Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains • Hacker News Board

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#91

Post by frereubu » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 10:00 PM UTC

usrusr wrote: post #62

frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

How do you completely lock down a care home? It's a labor-intensive industry and you can't just put care on hold for a few weeks like you could with an assembly line. The only way to keep a virus like this away from care homes is to keep it away from friends and families of caretakers and from their friends and families. You can't focus prevention when you are dealing with presymptomatic spread.

Ban visits, quarantine any goods coming into the building for three days, strict hygiene requirements for staff entering and existing the building. It would be really difficult, but when the other alternative is letting a highly contagious virus spread rapidly through a susceptible population I'd say that's worth it. As others have pointed out in this thread, strict lockdowns haven't prevented a horrifying number of deaths in care homes.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#92

Post by frereubu » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 10:02 PM UTC

celticninja wrote: post #54

frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

I'm not sure that the UK has had no strategy, it's just that the strategy they chose may possibly be worse than no strategy at all.

As someone more erudite than me put it, the UK has "government by press release". They may have tactics, but no strategy.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#93

Post by claudeganon » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 10:03 PM UTC

frereubu wrote: post #5

One thing missing from this report is that a large proportion of the deaths were in care homes, and ministers have publicly stated that not entirely locking down care homes from the outset was a big mistake. If they had done this, the figures may well not look nearly as bad. Also, what will count is not the first few months but the entire lifetime of this pandemic. I'll be interested to see where countries are a year…

Taiwan. 7 people have died. No major economic impact. Now exporting masks to other countries. No brushing aside deaths of the elderly and disabled as if those people’s lives were nothing.

Their’s was demonstrably the best strategy and everyone else is just making excuses.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#94

Post by fulafel » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 10:03 PM UTC

triceratops wrote: post #78

oxymoran wrote: post #53

I find this article a little disingenuous and here is why: Sweden-5420 deaths out of a population of 10 million while no lock down. Michigan-6005 deaths out of a population of 10 million and we have been locked down since mid March. To be clear, I was in favor of the lockdown at first and I still am in favor of keeping things like bars and casinos closed but it’s become clear that the virus doesn’t have much affect o…

Sweden and Michigan have about an equal number of cases (~74k) but Sweden has a better survival rate so far. Is it possible Sweden just has a healthier population than Michigan? Life expectancy in Sweden is about 4 years higher than Michigan. This also means their population skews older, but means people are healthier on average.

Sweden also has better healthcare. Are there stats on survival rates of patients with serious symptoms?

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#95

Post by ptx » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 10:07 PM UTC

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

Taiwan has 7 COVID-19 deaths[1]. It seems far-fetched to suppose that they would be somehow covering up the 12000 additional deaths that would be required to reach Sweden's per-capita numbers.

South Korea would have had to neglect to report 99% of COVID-19 deaths.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#96

Post by amiga_500 » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 10:07 PM UTC

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

This is particularly bad for the UK as our numbers were already dire.

Some may be due to the halt of the NHS for other stuff.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#97

Post by kevin_thibedeau » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 10:08 PM UTC

makomk wrote: post #80

watwut wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you think flu deaths are counted? Because that numbers shows also estimated death people - people who were never even tested on flu. Like, percentage of pneumonia deaths. And they contain also people also having other health issues and not just flu.

Flu deaths are counted as the number of people who die because of the flu - that is, they represent people who wouldn't have died if they didn't catch the flu. This is of course an estimate, and there are some pretty fundamental reasons why it has to be such as the fact that flu causes heart attacks and strokes but also just happens to be present in patients who have one for unrelated reasons, but it should be a pret…

The CDC includes pneumonia deaths during flu season because not all death certificates record influenza as the cause.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#98

Post by atourgates » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 10:09 PM UTC

frereubu wrote: post #91

usrusr wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you completely lock down a care home? It's a labor-intensive industry and you can't just put care on hold for a few weeks like you could with an assembly line. The only way to keep a virus like this away from care homes is to keep it away from friends and families of caretakers and from their friends and families. You can't focus prevention when you are dealing with presymptomatic spread.

Ban visits, quarantine any goods coming into the building for three days, strict hygiene requirements for staff entering and existing the building. It would be really difficult, but when the other alternative is letting a highly contagious virus spread rapidly through a susceptible population I'd say that's worth it. As others have pointed out in this thread, strict lockdowns haven't prevented a horrifying number of…

I don't think it was really possible in the early stages of the pandemic, and might not be possible now.

Care workers have to go in and out of elderly care facilities. We still don't have much data on how good COVID-19 testing at tracking pre-symptomatic cases, but the data points at "certainly not 100% accurate".

Even if you tested _every_ care worker before they entered the building, you'd likely miss some asymptomatic cases who could go on to transmit to the elderly. Nevermind the fact that earlier in the pandemic, the kinds of near-instant tests we have now (allbet with unimpressive reliability) weren't available.

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#99

Post by londons_explore » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 10:10 PM UTC

leto_ii wrote: post #90

bjourne wrote: post #68

You have to look at the excess deaths figures. That is, how many usually dies from January to June in a normal year and compare that to how many extra that died in 2020. For Sweden the excess deaths almost exactly matches the number of Covid deaths, give or take 10%. That is not the case for many other countries. For example, the UK had almost twice the number of excess deaths as Covid deaths in a few weeks in April.…

This is an important observation. In the Netherlands, where I live, I've had a number of people look at me with great surprise and mistrust when I mentioned that the Dutch have done a terrible job with this epidemic. The Guardian plots show that the Netherlands is one of the worst when it comes to under-reporting. This is not to say however that the Swedes have done a good job. While their numbers are credible, their…

In an average year, 13/1000 Swedes die anyway.

Considering COVID has closed many of life's fun things, there will be an entire generation of people who have effectively "lost" a year of the things they hoped they would do in their lifetime. By stating open, Sweden might decrease life expectancy in years, but increase it in terms of 'things achieved in a lifetime'

Re: Sweden: higher Covid-19 death rate while failing to collect on economic gains

#100

Post by thepangolino » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 10:11 PM UTC

Sweden has half the COVID death of Belgium despite having had some of the more lax restrictions.

The only reason Sweden is facing economic hardship is because of its starting position and the fact most of the world decided to go full retard on their own.