"It took nine days for the number of infections to grow from 6 million to 7 million, and less than eight days to get to the latest million, so the pandemic is not slowing down." https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/the-global-...
Covid-19: The T Cell Story
81–90 of 149 posts
Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have seen that "infection level off after 10-20%" multiple times. It is simply not true. Some areas level off at 1-2%, some at 5%, 10, 20% or whatever else. It all depends on when strong social distancing measures were taken. There were only a few places such as NYC or Bergamo, where measures were taken too late and infections went over 20%.
I know hn doesn't like sarcasm, but saying that infection level off after 10-20% "naturally" after the world experienced the biggest lockdown since the spanish flu, is like saying the fire I saw on the news was extinguished because I took a pee at the same time. Nevermind resurgences post lockdown in shithole places where people don't follow distancing and don't wear masks -- like India or my belloved Romania -- sure…
> I know hn doesn't like sarcasm, but saying that infection level off after 10-20% "naturally" after the world experienced the biggest lockdown since the spanish flu, is like saying the fire I saw on the news was extinguished because I took a pee at the same time.
The weird thing is, that after reopening many thing/services in many places, there were very rarely any new spikes in new cases. We've all been expecting a spike after every measure being removed, and it hasn't happened in most countries (it's probably too soon to speak about the effect of protests in the USA, but we'll see that soon too).
Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
> In Massachusetts (where we have been hit pretty hard by C19) we're trending downwards in a significant way and have been for a few weeks now. Same in California - corona is a health care non-issue here, aside from our governor running for President soon, so it's a political issue. So we'll be the last to leave lockdown, and it's looking like Jan. 2022 now. By non-issue, I mean hospitalizations and deaths according…
I'm not sure if you're talking about daily deaths, or in total, but California has had 5,286 deaths as of today, not 58. We also had 81 deaths today specifically. In a perfect world, the point of a lockdown is to arrest the spread of a disease entirely. Unfortunately, we're well past that point in the US. Having failed at that, the goal is not just to keep health care utilization below capacity, but also to buy time…
> In a perfect world, the point of a lockdown is to arrest the spread of a disease entirely.
The problem with this is, that the whole world has to stop for that to happen, and by stop, i mean stop entirely.
Even if you stop the spread in California, and have zero infected people there, the first infected outsider that comes into the state, will spread infections, and you're back at closing down everything.
Basically the second part (keeping healthcare system managable, and hoping for a vaccine soon) is the only think we can do.
Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story
#84> And wherever we look, infections level off before 10%-20% of the population is infected. This is somewhat mysterious. This is not really true. Bergamo had a 58% infection rate as of last month: https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_maggio_22/ber... Several prisons have seen infection rates in the 70-80% range: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0... The USS Theodore Roosevelt had an…
Sweden has achieved about 15% infection rate and has showed no signs of slowing.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/new-beijing-outbreak-raise... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story
#85Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this tells you more about their working and sleeping conditions than it does about how the pandemic will play out on a national scale.
But the article claims it will discuss "How around 50% of us appear to have (some?) Cell Mediated Immunity against COVID-19". If we're seeing farms where every single person falls ill, that suggests that 50% of us aren't immune, though I suppose "(some?)" is a cop out.
Why would that be an XOR situation?
They're all tested positive, but 50% of them might have some form of immunity, and are fighting it off like that would a normal cold (or even with zero symptoms). The virus is still in their system, but their bodies are disposing of it without issues.
Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know hn doesn't like sarcasm, but saying that infection level off after 10-20% "naturally" after the world experienced the biggest lockdown since the spanish flu, is like saying the fire I saw on the news was extinguished because I took a pee at the same time. Nevermind resurgences post lockdown in shithole places where people don't follow distancing and don't wear masks -- like India or my belloved Romania -- sure…
> the biggest lockdown since the spanish flu what lockdown has there been in place during the Spanish flu? afaik[1] it was a big cover up in most of the world: > "the reason why it was even called Spanish flu was because Spain was not involved in the war, having remained neutral, and had not imposed wartime censorship." --> hence I assumed Spain was not affected by the propaganda/cover-up efforts and reason for it's…
They could not keep secret whole time.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-citie...
> on October 3, schools, churches, theaters, and public gathering spaces were shut down
> In 1918, a San Francisco health officer shot three people when one refused to wear a mandatory face mask. In Arizona, police handed out $10 fines for those caught without the protective gear.
Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story
#87> And wherever we look, infections level off before 10%-20% of the population is infected. This is somewhat mysterious. This is not really true. Bergamo had a 58% infection rate as of last month: https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_maggio_22/ber... Several prisons have seen infection rates in the 70-80% range: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0... The USS Theodore Roosevelt had an…
> A better explanation for the leveling off is simply that social distancing and lockdowns have reduced the spread of the virus.
You are probably correct, but it still seems to be the case that the virus spread is slowing faster than expected even with relaxations of lockdown measures.
I suspect the explanation is complex. It is probably a combination of factors: individual awareness in reducing social contact, northern hemisphere summer, and individual variability.
It's probably not the case that a large proportion of people are immune, but there might be big differences in susceptibility. The examples you mention are either from early in the pandemic where social distancing rules were less habituated, or enclosed environments where transmission is harder to avoid.
I'm just guessing, but this would support the European strategy of initial lockdown followed by moderate social controls if outbreaks become more controllable after the initial surge.
Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know hn doesn't like sarcasm, but saying that infection level off after 10-20% "naturally" after the world experienced the biggest lockdown since the spanish flu, is like saying the fire I saw on the news was extinguished because I took a pee at the same time. Nevermind resurgences post lockdown in shithole places where people don't follow distancing and don't wear masks -- like India or my belloved Romania -- sure…
> I know hn doesn't like sarcasm, but saying that infection level off after 10-20% "naturally" after the world experienced the biggest lockdown since the spanish flu, is like saying the fire I saw on the news was extinguished because I took a pee at the same time. The weird thing is, that after reopening many thing/services in many places, there were very rarely any new spikes in new cases. We've all been expecting a…
> The weird thing is, that after reopening many thing/services in many places, there were very rarely any new spikes in new cases. We've all been expecting a spike after every measure being removed, and it hasn't happened in most countries
I think at least part of the people keep distancing to some degree, and even if that does not prevent a new spike or outbreak completely, it slows it spread.
That's another critical difference to the Spanish Flu: Spread is much much slower. With the flu, most people become ill and infectious within one day. If that were a dangerous flu pandemic, the world would have had less than two weeks to shut down most cities.
Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Geeky entrepreneur https://www.linkedin.com/in/bert-hubert-b05452/
So... “none”?
Author here - the article has been read and retweeted by actual world class experts. Given that the article is now nearly two weeks old, I would have heard about any gross inaccuracies in there by now. There is some minor feedback and it needs a few tweaks, but overall it holds up really well.
Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story
#90> And wherever we look, infections level off before 10%-20% of the population is infected. This is somewhat mysterious. This is not really true. Bergamo had a 58% infection rate as of last month: https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_maggio_22/ber... Several prisons have seen infection rates in the 70-80% range: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0... The USS Theodore Roosevelt had an…
> A better explanation for the leveling off is simply that social distancing and lockdowns have reduced the spread of the virus. You are probably correct, but it still seems to be the case that the virus spread is slowing faster than expected even with relaxations of lockdown measures. I suspect the explanation is complex. It is probably a combination of factors: individual awareness in reducing social contact, north…
Why do you think "northern hemisphere summer" would have any (positive) impact? I mean, just look at Brazil, an "eternal summer" country, they're not doing that well... Except if it's the combination of heat+low humidity, there might be counterexamples to that as well though (Iran?).