, which killed about 61,000 people, but on 2018-2019 it killed 34,000[1]. Anyway, your point stands, but there are people who think covid deaths are no higher than a bad flu, and your numbers seem to mislead in that direction. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

I am leaning towards the lock down skepticism. It's not that I think that Covid is not worse than a flu, it is worse, but there response is unparalleled. We have had a strict lockdown and lots of deaths anyway. The initial predictions about the virus turned out to be way off, it seems to be more infectious and less dangerous than we were initially told Initially lockdown was to "flatten the curve", stop the hospitals…

Who had a strict lockdown? Most of the US did not and if they did, it was too short. Source: I'm a Texan.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#642

Post by refurb »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #488
refurb wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have family in Vietnam and from what they’ve told me, Vietnam is taking it very seriously. - folks that are high-risk and quarantined are monitored (guards posted outside residence) - if you fail to self isolate, you go to a gov’t camp - all int’l flight have been stopped; only repatriation flights are happening - for those foreigners who made it in before the flights stopped, they all went to gov't facilities - if…

I live in Vietnam. > if you fail to self isolate, you go to a gov’t camp There are a few instances of this, which of course the govt made sure were widely reported. It's very unlikely in general that they would know, though. > all int’l flight have been stopped; only repatriation flights are happening This is completely false, as you can verify on any public flight tracker website. The number of flights is greatly re…

Thanks for adding your observations!

Maybe there is a bit of variation across Vietnam? I’m just sharing what my in-laws observed where they live.

When I say “all international flights” stopped, I mean, you can’t just hoop on the next flight to Vietnam. Yes, there are still repatriation flights happening and flight for certain purposes, but “normal” air travel has stopped, no?

So regardless, would you agree that Vietnam is going far beyond a lot of countries in trying to control the spread?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#643

Post by takeda »

jlmorton wrote: post #509
takeda wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure where you get 70,000. On average it's 16,000 - 40,000 per year, there was a really bad flu on 2017-2018, which killed about 61,000 people, but on 2018-2019 it killed 34,000[1]. Anyway, your point stands, but there are people who think covid deaths are no higher than a bad flu, and your numbers seem to mislead in that direction. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

It appears they revised the estimate: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm > Can you explain why the estimates on this page are different from previously published and reported estimates for 2017-2018? (For example, total flu-related deaths during 2017-2018 was previously estimated to be 79,000, but the current estimate is 61,000)? > The estimates on this page have been updated from an earlier report pu…

You were talking about 2018-2019 though. The 2017-2018 was an outlier and it is misleading to use it as an example of typical flu.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#644

Post by takeda »

collyw wrote: post #539
takeda wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure where you get 70,000. On average it's 16,000 - 40,000 per year, there was a really bad flu on 2017-2018, which killed about 61,000 people, but on 2018-2019 it killed 34,000[1]. Anyway, your point stands, but there are people who think covid deaths are no higher than a bad flu, and your numbers seem to mislead in that direction. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

I am leaning towards the lock down skepticism. It's not that I think that Covid is not worse than a flu, it is worse, but there response is unparalleled. We have had a strict lockdown and lots of deaths anyway. The initial predictions about the virus turned out to be way off, it seems to be more infectious and less dangerous than we were initially told Initially lockdown was to "flatten the curve", stop the hospitals…

You calling that a strict lockdown? When I go to a park and see tons of people there, half of them not wearing any masks. We aren't even fining people for not wearing them.

Someone here mentioned how Vietnam handled it, they reacted quickly and had steep fines (for their income) and achieved 0 deaths and now it's 80 days since last infection was reported.

There are other countries that handled it really well: Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, Finland.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#645

Post by ljf »

thu2111 wrote: post #628
ljf wrote: post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but realistically we need to use the blunt number of excess deaths, as each country is handling the tracking of covid deaths so differently. And it also helps show if the lockdown caused issues - by comparing against other causes of desth where countries have been tracking covid deaths in a meaningful and repeated way. As I say, I believe lockdown, esp in the way that NZ/Australia/Vietnam/South Korea did - i…

Australia is locking people in tower blocks without warning, including people who were only visiting and thus have nowhere to sleep, including people who have run out of food. Even friends trying to deliver food were turned away. https://news.google.com/search?q=australia%20tower%20block&h... It's completely insane, unbelievably nasty, truly evil. The virus is not dangerous. I'll repeat: the virus is not dangerous. E…

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23767416 check out my other post. The virus can be dangerous, to healthy younger people and old. You might not know anyone affected, but I do.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#646

Post by collyw »

robotron wrote: post #641
collyw wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am leaning towards the lock down skepticism. It's not that I think that Covid is not worse than a flu, it is worse, but there response is unparalleled. We have had a strict lockdown and lots of deaths anyway. The initial predictions about the virus turned out to be way off, it seems to be more infectious and less dangerous than we were initially told Initially lockdown was to "flatten the curve", stop the hospitals…

Who had a strict lockdown? Most of the US did not and if they did, it was too short. Source: I'm a Texan.

Here is Spain was one of the strictest.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#647

Post by kazinator »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #593
kazinator wrote: post #516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All preventable deaths should be prevented - this is the gold standard. It absolutely isn't; it is complete nonsense. Firstly, it directly conflicts with right to die; it asserts that if we can intervene in any suicide, then we should. How can stepping on the right to die be elevated to a gold standard? Some people take risks, and those risks are fatal. Deaths in dangerous sports and other activities are easily pre…

There is no right to die in most countries in the world. Got horrible painfull and untreatable disease, but a few years left on the clock? In most places you are doomed to suffer through it. The only exception i am aware of is netherlands. Secondly, most of your post conflates me engangering myself my choice ( i choose a dangerous sport and suffer) vs someone else endangering me (unsafe building collapses on my head)…

Note that, normally, a writer can't conflate A and B, if they don't make even the slightest reference to B. That said, I've pulled off "the impossible" before.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#648

Post by ryandrake »

takeda wrote: post #644
collyw wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am leaning towards the lock down skepticism. It's not that I think that Covid is not worse than a flu, it is worse, but there response is unparalleled. We have had a strict lockdown and lots of deaths anyway. The initial predictions about the virus turned out to be way off, it seems to be more infectious and less dangerous than we were initially told Initially lockdown was to "flatten the curve", stop the hospitals…

You calling that a strict lockdown? When I go to a park and see tons of people there, half of them not wearing any masks. We aren't even fining people for not wearing them. Someone here mentioned how Vietnam handled it, they reacted quickly and had steep fines (for their income) and achieved 0 deaths and now it's 80 days since last infection was reported. There are other countries that handled it really well: Austral…

Assuming you're talking about USA. The USA is probably an outlier since it essentially had no lockdown, no enforced mask usage, and very weakly enforced business closures. All the states had were half-assed "Stay At Home suggestions" that people pretty much ignored (and still ignore).

I wouldn't look at any state in the USA for evidence of whether lockdown works or not, because it pretty much wasn't done here.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#650

Post by ryandrake »

grapehut wrote: post #177
leto_ii wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway. Yes, people die. That's true of all countries and all times. What we might call civilized societies have however strived to reduce those numbers as much as possible. This was done by trying to avoid violence, improving lifestyles and developing better medical techniques in order to prevent or repair diseases and injuries. Containing and minimizing the effects of a pand…

> It's not fun, but suggesting that your right to fun should trump others' right to life is, again, uncivilized, immoral and irresponsible. That's not the argument he was making. And as a society we have to accept some negative externalities and weigh up the benefits, otherwise things like (recreational) road-trips would be banned.

I'm not exactly sure what OP's argument was, but it sounded like "Think of all the fun activities people sacrificed while we tried to handle a deadly worldwide pandemic!" I don't think this is really convincing to a lot of people and frankly it sounds borderline disgusting to me.

In the past, generations have willingly sacrificed their lives at war, ostensibly fighting for the common good, yet today we can't even stomach a year without pedicures and dining out? That's pretty sad and gross.

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