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Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

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Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#461

Post by hellomyguys »

ryankemper wrote: post #356
bhntr3 wrote: post #184

The problem with predictive policing is in the name. Inference (ML) predicts the future from the past. If the past is racist, then inference will create a racist future. Since racism is systemic[1], especially when it comes to policing, predictive policing is actively working against an anti-racist future. There may be statistical ways to factor out systemic racism. There are two reasons I don't think that works: 1.…

> Since racism is systemic[1] > [1] If you don't believe this, you're in the minority now: https://www.vox.com/2020/6/11/21286642/george-floyd-protests... . This part was a little odd. It sounds like you're saying "because this belief is widely held by people, we should treat it as true"? I definitely am in the minority, but I find a much more logically consistent view than the modern definition of systemic racism to…

Would you agree at some point this country was systemically racist?

Surely you would agree during slavery it was?

I'm going to assume you agree, so then can you explain when systemic racism ended? And what caused it to end? Can you also help me understand how you are so sure that the negative impact to Black people while this country was systematically racist does not still hurt people today?

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#462

Post by datavirtue »

fastball wrote: post #440
snowwrestler wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we want to stop neighborhood gang violence in the long term, we need to work on why people join gangs, and what they are fighting over. We can't do that with police, who generally don't come into the situation until after it's too late and things have gone wrong. But if most of our money is going to the police, then what resources are available to do the longer-term work on gangs and neighborhoods? In software dev…

Do we know in any definitive manner why people join gangs?

Relative safety and a lack of better options (perceived or real).

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#463

Post by rootusrootus »

stx wrote: post #418
longtimegoogler wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but I don't think the answer is pull the police out of predominantly black neighborhoods, which seems to be the motivation for shutting this program down. Better training, more black officers, more rules around the use of force seem like better options. Of course, I don't really know what the people in these neighborhoods want so I am open to some alternatives, but ranting about predictive policing doesn't s…

I think the answer is to filter police who may have tendency to violence and racism out of the police force. There have been police who violate rights and the police departments keep them on even after the department or city pays huge settlements. From my understanding police are able to leave departments and not necessarily have their complaint history follow them to new departments. So if they have racked up compla…

In the US, I believe the majority of states license law enforcement personnel so they couldn't easily move to another department.

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#464

Post by mensetmanusman »

Barrin92 wrote: post #262
dv_dt wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crime rates nationally dropped also during the same time - and not all areas had the same analytics. It's really not clear if the reductions were from the NYC stats or in particular "agressive" law enforcement.

not only nationally, but worldwide ! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_drop In Germany we have no "predictive policing" to my knowledge, and even cameras and so on are used conservatively given how privacy sensitive we ware. Yet we've seen the exact same development over recent decades.

NY police were working in Germany......... or

low cost computation made entertainment extremely affordable and time consuming

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#465

Post by whakim »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #381
ryankemper wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Since racism is systemic[1] > [1] If you don't believe this, you're in the minority now: https://www.vox.com/2020/6/11/21286642/george-floyd-protests... . This part was a little odd. It sounds like you're saying "because this belief is widely held by people, we should treat it as true"? I definitely am in the minority, but I find a much more logically consistent view than the modern definition of systemic racism to…

This struck me as well. Systemic racism means (to me) that if you took the people out of the system, you'd still get biased outcomes based on race. In my view, it's a different matter to say that a system produces biased results because it is designed to do so, rather than it is systemic because the people operating it make biased choices where their discretion is called on. Are there actual, current examples of syst…

In many cases, I don't think you can separate "people" from "the system" because the system is a human construct in which human discretion is called upon repeatedly. For example, studies which show that young white children react more negatively to black faces compared to white faces - is this "the system"? Is is it "discretion"? I'm not sure you can differentiate the two.

It's also important to note that just because you fixed a racist practice, that doesn't immediately endow an underprivileged group with the full fruits of equality. For example, redlining may now be illegal in the United States, but middle class white Americans have been benefiting from nearly a hundred years' worth of wealth accumulation through housing that black Americans were locked out of. This is a good example of how the "system" produces racially-biased outcomes without any racist human input in the present day.

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#466

Post by alphakappa »

sacks2k wrote: post #420
bhntr3 wrote: post #184

The problem with predictive policing is in the name. Inference (ML) predicts the future from the past. If the past is racist, then inference will create a racist future. Since racism is systemic[1], especially when it comes to policing, predictive policing is actively working against an anti-racist future. There may be statistical ways to factor out systemic racism. There are two reasons I don't think that works: 1.…

"Since racism is systemic" You can't just say this without actual proof. The George Floyd killing was a tragedy, but not proof of systemic racism. On top of this, the officer involved (who actually knew George Floyd prior to killing him) is being brought up on charges, which is the exact opposite of what happens in a system that has systemic racism. "Inference (ML) predicts the future from the past. If the past is ra…

> the officer involved (who actually knew George Floyd prior to killing him) is being brought up on charges, which is the exact opposite of what happens in a system that has systemic racism.

How do you infer this? It could also be the result of the mass country-wide protests which are absolutely not the norm. It's not like the system automatically corrected for this issue.

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#467

Post by AtHeartEngineer »

godelski wrote: post #99

Looking at all these comments, did no one watch Minority Report ? The whole film was about the difficulties and ethics of "precrime" and arresting people before they even committed a crime. Obviously we aren't doing that here, but stories often exaggerate a bit. I'd also like to add another good series that explores this topic even more than Minority Report : Psycho-Pass . Psycho-Pass is more extreme in that there's…

Sounds like Minority Report and 1984 had a nightmare baby. Will definitely check that out.

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#468

Post by mov_ »

hellomyguys wrote: post #461
ryankemper wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Since racism is systemic[1] > [1] If you don't believe this, you're in the minority now: https://www.vox.com/2020/6/11/21286642/george-floyd-protests... . This part was a little odd. It sounds like you're saying "because this belief is widely held by people, we should treat it as true"? I definitely am in the minority, but I find a much more logically consistent view than the modern definition of systemic racism to…

Would you agree at some point this country was systemically racist? Surely you would agree during slavery it was? I'm going to assume you agree, so then can you explain when systemic racism ended? And what caused it to end? Can you also help me understand how you are so sure that the negative impact to Black people while this country was systematically racist does not still hurt people today?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the person you're responding to is in opposition to you.

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#469

Post by kebman »

bhntr3 wrote: post #184

The problem with predictive policing is in the name. Inference (ML) predicts the future from the past. If the past is racist, then inference will create a racist future. Since racism is systemic[1], especially when it comes to policing, predictive policing is actively working against an anti-racist future. There may be statistical ways to factor out systemic racism. There are two reasons I don't think that works: 1.…

A few facts to note: Blacks kill more blacks than any other race or ethinicity.[1] Blacks also kill more whites, than whites kill blacks in pure numbers.[1] When you factor in the size of the respective populations on a per capita ratio, then the numbers just get worse.[2] On a more positive note, though, crimes are reported to generally have gone down over the last few years. In fact there's nothing in the data to suggest that there is a systemically racist problem in the USA. If anything, the data has a bias towards whites...[1] As for the article from the clearly Left-biased Vox,[3] public opinion only reflects how poorly educated most people are about the matter.

If you think it's racist of me, a Sami minority person from Norway to say this—whose history also contains a lot of racism and atrocities systematically committed towards the Sami people—then please just excuse what I just said, and instead look at this black person saying just about the same exact thing.[4] Here's another slightly more famous black person wheighing in on the matter, with his opinion on what might be the cause of this tragedy.[5] Either way I don't believe in original sin, or that the current generation should atone for the sins of their fathers.

The sad fact that I'm forced to refer to black-only sources before anyone will believe me—a slightly racist thing to demand in the first place—should tell you how stigmatizing this discussion has become. Most people don't even dare to quote facts these days, and for good reason! Nevermind being banned from social media; people these days stand to lose their jobs if they have the wrong opinion! This is extremely chilling on the much needed democratic discussion on this topic. Thus I hope people will refrain from personal attacks or downvoting, and instead will use well researched factual sources to discuss the matter in a civil way.

Thank you!

[1]: FBI murder statistics by race from 2018, https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-... 2018 was the latest year I could find such data on.

[2]: US Census Bureau, ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates 2018, https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?d=ACS%205-Year%20Estima...

[3]: VOX, "White Americans are finally talking about racism. Will it translate into action?" https://www.vox.com/2020/6/11/21286642/george-floyd-protests...

[4]: The Systemic Racism and Police Brutality Narrative is Getting People Killed | Larry Elder, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z572XopBVFc

[5]: Denzel Washington on systemic racism in the USA, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0dCvQdt5XI

Re: Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first

#470

Post by mov_ »

whakim wrote: post #465
11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This struck me as well. Systemic racism means (to me) that if you took the people out of the system, you'd still get biased outcomes based on race. In my view, it's a different matter to say that a system produces biased results because it is designed to do so, rather than it is systemic because the people operating it make biased choices where their discretion is called on. Are there actual, current examples of syst…

In many cases, I don't think you can separate "people" from "the system" because the system is a human construct in which human discretion is called upon repeatedly. For example, studies which show that young white children react more negatively to black faces compared to white faces - is this "the system"? Is is it "discretion"? I'm not sure you can differentiate the two. It's also important to note that just becaus…

It seems like you're saying momentum is racist.
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