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Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

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41–50 of 88 posts

Re: Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

#41

It's easy to miss that the article is published under the same username as the one described as an "anonymous source", in, for example "... Wirecard desperately wanted to know who this memyselfandi007 was to sue the shxx out of him, but the police didn’t pass on the real identity."

Yes, the author writing about themselves in the third person is really misleading/annoying.

Re: Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

#42
post #2

> Lessons to be learned * even a pretty obvious fraud can go on much longer than one would think if the organizers are ruthless enough. My original short position would have gone against me 25x over 12 years and the share price even after today’s disaster would be higher than back in 2008 (just to be clear: the company is worth ZERO in my opinion) * a company that goes against people who write negative articles as ag…

You forgot the two last ones including "The German BAFIN is not very smart and German financial regulation is substandard", which is a pretty big lesson for the biggest economy in Europe.

Re: Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

#43
post #32

I personally know people, who invested considerable amounts of money into Wirecard after the COVID-19 crash and even one, who invested last week on the day the stock took its first dip. At the first point in time the shortselling, the FT articles and the ongoing BAFIN investigation were known. At the second point in time it was known, that they hired there buddies from KPMG, who could not find anything wrong, but eve…

Unfortunately the same reasoning could be applied to Hertz selling stock in a bankrupt company, which would have been impossible 5-10 years ago, but maybe even a few months ago. I think the markets have been completely messed up by stimulus since 2008, and it's only getting worse. Governments are buying company bonds for gods sake. Stocks aren't about market pricing any more. They are some vanity metric that governme…

> I think the markets have been completely messed up by stimulus since 2008

Maybe, but OTOH the stock market returns are actually no different from pre 2008 (S&P500 in this case): https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-re...

Re: Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

#44
post #13
post #2

> Lessons to be learned * even a pretty obvious fraud can go on much longer than one would think if the organizers are ruthless enough. My original short position would have gone against me 25x over 12 years and the share price even after today’s disaster would be higher than back in 2008 (just to be clear: the company is worth ZERO in my opinion) * a company that goes against people who write negative articles as ag…

Another: * They tie big names into the firm to get credibility. Hire them into the board, or pay them good money for short term consulting gigs. Examples: 1) Gen. James Mattis was in Theranos board. So was Henry Kissinger and George Shultz. 2) Enron paid Paul Krugman $50,000 to attend at least two times in advisory board meetings, nothing related to Enron business. What Enron really bought was the ability to say Paul…

The book on Theranos (Bad Blood) actually makes the argument that no “real” big names were in Theranos: Kissinger, Mattis and Schultz knew nothing about health care or medicin. They are/were career politicians. The book argues investors with actual experience in the industry staid far away.

Re: Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

#45
post #2

> Lessons to be learned * even a pretty obvious fraud can go on much longer than one would think if the organizers are ruthless enough. My original short position would have gone against me 25x over 12 years and the share price even after today’s disaster would be higher than back in 2008 (just to be clear: the company is worth ZERO in my opinion) * a company that goes against people who write negative articles as ag…

Enron is one example of how these things can turn out, but Herbalife (HLF) is another. HLF is a multi-level marketing company; they're a shady company in an inherently shady business; they have far-flung operations; they aggressively went after people expressing negative information; they had questionable accounting; and there were eventually regulatory rulings against them. But they also are a profitable business th…

> they also are a profitable business that sells stuff that people want to buy

[citation needed]

Just like the other MLMs (or rather pyramid schemes, because that's what they really are), they sell a (unprofitable) lifestyle using deceptive marketing. The products are secondary (they're just there to keep regulators at bay) and are always sub-par and inferior to what can be found off-the-shelf.

Re: Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

#46
post #19
post #12

Is there a good summary of Wirecard for those of us who haven't been paying attention? Was it an inherently fraudulent business, or a regular payment processor whose managers were skimming, or what?

I am looking for the same. Might be too early to tell though. What I got seems to be: WC started out as a payment processor who was not afraid to work with fringe clients, other payment processors wouldnt work with. Then somehow the money volume went up high. Now this extra money is not where it should be.

Seems to me that it's an open question whether that extra money ever existed to begin with.

Re: Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

#47
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And while Manfred Schmider went to jail for a couple of years he apparently still managed to move a lot of his assets overseas and comfortably lives on Mallorca today. This stuff makes my blood boil. I continue to be astounded that this seems to be the default.

It signals to a lot of us that there are very different rules when playing on the "elite" level of the economy. When you amass power enough through capital our current system definitely tips over to be lenient against them, and the longer I live the more I feel it's not necessarily by design but definitely this hole is left open in the capitalist system on purpose. This is one of the reasons why I feel that over time…

> This is one of the reasons why I feel that over time I got very much supportive to "eating the rich", their power to skirt the law is way overdue to be corrected.

I am feeling the same way. Also for me it is not about them being rich or powerful, but more about general lack of accountability throughout the whole system.

Re: Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

#48
post #2

> Lessons to be learned * even a pretty obvious fraud can go on much longer than one would think if the organizers are ruthless enough. My original short position would have gone against me 25x over 12 years and the share price even after today’s disaster would be higher than back in 2008 (just to be clear: the company is worth ZERO in my opinion) * a company that goes against people who write negative articles as ag…

Enron is one example of how these things can turn out, but Herbalife (HLF) is another. HLF is a multi-level marketing company; they're a shady company in an inherently shady business; they have far-flung operations; they aggressively went after people expressing negative information; they had questionable accounting; and there were eventually regulatory rulings against them. But they also are a profitable business th…

The ftalphaville coverage of Herbalife has been consistently interesting, e.g. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/07/18/2169979/herbalife-avo...

Re: Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

#49
post #32

I personally know people, who invested considerable amounts of money into Wirecard after the COVID-19 crash and even one, who invested last week on the day the stock took its first dip. At the first point in time the shortselling, the FT articles and the ongoing BAFIN investigation were known. At the second point in time it was known, that they hired there buddies from KPMG, who could not find anything wrong, but eve…

Unfortunately the same reasoning could be applied to Hertz selling stock in a bankrupt company, which would have been impossible 5-10 years ago, but maybe even a few months ago. I think the markets have been completely messed up by stimulus since 2008, and it's only getting worse. Governments are buying company bonds for gods sake. Stocks aren't about market pricing any more. They are some vanity metric that governme…

It's not vanity, because governments have dugged themselves into a hole where pension funds and others have invested enormous amounts of money in equities (seeing as bond returns are non-existent due to the aforementioned stimulus) as well as venture capital. Allowing the market to reset and recalibrate itself would also mean wiping out a lot of pensions as well as investments from wealthy donors, which is bad for votes.

The sad thing is that this erroneous monetary policy will only stop if politicians and central bankers are willing to stomach a harsh market recalibration, but seeing as they seem to not be willing to do that judging from their recent actions so I fear that this systemic malinvestment and inequality will just get worse and worse until something breaks.

Re: Wirecard – The “German Enron”, and a personal history

#50
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're inferring way too much from a couple of failed investments.

Wirecard was the biggest bank of the 4th biggest economy. So I inferred some systemic issues here.

Isn't Deutsche Bank the largest bank in Germany?
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