Predictive has always been used. You can predict a lot of things based on data even on your own. A certain neighborhood downtown could have more criminals. Just tip if the iceberg here
Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first
561–570 of 643 posts
Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first
#562Earlier quoted context omitted.
The logic of your argument seems to be: "There was slavery, so there was systemic racism." Am I right? Then you extruded that argument into: "Because there was slavery, there is also systemic racism today." This is quite a leap, especially considering that slavery was ended on a particular date due to a civil war. Since then, several settlements has been made with racism (systemic or otherwise), some of the most impo…
No I'm asking for you to tell me when systemic racism ended in this country because the crux of your argument is that it has ended and the effects of it historically don't linger today. Can you explain the fact the net worth of a typical white family is $171,000 and the typical net worth of a Black family is $17,150? Are Black people in this country inherently predisposed to making less money or are there systemic re…
>Can you explain the fact the net worth of a typical white family is $171,000 and the typical net worth of a Black family is $17,150?
White people have higher IQ, can therefore take higher paying job, and thus have more money. They also spend their money more wisely.
Same explanation explains why East asians and jews do well, not only in the US but in any society they find themselves. Despite the fact that in the US asians were discriminated against. Japanese were sent to a concentration camp. Jews were massacred during ww2. But somehow being oppressed didn't permanently caused them to be poor performers in modern societies.
Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first
#563Earlier quoted context omitted.
And what are the victims of violent crimes in those neighborhood do in the interim between the take resources from the already strained police departments and use them other for long-term measures? And I'm even assuming they even would have worthwhile results of course despite the premise that such programs would work is given in a matter of factly manner. Put yourself in the shoes of an innocent PoC who's house just…
People saying “defund the police” are not advocating the complete elimination of police forces; they’re advocating for the elimination of the 75-90% of things that police spend their time on that has zero or negative ROI for society. “Responding to legitimate crimes” is not one of those things.
Imagine arguing for a better world, instead of arguing about what your slogan means. You might be able to secure majority support for your policy proposal, instead of... checks YouGov poll again... 16% support, for the phrase "defund the police".
Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first
#564Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem is that these principles work great in a homogeneous society where everyone has some kind of stake in the societal outcome. If you take people with a particular skin color and enslave them and otherwise systematically discriminate against them to varying degrees over the course of 400 years then these principles break down. It is going to take a long, long time -- probably multiple generations -- for Amer…
The reality is that US police kill all races at shockingly high rates. Black people are killed at a higher rate, but they are a minority of those killed. The problem of the US police system is excessive use of force against all races, compounded by racism. Take the UK for example. The UK also has a history of importing slaves, it also has minorities living in poor neighborhoods, it has a similar degree of income ineq…
I think the problem starts long before the deadly force. It's not just the rate at which black people are killed, it's the rate at which they are harassed for minor offenses like jaywalking.
Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first
#565Earlier quoted context omitted.
>For myriad of reasons, we know clearly that controlling for no other factors, crime is higher among black populations. So to extrapolate that any one person is more likely to commit a crime because they are black is the definition of racism. What about controlling for poverty? That seems to be largely ignored in this discussion, even though it was a central tenent of Dr. Kings mission before he was assassinated. "We…
It's not left out. It's well studied. It's not the only factor, but one of the big ones. The problem is, median black net worth is one-tenth that of median white net-worth. Why is that? You can come up with a bunch of near and intermediate causes, but they will all mostly boil down to systemic racism both past and present. More specifically, government housing is only available in dense urban environments. As is publ…
[deleted]
Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first
#566Earlier quoted context omitted.
>For myriad of reasons, we know clearly that controlling for no other factors, crime is higher among black populations. So to extrapolate that any one person is more likely to commit a crime because they are black is the definition of racism. What about controlling for poverty? That seems to be largely ignored in this discussion, even though it was a central tenent of Dr. Kings mission before he was assassinated. "We…
It's not left out. It's well studied. It's not the only factor, but one of the big ones. The problem is, median black net worth is one-tenth that of median white net-worth. Why is that? You can come up with a bunch of near and intermediate causes, but they will all mostly boil down to systemic racism both past and present. More specifically, government housing is only available in dense urban environments. As is publ…
I agree, at face value it seems obvious that wealth disparities among black americans are attributable to the history of slavery and segregation.
What I'm perplexed about though is this: if systemic racism is the default primary explanation for wealth disparities, how can we explain the even greater wealth disparities of Indian, Asian, and Jewish Americans compared to all other ethnic groups in the US?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the...
Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first
#567Devil's Advocate: Assuming predictive policing actually worked...How much racism (or classism) is tolerable versus how much of a cut in crime?
Extreme case: Would we accept 1 racist interaction for 1000 cases where predictive policing solved the case?
Realistic case: Would we accept 1 racist interaction for 10 cases where predictive policing solved the case?
My point: We know about implicit and institutional racism being VERY hard to erase...can we live with a small amount of it in return for a much more effective police force?
Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first
#568The problem with predictive policing is in the name. Inference (ML) predicts the future from the past. If the past is racist, then inference will create a racist future. Since racism is systemic[1], especially when it comes to policing, predictive policing is actively working against an anti-racist future. There may be statistical ways to factor out systemic racism. There are two reasons I don't think that works: 1.…
> If you don't believe [racism is systemic], you're in the minority now
A majority-held opinion is not a citation. Which systems explicitly favor whites over blacks?
Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first
#569Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is the money given to the police the only allocation you are wanting to drain for this cause?
I don't think you can safely infer that absolute ("only") from the parent comment. Nevertheless... 1. Police are often a large percentage of a city budget, so if all city expenditures were decreased equally, it would inevitably look like the police were giving up more in absolute terms. 2. If the current solution to the problem is only more policing, then the only thing in the "solution to this problem" sub-budget th…
We can safely infer it because:
1. That's the only thing they suggested, and they framed it as either/or "If you have infinite funding, you can do both." (Implies we cant do both, because we obviously dont have infinite funding)
2. The overarching context of this conversation is about "defunding the police"
>If the current solution to the problem is only more policing
Is anyone seriously suggesting that? If so, its safe to discount these types of facile absolutist views ("we need more police to solve the problem" & "We need to eliminate the police to solve the problem")
Edit: I'd like to add thay I jusy reviewed my cities budget, and was surprised to see how large the law enforcement budget was compared to everything else. Thank you for bringing that to my attention.