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The Car, Reinvented

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41–50 of 91 posts

Re: The Car, Reinvented

#41

> We will be talking exclusively about electric cars. he compared cost, performance, regulations, but I didn't see him tackle the issue of range and recharge times not even in passing. > It is the only way forward. with claims like these, skipping the two major drawbacks seems quite intellectually dishonest.

Why would Apple's hypothetical car need to solve problems endemic to the vertical itself?

Electrical is still "the only way forward" for automakers—politically, due to emissions regulations—whether consumers are willing to accept those drawbacks or not (i.e. whether it's profitable to build EV cars or not.)

Auto-makers just have to bite the bullet and accept lower profits as people refuse to compromise for a while, until those same consumers later realize that governments won't be letting them have things any other way.

Conveniently for Apple, their strategy has always been to leave enough of a profit margin for themselves (and market to those who can afford to pay it), that the business will pay back its capital outlay even from only niche uptake. Apple isn't Tesla, with a plan to eventually sell an EV car into every garage; they don't need general market adoption, just adoption by conspicuous consumers.

Re: The Car, Reinvented

#42
> "No industry is pulled down more by the burden of the past than the automotive industry. Also, no industry is slower at adapting its practices — design, manufacturing, marketing. The main reasons are an ossified culture and the amount of capital required to launch a new model"

I think this is fair, but incomplete. (Disclaimer, I work for General Motors, these are my opinions alone).

It is hard to make things work. It is harder to make things work consistently. It is even harder to make things that will work consistently when you don't have control of the thing and users can use and abuse it in unforeseen ways.

Everyone who has spent more than a little time in a car has something they can complain about, regardless of the brand. Now think about how many parts are implicated in that defect. Now think about how many parts are in a car. A very very small number of defective or under-designed or mis-designed parts can lead to a bad experience.

Think about testing. Many people on HN are programmers or otherwise involved in software development. Think about writing tests for your code. How many end-to-end integration tests do you have? How many unit tests? What happens when you change platforms or update middleware? Tests in the real world are EXPENSIVE! When you test a new car, you're not testing 1 cheap part from a run of 1,000,000 parts; you're testing 1 expensive prototype part from a run of 10 parts.

The article touches on the dealership experience. For legacy automakers, there are laws in place that prevent them from ditching their dealers.

Legacy automakers also have agreements with labor unions. Adopting new work processes takes patience and understanding in the best of times. Re-arranging work can quickly become confrontational and not collaborative.

The other major partner for OEMs are suppliers. Suppliers do much of the design work, based on specifications from OEMs. Suppliers can sell the same or substantially similar parts, made from the same sub-components to many different OEMs; but the further down the sub-component tree you go, the smaller the profits. Also, if you want to do something crazy like ditch CANbus or upgrade your 12 volt architecture to 48 volts, you'll have to do a lot of work with your supplier base.

Cars aren't judged on the things that work well, they're judged by the things that don't. The car design and manufacturing process is all about limiting and eliminating those things. Uncontrolled changes can cause a huge spill of defects.

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Edit: My main point here is that, Yes, the industry is ossified and slow moving, but you can't just speed up. You have to address the reasons why it is slow moving, and you have to do it WITHOUT RUNNING OUT OF MONEY!

Re: The Car, Reinvented

#43

> We will be talking exclusively about electric cars. he compared cost, performance, regulations, but I didn't see him tackle the issue of range and recharge times not even in passing. > It is the only way forward. with claims like these, skipping the two major drawbacks seems quite intellectually dishonest.

With all the major economies planning to ban ICE vehicles within the next few decades, I don’t really see a good argument for dishonesty here.

Re: The Car, Reinvented

#44

Ownership of the car won’t be necessary. As a passenger car sits idle 95 percent of the time, there are plenty of alternative options. Every time I see someone say "all cars will be rentals in the future" I think if all the people I know who have stuff kicking around in the trunk that they use occasionally but rarely. The automotive version of "every-day carry". Some of it's basic car maintenance stuff. Some of it's…

I have a growing suspicion that car futurism deep down is just about distracting people from thinking about public transit.

Re: The Car, Reinvented

#45

Ownership of the car won’t be necessary. As a passenger car sits idle 95 percent of the time, there are plenty of alternative options. Every time I see someone say "all cars will be rentals in the future" I think if all the people I know who have stuff kicking around in the trunk that they use occasionally but rarely. The automotive version of "every-day carry". Some of it's basic car maintenance stuff. Some of it's…

The sitting idle 95% of the time isn’t super meaningful. What percentage of cars are used at rush hour? Not 100%, but a lot more than 5%. What matters is meeting peak demand, not average demand.

Re: The Car, Reinvented

#46
Why from scratch?

If it was a racing series then you could supply the tyres and insist no parts came from existing cars with everything scratch built. That would make for an interesting race series.

But cars are about how they are made, so final assembly and the supply chain. Having the capital to reinvent that is way too capital intensive for where we are.

Might as well build a web browser in a computer where you have to build your own CPU working back from the HTML specs.

Re: The Car, Reinvented

#47
The biggest reinvention going on right now in cars is in software. Traditional automakers are not seup to do this well because suppliers have their own stack and all the controllers are pretty much fixed outside a firmware flash.

Tesla doesn't follow this approach. Their software is pretty unified and they can update everything including their controllers OTA.

Re: The Car, Reinvented

#48

Ownership of the car won’t be necessary. As a passenger car sits idle 95 percent of the time, there are plenty of alternative options. Every time I see someone say "all cars will be rentals in the future" I think if all the people I know who have stuff kicking around in the trunk that they use occasionally but rarely. The automotive version of "every-day carry". Some of it's basic car maintenance stuff. Some of it's…

I grew up in a small apartment. The car was basically an extra closet for summer sports gear like hiking shoes, poles, etc.

Re: The Car, Reinvented

#49
post #25

If we could start from scratch, shouldn't cars be made of plastic to reduce weight?

Fiberglass car bodies used to be a thing. But they mostly came back to steel now. Fiberglass and I guess plastic isn't good enough for structural parts with the current safety standards. And if you have to support your plastic parts with steel, you lose the weight benefits.

Re: The Car, Reinvented

#50
post #5

> That will require a major overhaul of technologies like the above-mentioned CAN-bus that is four decades old and employed in every car (including, believe it or not, in a Tesla). I don't understand why the author keeps banging on about CAN bus being an old standard. So what? CAN bus is used in the automotive industry because of it reliability and low wire count. Why should it be changed?

I also got the sense that the author didn't know exactly what CAN bus was and how it is used.
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