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The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

foreignpolicy.com

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Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#11

Post by eloff »

lefrenchy wrote: post #8
jennyyang wrote: post #3

It's hard to say that this Great Pause actually "worked", since the governments of the world had to dump trilions into stimulus to make businesses not simply die. We and our children and our childrens' children will be paying for this with our taxes for decades to come. If we have another Pause in the next few months, then it will be the body blow that completely cripples the economy, especially in the US. I can't se…

Why would we (assuming you mean the US) have to pay for this with our taxes, who do we owe the money to? The US issues it’s own currency and we printed money to keep the economy afloat. We don’t owe that debt to anyone? The only reason extra taxes would be needed is to curb inflation.

The question is, was this a free lunch then, or will it be paid for via inflation?

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#12

Post by anoncareer0212 »

lefrenchy wrote: post #8
jennyyang wrote: post #3

It's hard to say that this Great Pause actually "worked", since the governments of the world had to dump trilions into stimulus to make businesses not simply die. We and our children and our childrens' children will be paying for this with our taxes for decades to come. If we have another Pause in the next few months, then it will be the body blow that completely cripples the economy, especially in the US. I can't se…

Why would we (assuming you mean the US) have to pay for this with our taxes, who do we owe the money to? The US issues it’s own currency and we printed money to keep the economy afloat. We don’t owe that debt to anyone? The only reason extra taxes would be needed is to curb inflation.

I know this is the line of argumentation for MMT but it's _very_ sneaky to do that without saying so :(

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#13

Post by DuskStar »

carapace wrote: post #4

The "Economic Revolution" of the title is fascinating and exciting: > About 35 percent of food expenditures—more than $2.5 trillion globally—is up for grabs as consumers shift to dining at home and experimenting with new buying channels. This could be the end of cruel factory farms and the resurgence of smaller, healthier and more humane farming. Check out "SPIN farming": it stands for "Small-Parcel INtensive", a kin…

> This could be the end of cruel factory farms and the resurgence of smaller, healthier and more humane farming.

It could also cement their lead, as there's less signalling to be had when eating at home - so fewer reasons to buy "high-status" food - and easier to compare prices and see what that status costs you. The true believers will continue, but will it be easier or harder for that belief to spread?

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#14

Post by lefrenchy »

eloff wrote: post #11
lefrenchy wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would we (assuming you mean the US) have to pay for this with our taxes, who do we owe the money to? The US issues it’s own currency and we printed money to keep the economy afloat. We don’t owe that debt to anyone? The only reason extra taxes would be needed is to curb inflation.

The question is, was this a free lunch then, or will it be paid for via inflation?

Yeah, I accidentally left that out of my comment. I agree though, inflation is what we need to be careful of.

I don’t like the rhetoric that we will need to pay it back in taxes though because I find it misleading. The real is inflation, not some debt to be paid.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#15

Post by cheerlessbog »

eloff wrote: post #11
lefrenchy wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would we (assuming you mean the US) have to pay for this with our taxes, who do we owe the money to? The US issues it’s own currency and we printed money to keep the economy afloat. We don’t owe that debt to anyone? The only reason extra taxes would be needed is to curb inflation.

The question is, was this a free lunch then, or will it be paid for via inflation?

Inflation is too much demand chasing too little supply. If the money printing simply replaced missing demand, should we expect any inflation?

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#16

Post by dbcurtis »

carapace wrote: post #4

The "Economic Revolution" of the title is fascinating and exciting: > About 35 percent of food expenditures—more than $2.5 trillion globally—is up for grabs as consumers shift to dining at home and experimenting with new buying channels. This could be the end of cruel factory farms and the resurgence of smaller, healthier and more humane farming. Check out "SPIN farming": it stands for "Small-Parcel INtensive", a kin…

> This could be the end of cruel factory farms and the resurgence of smaller, healthier and more humane farming.

Yes, well, you're going to have to show me the math. We eat incredibly well, with decent nutrition (could be better, yes), 365 days a year. On a modest expenditure. Modern agriculture is sufficiently productive that world hunger is a distribution problem, not a production problem. I would like to see improvements in soil management and reductions in chemical usage, certainly, but new production practices you suggest need to pencil out.

If you are going to argue for market forces driving us to smaller farm operations, you need to show me the math. Show me how we get there. And make a net improvement in nutrition for everyone. Without inconveniencing the city dwellers that have forgotten that the phrase "seasonal produce" used to exist.

Go grow some food. Keep good records, and share the results with us.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#17

Post by sandworm101 »

DuskStar wrote: post #9
sandworm101 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Viruses tend to get less deadly over time. There are scientific reasons for this (ie the people most in danger die off earlier, or social adaptations favour spread by more benign strains over the killers). I expect the second wave to be more widespread but result in fewer deaths. The economic impact is more dependent on how we handle the crisis. If we handle it badly, ie how we are now, it will be worse than if we ta…

Well... Both of those causes are bought with lives. So by reducing the number of cases and deaths, we may also have reduced the amount that the virus has attenuated.

When it comes to disease, all progress is bought with lives. We learn by our mistakes, at least we should. Those mistakes do mean dead people. But we still have to act.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#18

Post by secstate »

Is it just me, or is it a little silly to compare the 1919 world economy pre-mass production/consumerism with today?

The irony to most of this shutdown is that "essential" businesses are still open. What the Great Pause has exposed is the shallowness and fragility of mass production/consumerism. During the pandemic of 1919, 80-90% of household income was spent on food and essential needs.

Can you even imagine if we spent 80-90% of our income on essential needs? Well shit, we wouldn't hurt so much when non-essential business was put on pause, that's for sure.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#19

Post by lefrenchy »

anoncareer0212 wrote: post #12
lefrenchy wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would we (assuming you mean the US) have to pay for this with our taxes, who do we owe the money to? The US issues it’s own currency and we printed money to keep the economy afloat. We don’t owe that debt to anyone? The only reason extra taxes would be needed is to curb inflation.

I know this is the line of argumentation for MMT but it's _very_ sneaky to do that without saying so :(

To do what without saying so?

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#20

Post by twblalock »

jennyyang wrote: post #3

It's hard to say that this Great Pause actually "worked", since the governments of the world had to dump trilions into stimulus to make businesses not simply die. We and our children and our childrens' children will be paying for this with our taxes for decades to come. If we have another Pause in the next few months, then it will be the body blow that completely cripples the economy, especially in the US. I can't se…

We will also pay for it in cuts to social services, especially at the state and municipal levels, unless we raise taxes to pay for those too.
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