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41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

jacquesmattheij.com

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Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#61

Post by karanbhangui »

edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

Agreed. It's not to say these products aren't successful, but you and I seem to be very traditional business people. I always find at least a few customers willing to pay for what I'm going to build and some sort of a competitive advantage I have over the potential competition.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#62

Post by arkitaip »

pclark wrote: post #8

Hmph. If nothing else, posts like this are terribly offensive to the entrepreneurs that dedicate their lives to products like Color. Did anyone consider that maybe Sequoia, who have invested in companies that make up over 10% of the NASDAQ know what they are doing? Companies like Color, AdKeeper and Flipboard have "crazy" valuations based on the founders having ridiculous resumes. They have all created billions of do…

I don't agree with your argumentation but I upvoted you because there is something very disgusting when people downvote simply because they disagree with an opinion. Why people cannot reserve their downvotes for factually incorrect, FUD-y, abusive or trollish posts is beyond me.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#63

Post by tyng »

pclark wrote: post #46
tyng wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Did anyone consider that maybe Sequoia, who have invested in companies that make up over 10% of the NASDAQ know what they are doing?" Neither Merril Lynch nor Lehman Brother knew what they were doing. "Investors are less interested in where you are today, compared to where you are going" Yes the future is important, but there's the risk-reward trade-off. If a company looks badly risky today, a rational investor will…

So now whenever someone with a successful past history does something moderately contrarian, people are just going to recite the banking collapse? "Rebecca Black signed onto the same record label as Miley Cyrus, I think the label knows what they are doing" ... "We all though Lehman Bros knew what they were doing, dude" Anyway, I like people that stray from the field and do contrarian things that other people think ar…

Ok agree the Lehman Brother example was a bit corny, but the point I'm trying to make is that we all make mistakes, including top investors like Sequoia - in fact the business model of a VC fund is to invest in 10 equally promising startups and hope 1 of them will make 100x profit and cover the loss of the other 9, and Color could be one of the 9.

Also, being a contrarian investor means you sell in a bubble (when everyone is buying) and buy in a crash (when everyone is selling).

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#64

Post by toddmorey »

nikcub wrote: post #9
dclaysmith wrote: post #3

"A $41M investment at this stage in the life cycle of a business is normally associated with either something that is technologically complex and thus capital intensive or that requires new processes to be designed from scratch." This is what struck me when I heard about the deal. Color is cobbling together existing technologies and not creating anything new. This deal pushed me into the "There is a Bubble" group. Th…

don't focus on the features of the product - focus on the team. it might end up being something completely different (there is a word for that) from the perspective of 'can these guys spin a $40M investment into something that is worth more?', the answer is probably yes (probably enough to worth investing in) it isn't a bubble because this is still VC money, not crazy mom and pop shooting at the NASDAQ money. during…

The team behind it makes the work I've seen so far all the more surprising. Have you played with the app? It's horrible. It's really bad. It's not fun to use--it's confusing and frustrating. The UI is a nightmare. It's buggy. I know some of those things can be smoothed out over time, but it doesn't feel like those early apps you see that have tons of promise but a few rough edges. As an investor, I'd be worried.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#65

Post by spatulon »

edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

The customers in your first list are individual consumers, and the customers in your second list are businesses.

You're right about the triteness of those Ask HN examples, but let's not go so far as to suggest that we should all be building for businesses, and only businesses.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#66

Post by jarin »

Without any real knowledge of the VC industry, to me this "bubble" looks like VCs are just suffering from a lack of things to invest in due to the proliferation of angel investors.

They need to show their investors that they're doing something, so they throw a grip of money at a company with a solid group of founders and a roadmap full of the hot buzzwords of the day.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#67

Post by orky56 »

edw519 wrote: post #30

I don't know about the rest of the world, but we sure are in a bubble here at Hacker News. There seems to be a real disconnect between what people want to build/invest in and what people in the real world actually need and want to pay for. Just as sample of what I've witnessed in the past few years: Ask HN: How do you like my file sharing app? Ask HN: How do you like my social app for niche ? Ask HN: How do you like…

Those needs are dismissed as lifestyle businesses that can be bootstrapped and/or cater to enterprises and SMB. It's more glamorous and HN-friendly to be working with the latest technologies and recreational uses of them for consumers.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#69

Post by blantonl »

tyng wrote: post #44

The $41m injection might well kill the company. I've never seen startups with too much capital early on to become the next Google/Facebook/Twitter - you lose your chance to become "relentlessly resourceful"!

there is a big difference between having the capital available and actually spending it.

Re: 41,000,006 reasons why I think we're in a bubble

#70

Post by toddmorey »

As someone else commented, Facebook could easily add a feature to show pictures from friends geotagged with your current location. (Not a perfect replacement but a lot of the magic.) Apple also appears to be getting aggressive in this space with the new version of mobile me. Color has an interesting vision, but I think traction as a photo sharing add-on is going to be tough once the social network and the mobile device maker get into the same exact business.
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