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Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

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Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#41
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember JUMP? They were acquired for $200M like, a year and a half ago. As far as I can tell, they don't exist anymore.

Jump bikes still exist. Not sure what you're on about.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52832791

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#42
post #31
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

I saw someone online saying how they didn't get their ranch with their pizza, so they called up customer service and eventually got a whole new pizza out of the deal. I understand it sucks to not get your ranch, but come on...

I had a few friends in customer support. This happened all the time.

If you spend too long going back and forth with a customer, the salary-based calculation of what it costs the company doesn’t make sense. So you give it to them free. But then it’s not like you have any margins that those come out of.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#43
post #22

What's Postmates moat? Having never used it, I don't necessarily see the 2.6b$ value in a smaller delivery app that is only really used in some areas of the US. Though I'm sure there is something I'm missing and 2.6b$ is probably less expensive than the cost of pricing Postmates out of the market especially considering it's an all stocks deal. It's just that delivery seems to be easily scalable and easy to just dump…

That I/random users use it. Why? I don't know. They were early to the game and I stuck with it I guess

But that's the thing though, that's a very small advantage when it comes to a cutthroat sector like food delivery imo. I know I just use whatever app has free delivery or 25% off at that particular moment since it's almost frictionless to switch between apps. Even using different messaging apps is much harder.

That applies to all delivery apps and access to capital is really the only determining factor of success in that industry, but Postmates was also lacking in that regard.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#44
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of all the services I've tried in this space, only Postmates lets you request items from businesses they aren't partnered with. This was a huge win once when I needed groceries delivered quickly.

So they can go to the restaurant and order for you? That's interesting. I can't imagine it being very efficient or very fast though, how do they manage to not lose tens of minutes per order on non partnered restaurants/stores?

My guess would be that they make up for it in lots of fees :) Our $6 purchase ended up being ~$25 (following a $150 precharge haha).

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#45

They offered $5B for Grubhub who has 30% market share, and now $2.65B for Postmates who has just 8% market share.

Grubhub is mostly big in NYC. Doordash has the most marketshare at around 45% and good coverage in the US. Postmates and Uber Eats were battling for 3rd place. Postmates seems to have more restaurants on board along with branching out into drinks and convenience stores, and I believe general shopping in certain regions.

GrubHub is huge in Chicago, in fact it was started at University of Chicago and is still based in Chicago.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#46
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

i think this round of delivery startups were mostly driven by concentrated capital desperate for return (plus not enough diversity of thought to recognize unconventional but interesting bets), because anyone who remembers webvan knows that the economics of last-mile logistics hasn't changed substantially with faster/ubiquitous computing and mobile.

mobile does increase availability slightly and reduces friction a little, but those weren't the core problems that needed solving to make a successful business in the space. even uber's outsourcing of capital costs wasn't a major problem that needed solving to unlock the market.

you can't beat last-mile logistics by throwing more marketing at it.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#47
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

To be honest, this seems perfect. Your description of this business fits pretty well with the rest of Uber's business aka "burning investor money to never make a profit".

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#48
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

I think it will make sense when cities will have a better infrastructure for targeted deliveries. I'm thinking routes for drones and clear delivery spots. Would not be surprised 30y from now most homes won't have kitchen anymore. You'll have an access where a drone can come in an deliver whatever you ordered.

I do not look forward to that kind of future. As someone who has worked in food preparation, meals are usually quite unhealthy because they are designed to taste great. I can’t imagine eating delivered meals daily is good for your long term health. You would be surprised that seemingly healthy food, when made at a restaurant, is often anything but.

Re: Uber, Postmates Agree on $2.65B All-Stock Deal

#49
post #24

Food delivery is a terrible business. M&A won’t make it better. I worked at LivingSocial in 2012/2013. We used to joke that “we lose money on every transaction but make it up in scale.” Takeout and Delivery was one of the last bets the company made. Basically food delivery. The customer service load is huge, the services aren’t really differentiated, and you have to both pay the driver enough for it to be worth it an…

I think it will make sense when cities will have a better infrastructure for targeted deliveries. I'm thinking routes for drones and clear delivery spots. Would not be surprised 30y from now most homes won't have kitchen anymore. You'll have an access where a drone can come in an deliver whatever you ordered.

> Would not be surprised 30y from now most homes won't have kitchen anymore. You'll have an access where a drone can come in an deliver whatever you ordered.

I suspect you vastly underestimate how cheap and time effective cooking at home can be. My girlfriend and I just mealprepped 8 meals for $30. Took 15min of active work.

The whole week we both get a healthy balanced meal that takes 2min to prepare.

No delivery company can compete with that. Drones or no drones.

Edit to answer questions below:

We don’t mind eating 4 identical lunches. Saves you thinking about it. We use dinners and snacks for variety. This week it’s a pork roast with string beans and fingerling potatoes. Put potatoes in a baking pan, stick roast on a rack above the taters, stick in oven for 45min. Cook the beans in water.

About 15min of active prep time, another 5min to portion it out, 5min to stick dishes in dishwasher. Watch netflix or hangout while food cooks itself.

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