> Only 5–10 out of every 100 programs successfully produce transformative research, while only 10% of projects are terminated early
How is this different to the regular startup ecosystem in principal? It doesn't look so special to me
Why Does DARPA Work?
51–60 of 98 posts
Re: Why Does DARPA Work?
#52IMO this analysis gets caught up looking for answers in process when the real problem that DARPA solves is a political-economic one. ATT didn't invent the internet not for lack of process, they were extremely innovative. They held back on innovations because they were making huge sums of money overcharging long distance mainframe-mainframe data link rates in the 50's-70's. DARPA succeeded as a trust buster. They have…
How are they becoming less relevant? The DARPA grand challenges have bootstrapped: 1. Self driving cars and got them working as a prototype. [1] 2. A rapid Orbital Launch Program (Still in progress after only one competitor left)[2] 3. A subterranean challenge to map and search underground environments [1] 4. A way to use social networking to find something that is time critical [2] 5. Onion routing which is used in…
How are they less relevant? Well it's a bit left-field but I believe part of the reason why the political climate has become more pro-trust within the last twenty years is that international tech dominance is a national security boon. DARPA is not going to be asked to create ground-breaking tech in search, tracking, social media, tech generally, because the tech giants are already providing more than defense strategists could possibly have hoped for, on the world stage.
So instead we have these contests, the insights of which are handed out to existing companies to help them make incremental improvements. But the Onion browser isn't going to be rolled out to secure political autonomy throughout the world, or small business competitiveness because the data tracking is too valuable for surveillance programs. The national security/intel value of big tech companies has given those companies so much good will that govt officials/politicians have been unwilling to consider innovations that would undermine them.
Re: Why Does DARPA Work?
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
Back in the early days of the Internet, I met some of the Bell Labs people working in that area. What they didn't like about an IP-based network was the jitter. That was totally unacceptable for voice. They wanted something with reliable clocking, and had come up with Datakit. That sends all packets for a given call over the same path, in order. You don't open a virtual circuit unless all the nodes have enough bandwi…
I remember when cross-oceanic long distance calls required both parties to shout as loud as they could into the phone -- and often still not be heard well enough to make out what they were saying. Modern IP telephony often has very high quality voice reproduction (my wi-fi to wi-fi Fi calls sound fantastic), in exchange for some timing issues. Echoes usually get solved in software (usually), and dropouts seem to be t…
You can have ip over time multiplexing data link layer, like the IP over ATM. I believe they were still used in the core voice networking.
IP won because they are more flexible, and open. And the Internet cement the win because of that.
That's way planning ahead too far works less and less successful for bigger and bigger project. Too much dynamic is embed in the long wiring process. It becomes impossible to have a plan work out correctly.
Re: Why Does DARPA Work?
#54Darpa is incredible because it's run by scientists and not managers. A lot of small tech is also run like that, it's so refreshing.
Re: Why Does DARPA Work?
#55My more top level view is that DARPA and such are just side channels to sneakily funnel public money into research. In theory free market should take care of the economy. It's really good at optimizing manufacturing processes and getting stuff as cheaply as possible into hands of as many people as possible. However there's one thing essential to the economy that free market sucks at. It's research. And that's not bec…
Great comment.
I agree that companies would much rather do the exploiting and leave exploration to the government.
Re: Why Does DARPA Work?
#56There's an organization closely resembling DARPA but with exclusive focus on computing. Wish more gets written on it →
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_Advanced_Research...
Re: Why Does DARPA Work?
#57DARPA is effective, but this document paints a rosy picture that is far from the truth. I've been a part of DARPA projects both commerical, university and on the government side. The real process is: 1. PM gets picked due to knowing someone or being a former employee. 2. The biggest test of a program isn't if it's doable or a good idea, but if its able to be transitioned to another government agency with deeper pocke…
What is a better track record? I don't know what that means? More papers? More consumer products? More social impact?
Re: Why Does DARPA Work?
#58DARPA is effective, but this document paints a rosy picture that is far from the truth. I've been a part of DARPA projects both commerical, university and on the government side. The real process is: 1. PM gets picked due to knowing someone or being a former employee. 2. The biggest test of a program isn't if it's doable or a good idea, but if its able to be transitioned to another government agency with deeper pocke…
this aligns with my experience. NIH has a better track record than DARPA, which has a better track record than NSF and the worst is the DOE. The DOE knows this and is trying to cargo-cult DARPA through stuff like ARPA-E. Predictable results have ensued.
What does a better track record mean? More papers? Products? Social impact? Why is DOE the worst?
Re: Why Does DARPA Work?
#59A big part of the "DARPA formula" that doesn't seem to get much treatment here is consistency. DARPA is going to spend a few billion this year, and it spent a few billion last year, and it spent a few billion twenty years ago, and you can feel confident they'll spend a few billion next year. That means that if an academic researcher or similar can position their lab in an area that DARPA likes, they have a good shot at reliable funding for the length of a career. With all the economic uncertainties around research, this is tremendously appealing and will cause a lot of smart people to re-orient their entire research programs around DARPA-friendly subjects [0]. A funding organization that might disappear in a few years, by contrast, will get plenty of grant applications, but won't attract nearly the same level of researcher devotion.
(As a side note, I want to pull out a quote I thought was really nice, hidden a ways in:
"DARPA funds wacky things that go nowhere. DARPA programs have a 5—10% success rate and have included things like jetpacks, earthworm robots, creating fusion with sound waves, spider-man wall climbing, and bomb detecting bees. You can’t cut off just one tail of a distribution.")
[0] Which may, incidentally, go a ways towards explaining why DARPA heads describe their projects as "idea-limited"
Re: Why Does DARPA Work?
#60I would say the key difference between DARPA funding and other research functing is that DARPA PMs have a crystal clear map of the leading edge in a field that's ready for advancement and can target it perfectly with both money and real competition.