If there was an actual shortage of workers, wages would be rising for the essential workers.
I may not be an economist, but I think this does not make sense. If there is a worker shortage, do all of the workers go to work and say "give me more money"? I would also contend there would be no reason for say, walmart to suddenly offer more money just because everyone has been ordered to stay home. If there is an _actual_ shortage, increasing pay does not just fabricate workers. I have relatives who are essential…
Real economists use more complicated models -- about which there is genuine debate and enormous uncertainty. So they don't make simple, confident statements.