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The US can reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without increasing consumer bills

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Re: The US can reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without increasing consumer bills

#31
post #28
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a very long time solar panels would cost more energy to manufacture than they would output through their lifetime. This is no longer the case, but the amortization period is still large. Fuel is not the problem. The power plants are the problem.

They show the payoff period Germany and in Southern Europe. I wonder what the payoff period is in Texas.

It's probably better, but don't forget that this is inherently a global problem. Scotland is running 100% renewable - so what, who cares? Not only it's not enough (the country is small), they also import a lot of goods with manufacturing energy footprints that released co2 elsewhere.

Even if the US switches to 100% renewable the problem is far from solved. Look at the population pyramid of Nigeria, for example. Those people will want homes (cement, steel) and cars and flights.

Re: The US can reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without increasing consumer bills

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is the answer.

You could start planning now and you would be lucky to get shovels in the ground by 2035.

France turned its whole grid nuclear in 15 years with 60s technology. The utter absurdity that has happened with nuclear energy is crazy. Its like the whole climate change disaster could have been avoided in the first place.

Nuclear is like anything else, if you build one bespoke reactor, its expensive. If you build 20 that are the same its gone end up cheap.

The problem is every country has its own government trying to build its own reactors and only have like one project going. Its like the rocket industry just 10x worse.

And the way regulation was managed after Three Mile Island was insane, and has utterly stopped nuclear innovation essentially impossible (specially new reactors) and makes nuclear building beyond expensive.

Its really a sad situation, humanity should be in the nuclear age right now. That we are still grappling with replacing coal power is beyond mind-blowing.

Re: The US can reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without increasing consumer bills

#33
post #26
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's some weird kind of fear mongering. You assume instant replacement of fossil fuel plants. If you don't do this, but keep them running, and add renewables on top, it looks different. Using your numbers to demonstrate it of 1 year EROEI. Let's say we make a starting investment for one year where we take 5% of the world's energy output to invest into new renewable power. After that year is over, we have capacity t…

You're right, I did not compound the green energy (or, as you say, assumed parallel termination of dirty plants). It would work if the world could collectively put aside 5% of the energy budget. Not sure if that's realistic, and also will there be enough commodities (though those are at multi decade lows in prices right now), but if so it should work. Let's see how the world looks like post covid, as we're very likel…

We have tons of unused capacity. Energy shortages would be indicated by high energy prices, but they are low. China had been building coal plants before actually having demand for them (creating a great place to mine BTC in the process), then expanded to build coal plants all over the world. The US is swamping international markets with fracking oil. In OPEC, the hate for each other still seems to be stronger than the desire to increase prices.

Re: The US can reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without increasing consumer bills

#34
post #5

Not convinced. I’m using utility solar for about 20% of my electricity needs, precisely to experience what’s claimed. Average cost is 50% above regular sourcing, and rising significantly. https://twitter.com/ctdonath/status/1274157769889918978?s=21

I installed 10kW on my home DIY in AZ. Cost was $1.00W and $0.70W after tax incentive. It took me 3 weekends all by myself. It works out to like 1.7c/kWh over the life of the asset. Next step is to add batteries and go off grid. Right now, the utility pays me 9.6c/kWh so I’m not in a rush until they further sabotage net metering. My cost pre-solar was 14-16c/kWh. Also, the cap on grid connected was 10kW and it’s about to go to 20kW.

Oh, and I had never done it before. Read a lot and watched videos. Technology is making it plug and play.

Re: The US can reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without increasing consumer bills

#35

Exciting. But here are some problems. - Unfortunately, they are averaging the entire US, which is made of several grids, so the bad days are not that bad in their analysis. To fix those bad days, you'd need hella more storage, hella more capacity. e.g. 3-4x the renewables capacity than the normal need. - Such a system has a very low resiliency because it depends on national grid. If Covid has taught us anything, it i…

Hi! You don't seem to like renewables much [1][2]. (You do post about the promise of nuclear energy, including fusion, which for whatever reason seems to be associated with skepticism about renewables [3].) Finally, you called our attention to the need to be skeptical about COVID-19's impacts in mid-April [4]. Cool, cool.

"To fix those bad days, you'd need hella more storage, hella more capacity. e.g. 3-4x the renewables capacity than the normal need. - Such a system has a very low resiliency because it depends on national grid."

Citations for these sweeping claims?

"If Covid has taught us anything, it is the need for resiliency in the face of rare events." Oh wait, we have a citation for this one.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21868290 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21879466 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/submitted?id=hairytrog [4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22881917

Re: The US can reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without increasing consumer bills

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if we assume that's correct, those sources have massive impacts under other categories. In contrast, anaerobic bacteria are terribly inefficient with their energy use, yet vastly outperform all animals in terms of biomass. So it's unclear to me that the EROI metric actually matters all that much. If I can produce solar panels with a solar-powered factory at a profit, I don't care about the price of coal or its E…

You can make while society falls around you. You want to make the most efficient use of time, energy, land, and materials. Why? So you can do more with it, give more people more time to think about things unrelated to survival, so you can support more people, whatever. Efficiency is key to civilization and progress. Solar takes 10X the land and 15x the material with no plan to deal with it after it has reached the en…

> Solar takes 10X the land and 15x the material with no plan to deal with it after it has reached the end of life.

Where solar in this case is photovoltaics/li-ion batteries and not CSP/molten salt?

edit: nvm see what they say here, not really impressed with a few of their assumptions of a optimal system, and using SEGS[0] is probably the worst one they could consider. Doesn't help that CSP tech is still in it's nascent stages compared to Nuclear,Hydro, Coal, and alot of system assumtioms for transmission are applied to CSP from them where CSP has other ways it can achieve even higher efficiencies with lower line losses (i.e. vacuum storage of molten salts and moving that to local grids to use in DSG systems) as well as being from 2013 (a lot more efficient systems have come online and global CSP capacity has doubled from 2013 to 2019).

"Only one work [30] has been found that provides values for invested energy and materials for different CSP technologies in a sufficient manner. The study which is part of a report from the German Centre for Aerospace (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt) is a life cycle assessment for a hypothetical plant called “Sokrates”. Three different techniques were analyzed: Parabolic through with phenyl (SEGS) or steam (DSG) as coolant and a steamcooled Fresnel power plant, whose plane mirrors are roughly arranged to big parabolic mirrors. Plane mirrors are easier to manufacture and maintain, but have a lower concentration capability compared to parabolic mirrors, reducing the plant’s efficiency. Extremely high temperatures will reduce heat transportation, which also reduces the efficiency.

To achieve the high solar concentration, relatively big parts (mirrors) are necessary which are only usable in big plants. Therefore, due to economical aspects small or even individual plants are never considered. It should further be mentioned that, contrary to photovoltaics, the output of a CSP plant is not a linear function of the solar radiation intensity, so that only a deployment in sunbelt regions is in an economical scope. For regions with lower solar radiation like Germany this means additional power trans- portation energy demands and energy losses. The results shown in Table 4 are only for SEGS and Fresnel type technique, DSG is not tested yet. The location was assumed to be Ain Beni Mathar (Marocco, 34.17 N, 2.12 W) with a solar radiation constant of 2340 kWh/m2. The plant size is scaled to an annual output of 145 GWh (525 TJ), or 15,660 TJ over its adopted 30 year lifetime.

The higher demand for maintaining SEGS is caused by coolant losses due to the dominant phenyl energy inventory. The energy demand does not include the efforts for daily energy storage to provide electricity in the night hours, which is not possible with steam coolant as used by SEGS. The estimations for mirror replacements are very optimistic, doubling this rate will reduce the EROI by 20%, so the given values are the upper limit. Another significant reduction of roughly 30% (buffered) occurs when connecting this CSP plant to the European grid instead of using the output nearby the plant due to the very large copper demand.

It should be mentioned that the authors of the report [30] subtracted the phenyl maintaining demand from the output rather than adding it to the demand which can only be done if the used phenyls are directly produced by the CSP plant, on its site (see Sec. 5). This is not possible with the described CSP plant and would lead to wrong EROIs, making it infinite if all energy inputs are subtracted. Further corrections due to material inventory corrections lead to EROIs given in Table 4."[1]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Energy_Generating_System...

[1] https://sci-hub.uno/10.1016/j.energy.2013.01.029

Re: The US can reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without increasing consumer bills

#38

Exciting. But here are some problems. - Unfortunately, they are averaging the entire US, which is made of several grids, so the bad days are not that bad in their analysis. To fix those bad days, you'd need hella more storage, hella more capacity. e.g. 3-4x the renewables capacity than the normal need. - Such a system has a very low resiliency because it depends on national grid. If Covid has taught us anything, it i…

Hi! You don't seem to like renewables much [1][2]. (You do post about the promise of nuclear energy, including fusion, which for whatever reason seems to be associated with skepticism about renewables [3].) Finally, you called our attention to the need to be skeptical about COVID-19's impacts in mid-April [4]. Cool, cool. "To fix those bad days, you'd need hella more storage, hella more capacity. e.g. 3-4x the renewa…

Digging into someone's comment history to paint an agenda is a very reprehensible behavior. I was a Covid-19 skeptic as well, I changed my opinion when I saw that the overall death rate YoY - the excess deaths painted a very bleak picture. To think that someone would go down my comment, post, or tweeting history to comment on my bias makes me wonder if it's worth being on social media at all.

Re: The US can reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without increasing consumer bills

#39

Exciting. But here are some problems. - Unfortunately, they are averaging the entire US, which is made of several grids, so the bad days are not that bad in their analysis. To fix those bad days, you'd need hella more storage, hella more capacity. e.g. 3-4x the renewables capacity than the normal need. - Such a system has a very low resiliency because it depends on national grid. If Covid has taught us anything, it i…

Hi! You don't seem to like renewables much [1][2]. (You do post about the promise of nuclear energy, including fusion, which for whatever reason seems to be associated with skepticism about renewables [3].) Finally, you called our attention to the need to be skeptical about COVID-19's impacts in mid-April [4]. Cool, cool. "To fix those bad days, you'd need hella more storage, hella more capacity. e.g. 3-4x the renewa…

Argue the argument, not the arguer.

Re: The US can reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without increasing consumer bills

#40
post #5

Not convinced. I’m using utility solar for about 20% of my electricity needs, precisely to experience what’s claimed. Average cost is 50% above regular sourcing, and rising significantly. https://twitter.com/ctdonath/status/1274157769889918978?s=21

We did a PPA for full replacement at a time in our life when we were probably at max usage (2 teenagers at home, all electric appliances) and haven't looked back. Our monthly bill immediately dropped and stayed down. As far as I can tell, the only thing I need to worry about is the risk of deflation, and there's not much I can do about that.

It GREATLY depends on where you live. Where I live, solar is not a good option. Terrible yield on many cloudy days - horrible yield in winter.
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