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Rents are dropping across the US

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Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#251

Post by Hydraulix989 »

pengaru wrote: post #173
aianus wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People don't live in downtown SF because they need to, they already live there because they want to. Maybe downtown SF is just the lesser of two evils between SF and SV because of job location. Maybe they really want to be with their extended family in a suburb of Cleveland.

> Maybe they really want to be with their extended family in a suburb of Cleveland. This especially made me laugh because the VP of Eng at one of my Silicon Valley startups was from Cleveland and would often joke "I escaped a prison sentence by leaving Cleveland" and "The place is so polluted the river caught on fire, TWICE!".

That is a ridiculously out of touch thing to say (reminds me of something Mitt Romney might have blurted out). Cleveland is a fine place to live.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#252

Post by ghaff »

ryandrake wrote: post #239
ghaff wrote: post #3

"across the US" as in "in expensive coastal cities." I don't know the broader trend but, anecdotally, I know people who have/are in the process of moving out of cities for more rural locations. One couple I know just moved out of a major Northeast city to the coast of Maine. Others are seriously considering vacating NYC etc. With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general u…

> With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general uncertain, a lot of people, especially those with leases coming up for renewal, are thinking this is a good time to make a move. I'm not sure I understand this. Tech industry is WFH for now . So you move out to Flyover, USA. Once the COVID-19 crisis is over next year, it's back to business as usual, and your company says, "W…

The tech industry is a lot broader than some high-profile companies that have made public announcements. My circles admittedly include a lot of people who work remotely anyway but my sense is that this shift is going to be fairly broad and sustained for people who can productively work remotely. (That said, I wouldn't literally move without having some discussion and assurances for whatever they're worth.)

There are no guarantees in life of course but I know multiple people moving from cities to more rural environments.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#253

Post by fragmede »

kyledrake wrote: post #193
pengaru wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe they really want to be with their extended family in a suburb of Cleveland. This especially made me laugh because the VP of Eng at one of my Silicon Valley startups was from Cleveland and would often joke "I escaped a prison sentence by leaving Cleveland" and "The place is so polluted the river caught on fire, TWICE!".

That fire was in 1969. This is kind of like moving to SF because it used to have hippies. I've been to Cleveland and it's actually a pretty solid place to live. I would argue you could have a far better life there with a $50k house than slavishly working for the rest of your life for a multi-million dollar tiny home in a giant sprawled out suburb. FWIW I never met a single person in the bay area that didn't want to l…

Even before the original dot-com boom and bust in 2001, San Francisco was seen as a desirable place to live for non-tech reasons. The tech boom drove out anyone and everyone that couldn't afford it, and even those that managed be in rent-controlled apartments found themselves priced out as neighborhoods gentrified and food prices increased far in excess of inflation.

I'm really hopeful that remote work becomes widely accepted so that everyone gets more of what they want. That those who don't want to live in a city are no longer forced to and for those that want to live in a city, it becomes more affordable.

The most recent tech boom finally managed to get some construction going on in SF, but in a city where living rooms were converted into bedrooms and wildly successful 20-somethings having roommates, it's going to have to fall a long way before the city is affordable again on minimum wage.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#254

Post by 01100011 »

bradlys wrote: post #147
subsubzero wrote: post #106

A lot of engineers in my group as well as a few friends are leaving the SF bay area. Now that working there is no longer a requirement and everything is shut down, why live there? Oregon, Nevada, Colo, (cheaper areas of CA), all are places that they are heading to. Main reasons are cost, crowds(lack thereof) and overall better quality of life. Expect this trend to accelerate once more leases end.

And in my circle - none are leaving. We all recognize that leaving the area means leaving job opportunities behind too. We've seen what happens to engineers career trajectory who are remote at an in-person company.

So we can expect the population of the valley to shift towards even more career minded over achievers while normal folks flee. Great.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#255

Post by sickcodebruh »

paulgb wrote: post #98
taylorhou wrote: post #94

If I were a renter right now and in an urban area with a lease renewal coming due, I'd 1000% call the mgmt co's bluff. Context: my firm provides back office services to 50k+ rental units across the nation and unless you're in some oddly hot market, most mgmt companies currently are holding their breath that their renters don't say anything and renew at the same price. If you're reasonable, you can easily negotiate a…

Thanks for the insight. Any perspective on NYC specifically?

I have no insight into other buildings but management where I live, a pricey 400+ unit in LIC, haven’t budged on anyone’s rent as leases end. Everyone we socialize with (we have a small daughter and there used to be a big crew of babies) has either left or is leaving in the next few months, the garage is less than half full — it’s a ghost town. They’re still raising rents and refused to negotiate with anyone we know. The building is rent stabilized so maybe they fear that lowering the rent will make it impossible for them to hit certain numbers over the next few years?

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#256

Post by megameter »

toofy wrote: post #194
_bxg1 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I miss the dives, the open mic nights, the hole-in-the-wall restaurants that have been slowly getting replaced with gleaming Ikea-fever-dream "fast-casual artisan eateries" and the like. (If I'm being honest the latter have a certain appeal to me too, but I think it's a travesty when they supplant things that are irreplaceably more human)

This is what most people are referring to when they say “cosmopolitan.” Where you have the perfect stew composed of a high mixture of all walks of life, from economic background, educational background, ethnic background, cultural background, etc..., and until someone figures out how to combat the change, it always seems to be overrun by gentrification. I’ve seen a few higher reaching accounts over the past couple of…

If you've read Heather Marsh this observation maps well to her writing on endogroups [0]: cosmopolitan life is exosocial, with many permeable boundaries. This attracts everyone, which means it attracts endoselves too. They walk into the space and start remaking it around them, and pretty soon the cosmopolitan life stops, replaced with reenforcement of some endogroup dynamic, which is of course bland and sterile.

The power of the big city - and why it's associated with the cosmopolitan - is that it provides a space too large for any endogroup to fully dominate, and an allowance for the exceptional case.

[0] Outlined in detail in The Creation of Me, Them and Us. But briefer versions can be found in her blog: https://georgiebc.wordpress.com/

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#257

Post by gfxgirl »

spamizbad wrote: post #27
ghaff wrote: post #3

"across the US" as in "in expensive coastal cities." I don't know the broader trend but, anecdotally, I know people who have/are in the process of moving out of cities for more rural locations. One couple I know just moved out of a major Northeast city to the coast of Maine. Others are seriously considering vacating NYC etc. With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general u…

> Maybe not so good for those who were especially attached to either the vibrant city life or busy office life. I don't understand this reasoning. Was city life not vibrant when rents were 1/3rd the price? If anything, "hypergentrification" tends to have a sterilizing effect on city life. To be honest I'm kinda looking forward to it. Nothing against HENRYs (High earners, not rich yet)... but their "cultural tastes" a…

What is your images of "hypergentrification"

My experience with any gentrification is a place with almost nothing interesting to do or see gets renewed with new restaurants, bar, venues, etc... so a place that was boring with nothing to do suddenly has new an interesting things to do. Attracting new business brings in other things too like festivals, farmers markets, etc..

That's hardly "... tends to have a sterilizing effect on city life" but maybe you have a different experience.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#258

Post by recursive »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #93
rustybelt wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe just don't lead with "I'm from the big city, hate guns, and love abortion" when introducing yourself to your new neighbors.

I’ve never heard anyone say they love abortion. They love the ability for women to have the freedom to choose abortion, and what they want to do with their body. I also prefer “anti choice” for those who oppose others having that freedom.

Probably same effect.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#259

Post by recursive »

theduder99 wrote: post #201
xbmcuser wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pandemic is here for at least 1-2 years in that time many businesses will have perfected WFH/remotely where possible. So I don't think they will go back to previous way of doing things that easily. Another thing is this pandemic also has shown the risk factor of having most of your workforce in one place/city. So even if businesses don't do wfh they would probably go for more satellite offices in smaller cities.

1-2 years lol

Why are you laughing? I'm crying.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#260

Post by Finnucane »

nemo44x wrote: post #130
slg wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Also, I have to wonder if empty apartments held by investors as ‘safe deposit boxes’ will start to appear on the rental or sale markets if the value drops. Cities are also making moves that might increase the chances of this. Los Angeles just took steps yesterday to put a vacancy tax on the November 2020 ballot.

Interesting. I've read, however, that something like that is probably very easily unconstitutional and/or easy to get around. The bigger issue is that the tax code gives landlords incentive to not rent at "market value" and hold out for more money on a long term contract.

Why would it be unconstitutional? If cities can give tax breaks for a primary residence, and have a separate commercial tax rate, then why not taxes for unoccupied units? It's basically a financial investment. Tax the fuck out of it.
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