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41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

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Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#201

Post by okaramian »

nadam wrote: post #72
edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

B2C (and tools for programmers) is overrepresented amongst hackers because it is easier to gain domain knowledge in these territories especially for young hackers. I also think that B2B is still underrepresented, and I am more interested in that. But we should also note that solving Customer n's problem is very different than solving Customer M's problems at once where M is s big set of customers. The first is 'consu…

Definitely agree. There are lots of large problems and lots of behind the times applications being used by businesses. There is a lot of room to improve efficiency and cut down on costs.

I have a couple ideas for B2B type systems, my real problems are how to market and sell those applications. I guess I don't really have knowledge in how companies adopt technology. It seems easier (although less profitable) to sell to individuals since it's one person's decision process, not an entire organization.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#202

Post by possibilistic »

umjames wrote: post #189
blhack wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the point. Most geeks that I know aren't trying to build apps that make money, they're trying to build apps that are fun, and that their friends think are fun. If you offered me two choices A) Make a million dollars a year doing something you hate that nobody will know about or care about B) Make no money doing something you love that your friends think is cool. I will almost always choose B, and I thi…

Can't you have both? Take option A for a few years. Save most of that money, then quit. Take option B for a lot longer than you could have if you didn't take option A first. But seriously, I understand that option A almost never pays that well and is usually not guaranteed. For example, working for stock options that you'll most likely never see vest. Also option B is not guaranteed to make no money either, and at le…

Am I correct in my opinion that people following option A tend to be, though perhaps not universally, driven by a certain kind of greed that promotes cold, unfeeling non-authenticity? These effects ripple throughout our society at a deep level.

Some superficial examples--Zynga, advertisements for female facial creams, etc. But I feel it goes much deeper. It's like an emergent phenomenon, a parasitic infliction upon our society. Imagine where those dollars and energies and attentions could go.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#203

Post by gaius »

dmarinoc wrote: post #174
patio11 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add, approximately one half of people in the real world share a common demographic category with a sliver of HN users and a fraction of a sliver of what we create. Women have money. Go take it. Nobody else wants it in tech. (Well, aside from Groupon, Zynga, and a few other companies that missed the opportunity to make an iPhone app that you could wiggle to share photos.)

They do not only have money. They have a strong influence (and almost always the last word) in most of end-consumer buying decisions. It's strange so little companies focus on them

They do, it's just not what you'd expect. For example, here in the UK, Volvo are big sponsors of the Twilight franchise. How does that make any sort of sense!? Well of course it does, because Twilight's core readers aren't teenagers at all, they're 30-something women. Same demographic that're buying all the Kindles.

Any ad you see that you don't understand, any product you think is irrelevant, someone must be buying it or it wouldn't exist. So, pause for a second and think, this is not for me, who is it for?

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#204

Post by sabat »

edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

That does not a bubble make. Hackers are hacking a lot != we're in a bubble. A bubble is a stock market bubble based on mass amounts of over-investment by VCs and the public.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#205

Post by sabat »

Anecdotal over-investment on the part of three VC companies != a bubble.

A bubble is a stock market bubble based on massive, irrational over-investment on the part of VCs and stock market investors which, after implosion, will hurt the US and world economy.

"Hey, those VCs are making some stupid investments" does not translate into an economic bubble. VCs frequently make stupid investments, because they're human and they're in the business of taking risks.

Please, I urge you to read a history of the actual stock market dot-com bubble of the late '90s so you understand the word "bubble" in context.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#206

Post by warrenwilkinson »

blhack wrote: post #180
edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

You're missing the point. Most geeks that I know aren't trying to build apps that make money, they're trying to build apps that are fun, and that their friends think are fun. If you offered me two choices A) Make a million dollars a year doing something you hate that nobody will know about or care about B) Make no money doing something you love that your friends think is cool. I will almost always choose B, and I thi…

When I was younger, all I wanted to do was make video games. But as I got older, I found I had writing business apps was more fun (especially when I picked the language).

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#207

Post by run4yourlives »

edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

Re: Customer 2: How can we reduce inventory by $300 million?

I'm wondering if anyone has explored the outsourcing of inventory? In other words, would it be viable to establish a giant warehouse of all things that people could use as their own personal warehouse... like co-locating a server.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#209

Post by tzury »

blhack wrote: post #180
edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

You're missing the point. Most geeks that I know aren't trying to build apps that make money, they're trying to build apps that are fun, and that their friends think are fun. If you offered me two choices A) Make a million dollars a year doing something you hate that nobody will know about or care about B) Make no money doing something you love that your friends think is cool. I will almost always choose B, and I thi…

    A) Make a million dollars a year doing something you hate that nobody will know about or care about
If you got million dollars paid for the thing you built, that is million times "know about" + million times "care about"

    B) Make no money doing something you love that your friends think is cool.
    I will almost always choose B, and I think most hackers will also always choose B. 
    I would go as far as saying that choosing B is one of the defining characteristics of a hacker.
One can find the golden path to make something one loves, something his friends think it is cool and yet, something which million people will find it worth paying a dollar a year.

Doing cool things, things "friend think it is cool" is nice, but you cannot go to the grocery with, nor pay your bills with it, right? Besides, that cool thing, will soon loose it glory to something cooler unless it will be maintained and evolved. Money is a great way having one stick to a project and keep it up and running.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#210

Post by cynicalkane »

trotsky wrote: post #162
cynicalkane wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fed's version is the PCE/PI, which is the most general measure of inflation that is theoretically possible. You might have that confused with the CPI, which is a different index, the one you usually see in the news. Finance is pretty easy to understand, relatively speaking, but the signal-to-noise ratio is far too high. The average finance news site tends to be a wretched hive of investment advice nuts and unreli…

Bernanke has regularly referred to "Core Inflation" when discussing inflationary pressures. You can see his use of it as recently as Feb 3, 2011 in his speech to the National Press Club: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke2011... The Fed's version of core inflation is the core PCE price index as you stated. The "core PCE price index [...] excludes the more volatile and seasonal food and energy pr…

Core inflation is not the main measure of inflation used by the Fed, so your previous statement is false. But you don't have to take my word for it--read the article you yourself linked.

Nevertheless, overall inflation remains quite low: Over the 12 months ending in December, prices for all the goods and services purchased by households increased by only 1.2 percent, down from 2.4 percent over the prior 12 months. To assess underlying trends in inflation, economists also follow several alternative measures of inflation; one such measure is so-called core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components and therefore can be a better predictor of where overall inflation is headed.

The takeaway is that core inflation is an "alternative" measure used when volatile components are obscuring long-term trends. The intent is to get a good feel for what the real inflation number will look like in the future. This is a big difference from "using" core inflation as the primary measure, and I don't know what you gain from confusing my statements about the PCE/PI with core PCE. I never claimed that core PCE was the most general measure.

Anyway, this is far from the original point, which is that you have some silly conspiracy theory about printing "rule-the-world money", and you won't tell us what it is. But at least I got you to stop citing MarketWatch.

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