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Covid-19: The T Cell Story

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Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story

#61

Post by jacobush »

Animats wrote: post #7

The author asks some questions which can be answered by gathering some data. This suggests going back and re-testing for antibodies some populations from tightly packed groups - the cruise ship passengers, warship crew, and nursing home residents. The antibody tests are more accurate than they were two months ago. The key here is to find out how many people, definitely exposed to the virus, not only did not show any…

The article specifically points out that there could be herd immunity in a certain population without any antibodies.

Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story

#62

Post by jacobush »

acqq wrote: post #44

> Does this mean that if you recently had a Coronavirus that caused a head cold that you have a measure of protection? Apparently, no , as there are no observed differences in the percentages of infected when the people who have children or work with children are compared with those who don't. If the stated assumption were true, those that were more exposed to other coronaviruses (which would be expected among those…

These cold viruses circle the globe too, and just because some children had colds and transferred them to adults, does not mean that they had exactly the strain that could potentially give partial Covid19 immunity.

So while I agree with your general advice about sources, I don't find your "apparently" to be apparent at all.

Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story

#64

Post by cashsterling »

nodamage wrote: post #9

> And wherever we look, infections level off before 10%-20% of the population is infected. This is somewhat mysterious. This is not really true. Bergamo had a 58% infection rate as of last month: https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_maggio_22/ber... Several prisons have seen infection rates in the 70-80% range: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0... The USS Theodore Roosevelt had an…

It would be more accurate to state "levels off before 10-20% develop antibodies". The author wrote an article that covers other mechanisms by which the human immune system can fight viral infections. The definition of what 'infected' means is a total gray area. The human body is constantly fighting low-level viral infections.

PCR positive doesn't mean you are seriously infected or an active 'spreader'... just means they found some viral RNA in your mouth/throat/nasal-passage.

Just means you were definitely exposed and are carrying the virus. Many of those cases were completely/almost asymptomatic, right?

N. Italy is it's own unique situation... don't have specific comments there...

With an enclosed dense population situation like a prison or a naval vessel... it is interesting that the spread would stop short of ~100% infection once it crosses the 25-50% threshold, given what we understand of the overall high transmissibility of this virus.

Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story

#65

Post by ddeck »

elliekelly wrote: post #42
lsllc wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Massachusetts (where we have been hit pretty hard by C19) we're trending downwards in a significant way and have been for a few weeks now. But I see more human activity out and about than ever (at least compared to March/April and mask wearing / social distancing is has been pretty obviously in decline for a number weeks now). The state is now well into it's re-opening phase 2 and even with the recent protests, th…

It’s my understanding that Massachusetts testing has been way down recently which could account for the lower number of positive tests.

Number of daily tests has been broadly flat for the last three weeks and is ~20% lower than the peak testing in mid-May.

It's difficult to match new case numbers against specific tests given aggregated data sources, lag etc., but the rough positive test percentage looks like ~2-4% currently vs >10% mid-May and >20% in April:

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/massachusetts

Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story

#66

Post by ddeck »

jlmorton wrote: post #47
redis_mlc wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In Massachusetts (where we have been hit pretty hard by C19) we're trending downwards in a significant way and have been for a few weeks now. Same in California - corona is a health care non-issue here, aside from our governor running for President soon, so it's a political issue. So we'll be the last to leave lockdown, and it's looking like Jan. 2022 now. By non-issue, I mean hospitalizations and deaths according…

I'm not sure if you're talking about daily deaths, or in total, but California has had 5,286 deaths as of today, not 58. We also had 81 deaths today specifically. In a perfect world, the point of a lockdown is to arrest the spread of a disease entirely. Unfortunately, we're well past that point in the US. Having failed at that, the goal is not just to keep health care utilization below capacity, but also to buy time…

>I'm not sure if you're talking about daily deaths, or in total, but California has had 5,286 deaths as of today, not 58. We also had 81 deaths today specifically.

They are talking about total deaths, but only in SF/Santa Clara. The actual figure is 47 for SF and 151 for Santa Clara [1][2].

[1] https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/fjki-2fab

[2] https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#ca...

Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story

#67

Post by idrae »

Judgmentality wrote: post #56
dehrmann wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They probably meant per day. I think "flat" is a fair characterization of the metric: https://i.imgur.com/zZ7UGVW.png Deaths has a few problems. One is that once SARS-CoV-2 finds a nursing home, it's a lot of at-risk people in once place, so it gets hit hard. If deaths is the metric you care about, it's best to put a lot of effort into testing workers at care facilities and putting those facilities strict lockdowns.…

> https://i.imgur.com/zZ7UGVW.png I'm assuming the peaks and valleys correspond to weeks, but why are deaths correlating so strongly with the day of the week?

That's probably an artifact of the reporting process. Most hospitals don't report during the weekends.

Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story

#68

Post by xorfish »

nodamage wrote: post #9

> And wherever we look, infections level off before 10%-20% of the population is infected. This is somewhat mysterious. This is not really true. Bergamo had a 58% infection rate as of last month: https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_maggio_22/ber... Several prisons have seen infection rates in the 70-80% range: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0... The USS Theodore Roosevelt had an…

I have seen that "infection level off after 10-20%" multiple times.

It is simply not true. Some areas level off at 1-2%, some at 5%, 10, 20% or whatever else. It all depends on when strong social distancing measures were taken.

There were only a few places such as NYC or Bergamo, where measures were taken too late and infections went over 20%.

Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story

#69

Post by raducu »

not2b wrote: post #20
FuckButtons wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this tells you more about their working and sleeping conditions than it does about how the pandemic will play out on a national scale.

But the article claims it will discuss "How around 50% of us appear to have (some?) Cell Mediated Immunity against COVID-19". If we're seeing farms where every single person falls ill, that suggests that 50% of us aren't immune, though I suppose "(some?)" is a cop out.

I've seen news about bullshit studies from famous institutes in the UK that 60% of the UK's population already was infected by "now" (a month or two ago).

All these bullshit researchers had to do to prove their point was walk on the street, take 20 random people and test them, surely if such a large percentage of the population was infected, it would be trivial to prove it with tests.

Same here -- if there are obvious exceptions to some bullshit claim that 50% of the people are immune, then just drop that claim already, right?

Re: Covid-19: The T Cell Story

#70

Post by raducu »

guscost wrote: post #48
not2b wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the article claims it will discuss "How around 50% of us appear to have (some?) Cell Mediated Immunity against COVID-19". If we're seeing farms where every single person falls ill, that suggests that 50% of us aren't immune, though I suppose "(some?)" is a cop out.

So those people in one town did not have enough cell-mediated immunity to clear the viral dose from spending all day in an enclosed space with dozens of coworkers shedding the virus. This does not in any way suggest that 50% of the general population cannot have enough cell-mediated immunity (or even immunity from a cross-reactive adaptive/antibody response to another coronavirus) to clear e.g. the viral dose from ea…

Surely it could be true that all population is immune to exposure to exactly half a virion well cooked with sauce, but such an information is pretty useless in any practical way, isn't it?

Half immunity in only certain circumstances is useless for all practical purposes.

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