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41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

jacquesmattheij.com

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Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#221

Post by bradgessler »

edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

If you were at YC demo day this week, you would have seen some very solid companies that are addressing those 'Customer' issues that you list below. I was expecting bubble when I walked into the door at YC, but walked out of there thinking the total opposite.

I can't speak for all the other companies out there.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#222

Post by kongqiu »

dclaysmith wrote: post #78

Someone should track the Color Fund vs. the 43 participants in YCombinator W2011 class: Round Color's (err) round up to $43m. Then say that Milner's 150K was actually $1m with the same terms (convertible debt). You'd have 2 investments of $43m. Track follow up rounds for the 43 YC alumni and Color and see which pot grew the most.

I know which side of that bet I'm taking :)

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#223

Post by binksty101 »

edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

Back in the old timey days, you made a product people needed or you were through making said product. Today, I'm astounded by how many products/apps do the same thing as their competitors. Take iphone camera apps for example; why are there so many? Why are they getting funding? Do people need a sepia toned camera app? Is it making their lives easier?

This is not so say that innovative and "cool" apps don't have a place - they do. But it is to say that there's something concrete about making a product people need that solves a basic human problem. “My damn phone won’t take a sepia toned picture,” is not a basic human problem. In terms of a bubble, and more so, in terms of revenue – making a product someone needs assures revenue and harkens back to the old timey adage.

So is there a bubble? Yeah. Can it be quelled by a return to making products that help people with basic needs? Yeah. Do I want a camera app with sepia tone? Sure. Do I need it? No.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#224

Post by okaramian »

danenania wrote: post #215
okaramian wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really a result of anyone being fooled. It's rational economic behavior to get in on a bubble which is why bubbles get bigger. The people that get screwed are the ones that dont get out at the right time.

Unless you are a very sophisticated trader (and likely even then), knowingly betting that a bubble will continue to expand is just gambling. You might get lucky and exit at the right time, but it's seriously -EV. That said, I don't really think the majority of small time investors think in those terms or are at all aware of how the monetary boom-bust cycle operates, which is why they get fooled into thinking they are…

In hindsight, maybe. You only know it's a bubble when it bursts and the markets come back to earth. Outside of that it's rational to invest in something that's growing.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#225

Post by pessimizer »

blhack wrote: post #180
edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

You're missing the point. Most geeks that I know aren't trying to build apps that make money, they're trying to build apps that are fun, and that their friends think are fun. If you offered me two choices A) Make a million dollars a year doing something you hate that nobody will know about or care about B) Make no money doing something you love that your friends think is cool. I will almost always choose B, and I thi…

You're frontloading the question. What if it was:

A) Make a million dollars a year doing something you love that nobody will know about or care about OR

B) Make no money doing something you hate that your friends think is cool?

...

If the question that you're trying to ask is, with all other things being equal, would you:

A) Make a million dollars a year doing something that none of your friends would know about or care about OR

B) Make no money doing something that your friends think is cool.

I would choose A every time. Also I'm not sure how you can say that writing a video sharing application is a lot more fun that writing software that reduces credit card fraud without knowing about the techniques used in the particular pieces of software. I'm interested in algorithms and neat techniques, not sharing videos or credit card fraud.

I'm still vain enough to think I'm a hacker, though:)

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#226

Post by nivertech »

mkr-hn wrote: post #40
nikcub wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

don't focus on the features of the product - focus on the team. it might end up being something completely different (there is a word for that) from the perspective of 'can these guys spin a $40M investment into something that is worth more?', the answer is probably yes (probably enough to worth investing in) it isn't a bubble because this is still VC money, not crazy mom and pop shooting at the NASDAQ money. during…

Cuil had Googlers behind it. The people behind it can make a difference if the other fundamentals (market viability especially) are in place. Is there a $40m+ market for a group photo album app? This app is free, so they'll need a great monetization model even if the market is there.

For $40M+ investment it should be $1B+ market. I guess they probably pitched something, like: "COLOR - the Facebook for Mobile"

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#227

Post by ebiester »

bambax wrote: post #217
patio11 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add, approximately one half of people in the real world share a common demographic category with a sliver of HN users and a fraction of a sliver of what we create. Women have money. Go take it. Nobody else wants it in tech. (Well, aside from Groupon, Zynga, and a few other companies that missed the opportunity to make an iPhone app that you could wiggle to share photos.)

> Women have money. Go take it. What do they want?!? I could never figure that one out.

It's about what humans want. Humans act the same, for the most part, accounting for cultural differences. (Fashion is an example of a cultural difference, In Turkey, for example, men often place as much importance on being stylish as American women do.)

So, think culture development. Talk To Customers. (And don't try to flirt. Look at their faces. Write notes.) Talk to them both individually and in groups.

Have a partner actually in the demographic.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#228

Post by aaronblohowiak »

run4yourlives wrote: post #207
edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

Re: Customer 2: How can we reduce inventory by $300 million? I'm wondering if anyone has explored the outsourcing of inventory? In other words, would it be viable to establish a giant warehouse of all things that people could use as their own personal warehouse... like co-locating a server.

Yes, "pick and pack" warehousing / shipping facilities will store your stuff and even put it in boxes and ship it to your customers for you. The problem isn't storing the inventory, the problem is owning the inventory. Ultimately, reducing inventory must go along with having a quick delivery time from your upstream suppliers...

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#229

Post by cynicalkane »

trotsky wrote: post #213
cynicalkane wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Core inflation is not the main measure of inflation used by the Fed, so your previous statement is false. But you don't have to take my word for it--read the article you yourself linked. Nevertheless, overall inflation remains quite low: Over the 12 months ending in December, prices for all the goods and services purchased by households increased by only 1.2 percent, down from 2.4 percent over the prior 12 months. To…

I think you may have confused me with another poster regarding "rule the world money". I did link to an opinion piece from the Journal that suggests that the Fed is exporting unrest to MENA via inflationary monetary policy. Whether this is intentional or accidental is hard to determine, but it would make a certain amount of sense if it was on purpose. None the less, I didn't write the piece nor is it my theory. Note…

I think you may have confused me with another poster regarding "rule the world money".

You're right, I'm sorry.

But it's curious that you cite the WSJ editorial pages specifically. One of the things the WSJ is known for is how incongruously stupid the editorial section is, compared to the rest of the paper.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#230

Post by moe »

blantonl wrote: post #52
MatthewPhillips wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand that. My comment was why invest in scaling when the need to scale hasn't been established?

Bain Capital, Sequoia Capital, and Silicon Valley Bank, the ones who are funding this, see great potential in the team that is bringing color to market. They've given a long runway to Color, and if the airplane takes off those investors reap far more rewards then they would have if Color is wildly successful and other investors were able to participate in subsequent rounds of investment. I cannot emphasize enough tha…

They've given a long runway to Color

A long runway? Sorry, but I had to chuckle on that.

That would be one hell of a runway. More akin to a wormhole.

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