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Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

nytimes.com

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Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#611

Post by gridlockd »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #600
pas wrote: post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least one phase 3 clinical trial is about to start this month. I too am surprised that the one year estimate is not complete nonsense, but it seems it's not. (Of course the mRNA vector might simply not pan out, but there are still others currently undergoing phase 2.) Efficacy is always a question, sure, yet it seems the spike protein is stable (conserved across mutations). If the mRNA stuff works well then it'll…

Phase 3 is normally where most medicines fail. Covid (any vaccine based treatment really) is even more difficult as you need to wait for six months to assess transmission.

> Covid (any vaccine based treatment really) is even more difficult as you need to wait for six months to assess transmission.

Technically, you don't. There are volunteers ready to get infected with SARS-CoV2 and I wouldn't put my money on "ethics" standing in the way in this case.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#612

Post by gridlockd »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #260
gridlockd wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember, the game plan that virologists came up with for COVID acknowledged that most people will get it eventually. The point of the lockdowns was not to eliminate spread, which is impossible, but to not overwhelm the system.

And also to provide time for treatments to appear, with the eventual prospect of a vaccine. And also to avoid panic and shortages of essentials caused by mass avoidable deaths and work absenteeism, both of which would have been the inevitable and predictable outcome of attempting to carry on as normal. IMO the argument is already over. In fact there shouldn't have been an argument at all. There was never a rational c…

> In fact there shouldn't have been an argument at all.

This is an awful way of thinking.

> There was never a rational case for trying to avoid lockdown

This is untrue. Many virologists and epidemiologists made rational cases against lockdowns. Sweden followed the strategy of Anders Tegnell, who is a renowned epidemiologist. The case for or against lockdowns was ultimately decided by the perception of public opinion, with politicians trading off the risk of "having done too little" versus "having done too much".

The New York times is spinning a narrative that Sweden, because of no lockdown whatsoever, had a really bad outcome. It's just not true. The amount of deaths controlled for population is lower than in Spain, France or the UK, all of which had a total lockdown. Their current fatality cases are near zero. Their economic contraction is half that of the rest of the EU.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#613

Post by Leherenn »

anoncake wrote: post #477
Leherenn wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A vaccine in the next couple years is not unthinkable I'd say. If you have a look at the current infection rate in a lot of European (and others) countries, even reaching 50% of the population infected would take decades. So yes, I believe that delaying is not the only possibility.

Keeping the virus contained for years is unthinkable. If we don't get a vaccine by next year, we won't need it anymore.

With the current measures in Europe? Definitely doable.

It's currently mandatory masks in public, keeping distances and washing hands, and no big crowds.

Life feels pretty normal over here.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#614

Post by MasterYoda »

Statistics is just statistics. Many compare Swedens death/capita to other countries figures and conclude it is bad. But this is in fact not a god measure at all because this figure dont account for how far the spread is over the population, Sweden is very different here. Because Sweden have been more open they are also far ahead of other countries and much more people have been exposed and got antibodies. Sweden cant simply be compared to others that are more in the beginning in the pandemic. Sadly media forget this.

The virus cant be stopped so sooner or later other couties must open up and then they going to get more death. Just look at Spain that open up now had to lock down a reginon now with 200.000. Saying Swedens way is bad right now is far to early to conclude, when the pandemic is far from over. We have to wait at least a year or two.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#615

Post by glofish »

risaacs99 wrote: post #251
glofish wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is exactly how see it as well. My mother is 77 at risk from COVID - does she expect the neighbors kid not go to school to keep her "safe"? Or that a 20 year old not have fun at the beach from now on so that she is "safe"? Of course not, not a least bit, and she told me that herself. I admire her for it. I agree as well. Everyone is responsible for themselves.

Not sending kids to school is about keeping the teachers, administrators, and their dependents and contacts safe. It's about grandparents who care for the children and would be at risk. I don't think it's about your mom.

now that there really captures the groupthink that permeates government actions

someone's mom and people in general only matter if they are scared

if they are not scared then they have no rights, their opinion does not matter and they must do what the scared people want,

being scared and weak gives you more rights than being strong

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#616

Post by arexxbifs »

tjomk wrote: post #481
arexxbifs wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's made a long string of bad judgement calls and spurious statements. However, I'm more appalled by the government's complete mismanagement. They have completely pushed responsibility onto this single man, who cannot be held accountable in public elections. His job is to be a key advisor. The politicians are the policymakers and the only enforceable decisions they've made is pretty much to prohibit gatherings of mo…

To a degree, they did a sane thing: listened to the advice of an expert. Now if you look at the other side of the ocean where the orange man didn't listen to the advice of an expert, look what happened. I don't know how these things work in government, but relying on the opinion of just a single expert might not be the best strategy to win here. It's unlikely though that policy makers will come out in the worse shape…

Let's look at the track record of the supposed experts at FHM. A few favourites:

"The virus will not spread in Swedish society under the current circumstances. We might see a few cases." (February)

"A large proportion of the population will gain immunity, this will lead to herd immunity. No patients will have to be triaged away." (March)

"The number of ICU patients and infected elderly is stabilizing. Our measures in society are proving effective." (March)

At some point, a responsible and reasonably intelligent person will realize that maybe this particular expert is lacking in expertise and the two dozen or so of other domestic experts (all of them virologists, epidemiologists, professors in medicine etc.) that are fervently recommending stricter measures might have a point.

Swedish politicians have a great knack for avoiding the responsibility they ask for in the elections, and they're really good at shifting blame. I sure hope they won't get away with it this time.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#617

Post by Madzen__ »

kwhitefoot wrote: post #575
dropstickle wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are allowed to travel everywhere in Norway now if you are a resident, even if you are from Oslo. However, there was a couple of weeks where that was not allowed. Norway is actually almost back to normal,except you can't have gatherings of over 200 people. It has been this way for almost a month now, and there have not been any increase in confirmed covid cases yet, which is surprising.

> However, there was a couple of weeks where that was not allowed. News to me and I've been here in Norway all through the COVID time. There was a period when we were not allowed to spend the night in a holiday home unless it was in the same kommune as one's usual residence but as far as I remember there was never any country wide ban on internal travel. There were a few kommunes who set up border controls that were…

There was no travel ban, only mandatory 2 week quarantine when you return.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#618

Post by SomeoneFromCA »

glofish wrote: post #181
ralph84 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At age 65 (or any age) I'd evaluate my risk and modify my own activities. I wouldn't even dream of asking others to give up their work or school or favorite activities because of my own frailty.

this is exactly how see it as well. My mother is 77 at risk from COVID - does she expect the neighbors kid not go to school to keep her "safe"? Or that a 20 year old not have fun at the beach from now on so that she is "safe"? Of course not, not a least bit, and she told me that herself. I admire her for it. I agree as well. Everyone is responsible for themselves.

You asked a wrong question. You should have asked if it is ok if all her friends, all the neighbors in 60s and 70s, all the sick people of younger age, all the doctors in emergency rooms, all the people who need a surgery, but cannot get because ERs are full are under the risk, just because some 20 y.old dude wants to go to the beach.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#619

Post by SomeoneFromCA »

glofish wrote: post #615
risaacs99 wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sending kids to school is about keeping the teachers, administrators, and their dependents and contacts safe. It's about grandparents who care for the children and would be at risk. I don't think it's about your mom.

now that there really captures the groupthink that permeates government actions someone's mom and people in general only matter if they are scared if they are not scared then they have no rights, their opinion does not matter and they must do what the scared people want, being scared and weak gives you more rights than being strong

Sounds like some propaganda for hillbillies.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#620

Post by SomeoneFromCA »

martindbp wrote: post #511
SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? 4500 hundred extra death a year is not insignifcant.

90000 people die in Sweden every year. Shutting down the economy for a 5% increase is not reasonable.

No one shut down economy for exteneded period of time in Norway or Finland, they did just intermittently and now they have exactly same economic situation Sweden. Not worse, not better, but much less death. So 5000 people are dead for nothing. Even more importantly, explicit denying medical care to everyone after, say, 75 y.o. will save lots of money which can be redirected to fun stuff (lowering taxes etc.), and your death rate will barely go up; no one does that though, because that would be considered completely inhumane.
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