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The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

foreignpolicy.com

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Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#91

Post by Klinky »

twblalock wrote: post #39

The article cites the rapid changes to supply chains, particularly Walmart's, as a reason the economy kept going. What else is that, other than the mechanisms of a free market at work? The government didn't tell them how to run their supply chains. Nor did the government tell companies how to shift their workforces to remote work, they just did it, and they did it pretty well, even though some of them had never tried…

The government dictated who could operate in the market. The government doled out trillions in stimulus money to keep the market going with consumer demand.

There are many businesses still teetering on the edge who have not transitioned well. There are many businesses who laid many workers off.

Also there were major failures in how quickly PPE production could get ramped up, I wouldn't call that a supply chain/market success.

There was some corporate autonomy going on, but I wouldn't say we saw a miracle of the "free market" at work.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#92

Post by jacobolus »

ptero wrote: post #87
jacobolus wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> how do you plan to avoid it? Look around the world. Many other countries rich and poor are doing a good job containing the virus, while the US is incompetently flailing. The scale of social/industrial changes necessary to stall a pandemic for long enough to get effective treatments and ideally a vaccine pales in comparison to the changes required to e.g. fight WWII. The US is one of the richest and most industriall…

Can you give examples? I see absolutely no indications that many countries are doing a good job containing the virus. Many are delaying its spread, but they are nowhere near containment; in fact when those countries that supposedly got the COVID under control lift restrictions the disease comes back. I do not see how containment is possible unless you institute a total lockdown and build perimeter around carriers, in…

If you think it’s worth more than a million US deaths so people don’t have to wear masks at grocery stores, take online classes, or stop going to disneyland, movie theaters, concerts, and live sporting events for the next 6-12 months, I don’t know what to tell you.

If you are planning to take no precautions because to do so would be mildly personally inconvenient, I sincerely hope you stay far away from my neighborhood and anywhere I have friends/family living until the pandemic is past.

If your position is representative of your local area, my heart goes out to your neighbors and the first responders and medical workers who will be trying to save their lives at grave personal risk.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#93

Post by omosubi »

Klinky wrote: post #91
twblalock wrote: post #39

The article cites the rapid changes to supply chains, particularly Walmart's, as a reason the economy kept going. What else is that, other than the mechanisms of a free market at work? The government didn't tell them how to run their supply chains. Nor did the government tell companies how to shift their workforces to remote work, they just did it, and they did it pretty well, even though some of them had never tried…

The government dictated who could operate in the market. The government doled out trillions in stimulus money to keep the market going with consumer demand. There are many businesses still teetering on the edge who have not transitioned well. There are many businesses who laid many workers off. Also there were major failures in how quickly PPE production could get ramped up, I wouldn't call that a supply chain/market…

I don't necessarily agree with OP but the degree to which the private market, without any government intervention, was able to get masks into the hands of consumers across the country and world quickly was extremely impressive. I don't remember the exact timeline but there was a non-chain corner store down the street from me that was able to get masks within 3 or 4 weeks of the local shutdown. Of course it would have been much better if the federal government had started ordering masks in January and encouraging their use sooner but was still amazing to witness the invisible hand at work to an almost unseen degree.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#94

Post by carapace »

redis_mlc wrote: post #66
carapace wrote: post #4

The "Economic Revolution" of the title is fascinating and exciting: > About 35 percent of food expenditures—more than $2.5 trillion globally—is up for grabs as consumers shift to dining at home and experimenting with new buying channels. This could be the end of cruel factory farms and the resurgence of smaller, healthier and more humane farming. Check out "SPIN farming": it stands for "Small-Parcel INtensive", a kin…

I come from a farming area. When I read the drivel on HN about urban farming, my response is, "Talk is cheap" and "What are the details?" - 1/4 acre in SV starts at $1 million - farming is a job. My family's small garden (30'x30') was like a part-time job in itself. - when there's an immigrant farm labor shortage and unemployed locals are recruited for farm work, they don't make it to lunch on the first day - it's ba…

It's just something I discovered on the Internet on Thursday. Could be crap for all I know. They have this doc on their website FWIW: "Farming in Philadelphia: Feasibility Analysis and Next Steps" http://www.spinfarming.com/common/pdfs/STF_inst_for_innovati...

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#95

Post by bryan_w »

ivalm wrote: post #43
jackcosgrove wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most wealth is tied up in assets that are shielded from inflation.

Poor people generally have high debt to asset and debt to income. Inflation helps them.

Sure it helps with the debt, but they will still need to buy the $200 bag of milk

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#96

Post by dwaltrip »

tathougies wrote: post #74
mjevans wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you about rational weight of risks. However there is a possibly implicit meaning that you consider the current efforts of preventing transmission of the virus to be overkill. Possibly in other parts of the world a little more measure and give might have been the best response in hindsight, but knowing what we did know then, rather than now, I believe most places* (in the 'first' world) made the correct a…

Overall... The vast majority of the states have done really well. The us average is thrown off by a few states -- not even the largest states. I'm not sure where people get this idea the us has done poorly. New York and surrounds did terribly mainly due to not following issued guidance. But even with them pulling up the average, the us has done fine. If new York had closed down when told and then followed federal gui…

Click through the European countries (France, Italy, Spain, etc) in the link below and look at the graphs of daily new case. Their numbers are way down. The virus looks to be under control.

We haven't done nearly as well in most of the US. Granted, our overall death rate has been lower that many European countries, but I wonder how long that will last.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#97

Post by jjnoakes »

imgabe wrote: post #44
jjnoakes wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The DC shootings were mostly random; are most Chicago shootings random? If not then I don't think it is a fair comparison. I'm not arguing for or against your reasoning, but I know I would be more worried about infrequent random shootings than I would be about frequent targeted shootings, mostly because I believe I'm no one's target.

Even targeted shootings occasionally miss their targets and hit random bystanders. The odds would probably be comparable to being shot by someone choosing victims at random.

Only if the targeted shootings happen in random places. I haven't checked but I'm skeptical that that is the case.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#98

Post by Klinky »

omosubi wrote: post #93
Klinky wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The government dictated who could operate in the market. The government doled out trillions in stimulus money to keep the market going with consumer demand. There are many businesses still teetering on the edge who have not transitioned well. There are many businesses who laid many workers off. Also there were major failures in how quickly PPE production could get ramped up, I wouldn't call that a supply chain/market…

I don't necessarily agree with OP but the degree to which the private market, without any government intervention, was able to get masks into the hands of consumers across the country and world quickly was extremely impressive. I don't remember the exact timeline but there was a non-chain corner store down the street from me that was able to get masks within 3 or 4 weeks of the local shutdown. Of course it would have…

It would have been more impressive if it predicted demand in advance, so they were actually available when needed. It would have been more impressive if there was a domestic source, but that no longer made economical sense in the market. It wasn't 3 - 4 weeks for many, it was months for some. Likely healthcare workers could get them within weeks, but initial supplies ran out, likely costing lives. While government should hold a strategic supply, our private healthcare system should have also put in the orders sooner. I wouldn't deem it a success at all.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#99

Post by nine_k »

ptero wrote: post #28

> With the Spanish flu a century ago, people adapted their individual behavior, but social life proceeded more or less as before. “Public places of amusement” were shuttered, but work and business were little affected overall. This is a pretty telling difference with how we perceive the world today. During the last decades most people living in the "first world" (however you define it today) lost ability to rationall…

The problem with a virus is that it's contagious.

Car accidents do not multiply beyond a very low saturation point (3 cars, 5 cars? Never heard of 500 cars in a crash). Heart disease or old age do not infect people nearby at all.

A virus can quickly spread if not contained. It literally grows by exponent until the majority of susceptible population is infected. At the height of the pandemic in the US (around early May) the weekly number of covid deaths was rather higher than the number of car death, if memory serves (I did check).

If anything, the quarantine was enacted too late in most places, which made it longer. And we are up for a second wave. At least, so say my friends who study the pandemic professionally.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#100

Post by UncleOxidant »

secstate wrote: post #18

Is it just me, or is it a little silly to compare the 1919 world economy pre-mass production/consumerism with today? The irony to most of this shutdown is that "essential" businesses are still open. What the Great Pause has exposed is the shallowness and fragility of mass production/consumerism. During the pandemic of 1919, 80-90% of household income was spent on food and essential needs. Can you even imagine if we s…

About 1/3 of people in the US lived on family farms in 1919. Which pretty much means that 1/3 of the population was already working from home.
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