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We should stop running away from radiation

bbc.co.uk

61–70 of 130 posts

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#61
post #28

The idea that we have a sufficient quantity of accurate data about Chernobyl to make sweeping claims about its impact on people living there, including how many died as a result, is frankly idiotic. We do not and never will have such data. This is a pernicious meme that frequently recurs on this board. Reject it. (The Fukushima disaster, on the other hand, has occurred in the open within the context of a reasonably f…

I wouldn't take the absolute numbers seriously either. But I think, after so many investigations and 20 years worth of post soviet health statistics, we can reasonably assume that the effects were not as bad as initially feared.

Also, your argument could be turned on its head. If there hadn't been the kind of secrecy and attempts to cover up what had happened, way fewer people would have been affected.

That said, I'm not a big fan of nuclear because I don't like making commitments for thousands of years. A lot can happen in that timeframe. Wars, corrupt regimes, a collapse of our entire industrial society, etc.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#62
post #46

The author points out the solution for storing nuclear end products, its quite brilliant! 100m under a pro-nuclear persons house! Problem solved! Maybe those who think nuclear energy is very green might join the author? I am sure we can find a few 10,000, and then we have room for all that nuclear waste. The media overhyping things is nothing new and doesn't mean anything. It doesn't mean nuclear power is safe, for e…

I am sure there are many people who would not mind at all. Hold an auction for an amount per month would be paid to live there, so that people are compensated for the perceived risk.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#63

How about all those people dying from cancer years later all over Russia and Central Europe? Radiation does not kill instantly, it causes cancer, which kills years later. Stop spreading such nonsense articles, please! Just because the immediate impact is comparatively low, that doesn't mean it's harmless.

Precisely. Saying that Chernobyl killed only 43 people is kind of like saying Hitler didn't really kill that many Jews.

Misclicked and really meant to downvote - your argument doesn't make any sense, because you're saying that 43 is not 'a bit' when compared to 6 million. 43 people really is only a small amount, and while it still is horrible for those involved, there are many things that kill many more people daily over which no fuss is made at all.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#64
post #43
post #28

The idea that we have a sufficient quantity of accurate data about Chernobyl to make sweeping claims about its impact on people living there, including how many died as a result, is frankly idiotic. We do not and never will have such data. This is a pernicious meme that frequently recurs on this board. Reject it. (The Fukushima disaster, on the other hand, has occurred in the open within the context of a reasonably f…

The idea that we have a sufficient quantity of accurate data about Chernobyl to make sweeping claims about its impact on people living there, including how many died as a result, is frankly idiotic. We do not and never will have such data. Okay, I'm just going to set your claim against the introduction to the report ( http://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/2008/Advance_copy_Annex_... ) referenced in the BBC article. The…

Yes, that's right: Working from outside of the USSR, they convened a group and produced an admittedly limited account of the incident. Three years later, when the Soviet regime finally requested (limited) help, and they did their best. A decade later, they revisited the issue, and made the decision not to use the results from many other studies that had been attempted, because they weren't necessarily scientifically rigorous.

That was probably right decision, and I find it entirely plausible that they did great work given the enormous limitations that they faced, but there is only so much you can do when the authoritarian regime standing in your way happens to finally disintegrate, years later.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#65
post #43
post #28

The idea that we have a sufficient quantity of accurate data about Chernobyl to make sweeping claims about its impact on people living there, including how many died as a result, is frankly idiotic. We do not and never will have such data. This is a pernicious meme that frequently recurs on this board. Reject it. (The Fukushima disaster, on the other hand, has occurred in the open within the context of a reasonably f…

The idea that we have a sufficient quantity of accurate data about Chernobyl to make sweeping claims about its impact on people living there, including how many died as a result, is frankly idiotic. We do not and never will have such data. Okay, I'm just going to set your claim against the introduction to the report ( http://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/2008/Advance_copy_Annex_... ) referenced in the BBC article. The…

That sounds naive given the political environment.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#66
post #50

I am going to make a completely unscientific argument now that I know the HN readership will look down upon, but I think it captures why we can't build nuclear plants. First, nuclear power started out as a cold war thing; they built nuclear plants because of one very interesting side-product required to build nuclear bombs. These days in those countries that already have nuclear weapons, that's a secondary concern -…

I mostly agree with you here, but I do think the technology has advanced since the Fukishima (or certainly Chernobyl) were built. Those plants are fairly ancient. Newer facilities have much safer designs. What we need to do with both nuclear and conventional power facilities is close everything from pre-1985 or so. The pollution coming from the dirty, grandfathered-in (to higher pollution) coal plants in the South, f…

I mostly agree with you here, but I do think the technology has advanced since the Fukishima (or certainly Chernobyl) were built. Those plants are fairly ancient. Newer facilities have much safer designs.

I don't like commenting on things I know only a little about, however, one thing is getting overlooked when people make this argument.

The newer designs are usually PWRs which are stable by design as loss of water or power slows down the reaction. Unfortunately, they are expensive to build (billions of dollars) and have a limited life due to the challenges of containing pressure with metals exposed to radiation. This makes them barely economic over their lifetime at todays energy prices.

The UK has allowed the planning and building of new PWRs. Unfortunately, the companies involved are reluctant to go ahead without some sort of subsidy or carbon tax.

If any of the above is wrong, I'd like to be corrected. However, I feel this is a valid point that is rarely made.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#67
post #59
post #50

I am going to make a completely unscientific argument now that I know the HN readership will look down upon, but I think it captures why we can't build nuclear plants. First, nuclear power started out as a cold war thing; they built nuclear plants because of one very interesting side-product required to build nuclear bombs. These days in those countries that already have nuclear weapons, that's a secondary concern -…

I lived in Germany when Chernobyl blew. I'm pretty aware of nuclear risks. But...should we get rid of hydroelectric as well? Banqiao Dam killed 26,000 people, immediately instead of years later, and there weren't any little pills they could take to prevent it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam There have been a lot of other dam failures that killed people, too. And don't get me started on coal. I've seen estim…

There are a lot of reactors which are much more dangerous than the one in Chernobyl. The ones using Plutonium, the breeders, the ones with large storage sites full of spent fuel, etc.

The Thorium reactor has a lot of problems. Engineering problems that are not solved.

Remember the German Thorium reactor, the HTR 300. It died with a whimper.

What we really don't need is giving nuclear engineers more money to create huge nightmares.

The first thing before ANY nuclear engineer could come back with another idea is to provide us with a safe storage technology and clean up failed attempts like in Asse II.

Believing that the next hundred billions on new nuclear technology will be better spend than the last ones, is just naive. Especially given that the basic question of storing the waste is totally unsolved. The US abandoned now Yucca. Germany has also no storage site. Instead the waste is piling up in totally inadequate places - spent fuel is stored in pools near reactors and in dry storage near reactors.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... children still affected by the Chernobyl disaster. The stories she told of kids powering through cancer would reduce most men to tears. You can go to hospitals anywhere in the world and hear exactly the same stories. Kids get cancer. It sucks, but it's a fact of life. Is there any evidence that these cancers were caused by Chernobyl?

Yes. - Between 1970 and 2001 thyroid cancer incidence rates in Belarus increased from 0.4 per 100 000 to 3.5 per 100 000 among males (+775%) and from 0.8 per 100 000 to 16.2 per 100 000 among females (+1925%). - The relative increases in areas with ‘higher exposure’ from the Chernobyl disaster exceeded those in ‘lower exposure’ areas with marked increases in thyroid cancer incidence rate ratios among both genders and…

Relative increases seem insane... But overall - that is still a low number. More are killed by their own parents for various reasons.

I'd really like that we put things into perspective a bit.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#69
post #67
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lived in Germany when Chernobyl blew. I'm pretty aware of nuclear risks. But...should we get rid of hydroelectric as well? Banqiao Dam killed 26,000 people, immediately instead of years later, and there weren't any little pills they could take to prevent it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam There have been a lot of other dam failures that killed people, too. And don't get me started on coal. I've seen estim…

There are a lot of reactors which are much more dangerous than the one in Chernobyl. The ones using Plutonium, the breeders, the ones with large storage sites full of spent fuel, etc. The Thorium reactor has a lot of problems. Engineering problems that are not solved. Remember the German Thorium reactor, the HTR 300. It died with a whimper. What we really don't need is giving nuclear engineers more money to create hu…

We don't need storage sites. If we unstuck our heads from our asses we can just burn most of the waste.

And you're talking like nuclear engineers are some sort of freaks just waiting to unleash the next horror upon the world.

The fact is that if we want to realize UN millennium goals we need more energy. If we want to help poor asians and africans, we need more energy. If we want everybody to own a Xbox, a car and a week of vacation per year - we need more energy.

Basically only obstacle in our path of increased welfare and general well being (peace also!) on the world is access to more, cheaper energy.

And newsflash - hydro, solar and wind won't cut it. They might if we build a world supergrid. But that won't happen for at least 40 years (If we had necessary tech today - it would take 20-40 years to get it built).

So what are you proposing? Or are you just washing your hands and laying off the burden from your soul?

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#70
post #67
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lived in Germany when Chernobyl blew. I'm pretty aware of nuclear risks. But...should we get rid of hydroelectric as well? Banqiao Dam killed 26,000 people, immediately instead of years later, and there weren't any little pills they could take to prevent it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam There have been a lot of other dam failures that killed people, too. And don't get me started on coal. I've seen estim…

There are a lot of reactors which are much more dangerous than the one in Chernobyl. The ones using Plutonium, the breeders, the ones with large storage sites full of spent fuel, etc. The Thorium reactor has a lot of problems. Engineering problems that are not solved. Remember the German Thorium reactor, the HTR 300. It died with a whimper. What we really don't need is giving nuclear engineers more money to create hu…

Well that is definitely a minority viewpoint. Chernobyl is widely considered to be a ridiculously bad design by modern standards. For one thing, it had no containment dome at all. For another, the design caused the reaction to speed up as the fuel got hotter. All modern designs do the opposite: as fuel gets hotter, the reaction slows.

For current production reactors, that's enough to buy time but not enough to completely prevent meltdown. Some more advanced reactors can't melt down, due to this effect. Pebble beds are one. Another is the Integral Fast Breeder, which we had working at the Argonne national laboratory back in the 90s. It was so safe, they shut down the cooling system entirely, twice, and each time the reaction just quietly stopped. The reactor was also designed to be proliferation-resistant.

If you're concerned about nuclear waste, fast breeders are the way to go. Instead of using one percent of the potential of the fuel, like current reactors do, they use it all. They eat nuclear waste and depleted uranium. Clinton was anti-nuclear and shut the project down, so now instead of using depleted uranium for fuel, we shoot it at people to secure oil supplies.

Personally, I'm not that concerned about the waste. From the book Physics for Future Presidents, page 176:

"Colorado, where much of the uranium is obtained, is a geologically active region, full of faults and fissures and mountains rising out of the prairie, and its surface rock contains about a billion tons of uranium. The radioactivity in this uranium is 20 times greater than the legal limit for Yucca Mountain, and it will take more than 13 billion years--not just a few hundred--for the radioactivity to drop by a factor of 10. Yet water that runs through, around, and over this radioactive rock is the source of the Colorado River, which is used for drinking water in much of the Wst, including Los Angeles and San Diego. And unlike the glass pellets that store the waste in Yucca Mountain, most of the uranium in the Colorado ground is water-soluble. Here is the absurd-sounding conclusion: if the Yucca Mountain facility were at full capacity and all the waste leaked out of its glass containment immediately and managed to reach groundwater, the danger would still be 20 times less than that currently posed by natural uranium leaching into the Colorado River."

Of course we're actually storing wastes on site. I'm not sure why the anti-nuclear people who shut down Yucca thought that was better. But it does have the advantage of leaving the fuel available for fast breeders.

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