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The Importance of India

alexkolchinski.com

1–10 of 178 posts

Re: The Importance of India

#3
>India currently punches below its weight on the world stage due to slow economic development: 30 years ago, its GDP per capita was similar to China’s, but is now 5x lower. However, if India were to enter a period of similarly high growth over the next 30 years as China has for the past 30, it would quickly become one of the most powerful countries in the world thanks to the scaling factor of its immense population.

And if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a bicycle.

Re: The Importance of India

#4
This is true in the case of manufacturing based economy, which world is currently now majored in.

But with knowledge driven economy coming into picture, Having a huge population has any advantage?

First world countries certainly have head start in this case, who are already attracting best brains from across world ( universities and companies)

So, India will retain the importance only if it can sustain current brain drain which means huge investment in younger generation.

Re: The Importance of India

#5
I find such broad sweeping projections about population growth, big population numbers = more power, “eclipsing USA” and further conclusions emanating from this kind of line of thinking making zero sense.

Nobody has a clue on how population growth is going to be in next 30 yrs for both China and India. Its too dynamic and impossible to forecast, let alone make broad sweeping action items to advocate for.

Re: The Importance of India

#6
It's wishful thinking to believe India can compete with China on the world stage. China can pivot on a dime, whereas you can flatter an Indian by describing their country as "organized chaos". Comparing the responses to COVID-19 should be indicative.

As somewhat of an metric, I'll let you look up the smallest semiconductor node India can produce natively.

Re: The Importance of India

#7
The population factor is a very interesting observation. I think this is missing India's point of view of the situation. India has always been wary of being very close to the US or other Western powers because of history. During the Cold War India was closer to the Russians. If the US wants to improve relations with India, it needs to recognize that India will likely remain independent (another pole in a multi-polar world)

Re: The Importance of India

#8
Demographics is not destiny, if it were true, Pakistan would be more powerful than Russia.

How you organize your society matters much more, Japan/SK has fraction of the global population, and somehow maintain their economic importance.

India has all the problems of a democracy without much of the benefit. It's more likely that India becomes a CCP style country than stays a democracy.

If India was so great it's smaller immediate neighbor wouldn't be so hostile towards it, and friendly to CCP.

CCP was able to organize G77, so they have the numbers on their side, it's just that poor people don't have a voice, China is providing hard power to the masses of humanity against the interests of G7.

It's a major shift in world power, whether G7 likes it or not.

I am no fan of CCP, nor is CCP a fan of how they do things ! but its the world we live in, where the state department can just overthrow the govt of a major country if it likes, you need the use of hard power to survive.

Re: The Importance of India

#9

This is true in the case of manufacturing based economy, which world is currently now majored in. But with knowledge driven economy coming into picture, Having a huge population has any advantage? First world countries certainly have head start in this case, who are already attracting best brains from across world ( universities and companies) So, India will retain the importance only if it can sustain current brain…

Most of the "knowledge driven economy" is bullshit imo. They're busywork that allows societies that already have a lot of wealth to distribute it to their middle and upper class. People like HFTs don't create nearly the same amount value as their income justifies.
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