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Rents are dropping across the US

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Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#131

Post by golf1052 »

jjice wrote: post #104

> She and her roommate signed a lease on a two-bedroom apartment in the West Village for $4,995 a month Holy cow, I knew NY rent way expensive, but wow I didn't know it was that bad. Growing up in upstate NY, you could be a nice family ready home in my suburban home town for ~100K. Of course there were houses that went up to ~150K or even 200K, but 100K was standard for purchasing a home. I even though that that was…

It's not just "big" cities, it's all cities at least according to this source [1]. I grew up in RI but I moved to Seattle after graduating college because I didn't want to live in RI anymore but job prospects for tech increase when you're in a city.

I wonder what the cycle to expensive rents is? Wages from jobs start to increase in an area, some housing development happens, rents go up on those new developments to cover costs but also because their renters can afford it, repeat?

1: https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#132

Post by est31 »

ghaff wrote: post #56
est31 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general uncertain, a lot of people, especially those with leases coming up for renewal, are thinking this is a good time to make a move. Once the pandemic ends and employers stop allowing WFH again, there might be a large surge in pricing as suddenly everyone wants to get back into those cities.

Perhaps. Although the sense I get is that a lot more WFH/remote (admittedly not the same thing) is going to be the new normal at a lot of tech companies.

Many companies are announcing it but I don't see a large trend of announcements yet. There will be a growing niche, and maybe the large wave is yet to come, but for now, we haven't reached that state yet you describe.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#133

Post by watwut »

treeman79 wrote: post #103
asveikau wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe this sounds strange, but I think there is also a category of people who prefer suburbs or exurbs and are really bitter that the pendulum has swung back to cities in the last ~20 years. They are really eager to see a trend out of small amounts of data. Or proclaim urban life dead, now and forever. I personally feel strongly in the other direction. We had the infamous "white flight" and car-centric communities an…

Kids change mindset. Kids love yards. They love the little creek that runs past. I love the safety. Small neighborhood, we all know each other and look out for the kids that run around playing.

Yeah, and then you have to drive them to and from school, they have not much to do unless you drive them and one of you two have to stay home due to all that driving.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#134

Post by pj_mukh »

Pxtl wrote: post #38

Seems silly to discuss the falling rental prices in prestigious cities without even a nod to AirBNB. AirBNB rentals have collapsed , and so a lot of owners have moved their properties into conventional long-term rental. This has created a glut in the rental market, and is driving prices down. https://www.straight.com/news/some-vancouver-airbnb-units-ar...

Airbnb says otherwise [1] in fact their CEO said not many are converting to long-term rental [2]. No one has the aggregate data exactly, and Airbnb exposing their data is probably a competitive risk.

Though if their CEO is right and rent is still dropping, it blows a giant hole in this theory altogether.

[1]: https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/06/08/airbnb-comeback...

[2]: https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcG...

P.S: Anecdotally, I've stayed at 3 different airbnbs since shutdown started, just in cities a short drive away to get out of my city. This is what Airbnb claims is driving traffic for them.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#135

Post by paulpauper »

Pxtl wrote: post #38

Seems silly to discuss the falling rental prices in prestigious cities without even a nod to AirBNB. AirBNB rentals have collapsed , and so a lot of owners have moved their properties into conventional long-term rental. This has created a glut in the rental market, and is driving prices down. https://www.straight.com/news/some-vancouver-airbnb-units-ar...

It will be short-lived. New York death and new case counts have slowed drastically. By next year things will return to normal.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#136

Post by slg »

doh wrote: post #123
taylorhou wrote: post #94

If I were a renter right now and in an urban area with a lease renewal coming due, I'd 1000% call the mgmt co's bluff. Context: my firm provides back office services to 50k+ rental units across the nation and unless you're in some oddly hot market, most mgmt companies currently are holding their breath that their renters don't say anything and renew at the same price. If you're reasonable, you can easily negotiate a…

We just canceled our lease two weeks ago. We had a large apartment in one of the new high-rises in Downtown LA. The last offer was 3 months free and 2 parking spaces free if we stay for 12 month lease, which comes to 34% discount on the rent including parking. Other buildings are offering by default two months rent-free and they will pay the movers if you decide to move in. DTLA is a special place as it has plenty of…

For added context and to build off your last point, for years it has been relatively standard for luxury rentals in DTLA to offer somewhere between 4-8 weeks free rent. It might be more appropriate to view this as a single free month with free parking when comparing to other markets.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#137

Post by sbierwagen »

spamizbad wrote: post #27
ghaff wrote: post #3

"across the US" as in "in expensive coastal cities." I don't know the broader trend but, anecdotally, I know people who have/are in the process of moving out of cities for more rural locations. One couple I know just moved out of a major Northeast city to the coast of Maine. Others are seriously considering vacating NYC etc. With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general u…

> Maybe not so good for those who were especially attached to either the vibrant city life or busy office life. I don't understand this reasoning. Was city life not vibrant when rents were 1/3rd the price? If anything, "hypergentrification" tends to have a sterilizing effect on city life. To be honest I'm kinda looking forward to it. Nothing against HENRYs (High earners, not rich yet)... but their "cultural tastes" a…

I believe ghaff is referring to COVID effects, not rent. Right now in most cities all bars, restaurants, theaters and nightclubs are closed. If you can only leave your Manhattan apartment to buy food, then you might as well be living in Poughkeepsie, and saving $5k a month in rent.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#138

Post by neonate »

Pxtl wrote: post #38

Seems silly to discuss the falling rental prices in prestigious cities without even a nod to AirBNB. AirBNB rentals have collapsed , and so a lot of owners have moved their properties into conventional long-term rental. This has created a glut in the rental market, and is driving prices down. https://www.straight.com/news/some-vancouver-airbnb-units-ar...

That article is just anecdotal, as such claims always seem to be, whether the claim is that rents are going up because of Airbnb or going down because of Airbnb.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#139

Post by ghaff »

Grimm1 wrote: post #101
nemo44x wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a very interesting time in the real estate market. NYC has seen a lot of development over a fairly long amount of time, a lot of it higher end. The city has seen growth for 30 years in terms of population growth, tax base growth, etc. Can something continue to go up forever? My anecdotal experience lately has been there is a general mood among people (especially people who make a good living) that it's time to g…

I think you're spot on with many people believing it's time to get out. I'm on the younger end of the age cohort that where people typically think to begin their move out to the suburbs, if they plan to move at all, and from what I've seen given the pandemic it has accelerated that decision for some simply because of the indeterminate length of time we won't have access to that cultural relevance and social experienc…

You make a good point.

It's not so much that the young 20-something is suddenly going to decide to decamp to the Maine woods. But, rather, there are natural patterns where many younger people tend to prefer to live in the elite cities today and somewhat older people--many with or planning on children--would rather move out.

Those patterns would likely happen to some degree in any case. But, for many, I expect this is something of a decision point in the vein of "as good a time as any."

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#140

Post by chiefalchemist »

Finnucane wrote: post #92
Pxtl wrote: post #38

Seems silly to discuss the falling rental prices in prestigious cities without even a nod to AirBNB. AirBNB rentals have collapsed , and so a lot of owners have moved their properties into conventional long-term rental. This has created a glut in the rental market, and is driving prices down. https://www.straight.com/news/some-vancouver-airbnb-units-ar...

Also, I have to wonder if empty apartments held by investors as ‘safe deposit boxes’ will start to appear on the rental or sale markets if the value drops. And this will have an effect on new construction: if demand weakens, construction will drop off.

I think you're both correct about the increase in supply. There is, of course, also the decrease in demand.

It will be interesting to see if this affects home prices as well. I suppose it depends on how many single / two-family homes are rentals.

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