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We should stop running away from radiation

bbc.co.uk

41–50 of 130 posts

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#41
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In that case, what were you referring to when posting the chart: Fukushima or Chernobyl? If Chernobyl, the article mentions only a small number of fatalities, but I've read in many places over the years that thousands of people (especially in Belarus, who got the worst of it) have since died from cancer and other radiation induced diseases. I've also seen documentaries about the many sick and deformed children that w…

Fukushima -- Chernobyl, I believe, was misrepresented there. However, it's misrepresented everywhere.

Ah, we are in agreement then.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Radiation does not kill instantly, it causes cancer, which kills years later. Radiation is a carcinogen, yes. But it turns out that radiation is a really puny carcinogen. A radiation dosage which will probably kill you if delivered rapidly -- 4 Sieverts -- has only a small chance of causing cancer -- about 10% (and an even lower chance of causing lethal cancer).

Would you happen to have a source for this? I'm finding it hard to imagine how a study like this can even take place given that there have (probably) not been many survivors among those who have received a dose of 4 Sieverts.

I don't know of any studies on people with such large doses of radiation, no -- but it's believed that cancer risk from radiation is proportional to the dosage received, and lots of studies have been done looking at populations in areas with higher/lower levels of background radiation.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#43
post #28

The idea that we have a sufficient quantity of accurate data about Chernobyl to make sweeping claims about its impact on people living there, including how many died as a result, is frankly idiotic. We do not and never will have such data. This is a pernicious meme that frequently recurs on this board. Reject it. (The Fukushima disaster, on the other hand, has occurred in the open within the context of a reasonably f…

The idea that we have a sufficient quantity of accurate data about Chernobyl to make sweeping claims about its impact on people living there, including how many died as a result, is frankly idiotic. We do not and never will have such data.

Okay, I'm just going to set your claim against the introduction to the report (http://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/2008/Advance_copy_Annex_...) referenced in the BBC article.

   There has been an unprecedented effort by the international
   community to assess the magnitude and characteristics
   of the health effects due to the radiation exposure
   resulting from the accident. As early as August 1986, a
   widely attended international gathering, the “Post-Accident
   Review Meeting”, was convened in Vienna. The resulting
   report of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group
   (INSAG) contained a limited but essentially correct early
   account of the accident and its expected radiological consequences
   [I31]. In May 1988, the International Scientific
   Conference on the Medical Aspects of the Accident at the
   Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant [I32] held in Kiev summarized
   the available information at the time and confirmed
   that some children had received high doses to the thyroid. In
   May 1989, scientists obtained a more comprehensive insight
   into the scale of the consequences of the accident at an ad
   hoc meeting convened at the time of the 38th session of
   UNSCEAR [G15, K25]. In October 1989, the former Soviet
   Union formally requested “an international experts’ assessment”
   and, as a result, the International Chernobyl Project
   (ICP) [I5] was launched in early 1990; its conclusions and
   recommendations were presented at an International Conference
   held in Vienna, 21–24 May 1991 [I5]. Many national
   and international initiatives7 followed aimed at developing a
   better understanding of the accident consequences and in
   assisting in their mitigation. The results of these initiatives
   were presented at the 1996 International Conference on One
   Decade After Chernobyl8 [I29]. There was a broad agreement
   on the extent and character of the consequences.

   ...

   The objective of the present annex is to provide an
   authoritative and definitive review of the health effects
   observed to date that are attributable to radiation exposure
   due to the accident and to clarify the potential risk projections,
   taking into account the levels, trends and patterns of
   radiation dose to the exposed populations. The Committee
   has evaluated the relevant new information that has become
   available since the 2000 Report, in order to determine
   whether the assumptions used previously to assess the radiological
   consequences are still valid. In addition, it recognized
   that some issues merited further scrutiny and that its
   work to provide the scientific basis for a better understanding
   of the radiation‑related health and environmental effects
   of the Chernobyl accident needed to continue. The information
   considered included the behaviour and trends of the
   long‑lived radionuclides in foodstuff and the environment in
   order to improve the estimates of exposure of relevant population
   groups, and the results of the latest follow‑up studies
   of the health of the exposed groups. The effects of radiation
   on plants and animals following the Chernobyl accident are
   discussed separately in annex E, “Effects of ionizing radiation
   on non‑human biota”. Other effects of the accident, in
   particular, distress and anxiety, and socio‑economic effects,
   were considered by the Chernobyl Forum [W5] but are
   outside the Committee’s remit.

   The Committee, in general, bases its assessments on
   reports appearing in peer‑reviewed scientific literature and
   on information submitted officially by Governments in
   response to its requests. However, the results of many of
   the studies related to the Chernobyl accident have been
   presented at scientific meetings without formal scientific
   peer review. The Committee decided that it would only
   make use of such information when it could judge that the
   results and the underlying work were scientifically and
   technically sound.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#44
post #3
post #2

People are worried about cancer from electricity, phones, microwaves, terrorists, etc. Silent/Unseen killers are the scariest kind, almost as if it's a good bogeyman. Japanese can resolve this hysteria after seeing economic costs. However, the governments in lawsuit prone countries will go out of their way to make it very safe in almost everything. eg low speed limits, many speed bumps, background checks, etc. Otherw…

governments control the courts; they exempt themselves from liability for things all the time. for instance: try suing the cops in the US because they didn't do enough to protect you.

Most constitutions in free countries establish some kind of system for checks and balances of power.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#45
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen the actual numbers of this, and seen them put into perspective? I'd strongly recommend looking at http://xkcd.org/radiation/ -- he puts the data into an easy to relate to format.

The biggest problem with that chart is that it mixes different time scales, which it only indicates in the text, not in the visual comparisons. Take one of the ones that measures an hour's exposure and multiply it by 24. Or a day and multiply it by 365. Suddenly the visual comparisons look much, much different.

As mentioned in the BBC article though, doing that kind of math does not lead to an accurate result, due to the fact that your body is constantly healing. It's the bursts of radiation that are most damaging.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#46
The author points out the solution for storing nuclear end products, its quite brilliant! 100m under a pro-nuclear persons house! Problem solved!

Maybe those who think nuclear energy is very green might join the author? I am sure we can find a few 10,000, and then we have room for all that nuclear waste.

The media overhyping things is nothing new and doesn't mean anything. It doesn't mean nuclear power is safe, for example. Unfortunately, real journalism has all but disappeared from the world, to be replaced by what we'd refer to as trolling or link-whoring online.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#47
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by horrible? I think it makes sense to be concerned about anything you're subjected to that you're not sure is safe.

Concerned? Yes. Panicked? Probably not. I think the media's presentation of the situation is more the latter.

Perhaps the authorities are to blame for this problem. They are far from open about the issues and the plant has a long history of record falsification and other shenanigans. Now we get to read about a faulty initial installation of the steelwork with a botch job repair.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#48
What makes me uneasy about this kind of call is that the situation at Fukushima is ungoing, but we hear a lot of "the levels are ridiculous right now, what you're scarred of?".

The people running away or worrying about the situation don't care so much about the levels now. They care about the levels if/when shit happens, and only use the radiation seen now to check how good things are handled. And for now it's not as if tepco's engineers, as goog as they are, are yet mastering the situation.

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#49
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen the actual numbers of this, and seen them put into perspective? I'd strongly recommend looking at http://xkcd.org/radiation/ -- he puts the data into an easy to relate to format.

Yes, I mostly understand the scale of radiation we're currently dealing with in Japan, and it's mostly on the "safer" side. However, my issue is with taking an accident that deformed countless children, caused countless cases of cancer, and in general completely devastated the lives of (hundreds of) thousands of people - and essentially using it in a "How I Stopped Worrying and Love the Bomb" argument to get people t…

It was a great tragedy. But neither was the the number of deformed children nor the number of cases of cancer "countless". There have been put numbers on it [1].

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster#Assessing_th...

Re: We should stop running away from radiation

#50
I am going to make a completely unscientific argument now that I know the HN readership will look down upon, but I think it captures why we can't build nuclear plants.

First, nuclear power started out as a cold war thing; they built nuclear plants because of one very interesting side-product required to build nuclear bombs. These days in those countries that already have nuclear weapons, that's a secondary concern - but this is where it came from. And for countries that don't yet have nuclear weapons, that's the reason they want to build them.

Second, the accident in Chernobyl. Hold your statistics and studies. Just pause for a moment. Think about this accident. All children all over Europe were told to stay inside for a few days. And take Iodine. Any technology that is able to cause that is not fit to generate power. In fact the only man made processes that can cause such an event are nuclear weapons and nuclear power plants.

Fail safe plants unfortunately don't exist - they're not fail safe, as evident in Fukushima. Does the chain reaction stop when everything fails? No? Then it's not fail-safe. Obviously.

I am not a worrier - but when you're playing with forces that cannot be controlled with the technology we have, you have to do the smart thing and skip them for now. There's plenty of alternatives - I think the nuclear thing is a distraction from them, and kept alive by a very active lobby.

I am happy to change my opinion if you come up with a new process that's actually fail-safe, that's actually guaranteed to not leak radiation, and that doesn't produce nuclear waste.

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