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Rents are dropping across the US

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Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#21

Post by dwiel »

bobthepanda wrote: post #6
ghaff wrote: post #3

"across the US" as in "in expensive coastal cities." I don't know the broader trend but, anecdotally, I know people who have/are in the process of moving out of cities for more rural locations. One couple I know just moved out of a major Northeast city to the coast of Maine. Others are seriously considering vacating NYC etc. With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general u…

> Maybe not so good for those who were especially attached to either the vibrant city life or busy office life. Meh, if there's less people living in cities that's cheaper rent for me. What's interesting is what impact this could have on the carbon footprint. Generally speaking, higher density living is associated with lower carbon footprint per capita.

It is, except there seems to be a sweet spot in medium sized towns where commutes/groceries/activities are all close so no/less driving. If you get too small though you go back to everything being 45 min drive away again like being in the suburbs of a city which is not at all sustainable.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#22

Post by MereInterest »

Avalaxy wrote: post #5

> "It has been crazy," Freund said, "but we definitely got a very good deal." This reads like a parody to me. Paying 5000 dollars per month in rent and calling it a good deal. That's more than what many people even make in salary.

The median US household income is $63k/year. $5k/month would take the entirety of the pre-tax median income.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#23

Post by nemo44x »

Grimm1 wrote: post #2

Not only are they dropping, the incentives being offered around NYC are pretty nice. 50% off security deposit and 1 month free are what I've recently received. I checked back to see a week or two after and they were offering 2 months for free with 50% off the deposit.

It's a very interesting time in the real estate market. NYC has seen a lot of development over a fairly long amount of time, a lot of it higher end. The city has seen growth for 30 years in terms of population growth, tax base growth, etc. Can something continue to go up forever?

My anecdotal experience lately has been there is a general mood among people (especially people who make a good living) that it's time to get out; that it has been for awhile due to unrealistic prices and now the civil unrest and potential for a longer term increase in crime as police forces are gutted, similar to the 70's and 80's - "the good ol' bad days".

It's hard to tell if it's pure emotion and frustration right now or the beginnings of a larger trend, like in the mid-60's when many well-to-do people started to abandon cities. A couple real estate agents I know outside the city have said this has been the busiest they've ever been with clients moving out of the city. However, because they were more or less shut down for 2 months it could be just a backlog. Difficult to assess right now.

In my personal opinion, the prices for NYC got to absurd levels. It's not why I moved out (wanted space and less density and wasn't using the parts of the city that make living in it worth it) but it certainly wasn't an argument to stay. A correction is needed. I'm sure policing will change dramatically but I don't believe that means more crime has to happen. Reallocating funds for other ways of deterring and avoiding crime are possible. However, NYC's political history makes me skeptic.

My biggest fear for that city is that over the next few years, a lot of their tax base (the people that actually pay taxes) will leave. And because they'll work from home they won't have to pay taxes to NY like a lot of people in Connecticut and New Jersey have. It's not just the rents in NYC that are insane, the taxes are too. The value was you were paying to live in the most culturally relevant city on Earth that had decent services and was extremely safe.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#24

Post by vorpalhex »

This seems more like a market correction than an actual rent drop.

> She and her roommate signed a lease on a two-bedroom apartment in the West Village for $4,995 a month.

I struggle to believe that there are two bedroom apartments that have that kind of demand/value outside of an inflated circumstance.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#25

Post by ghaff »

brundolf wrote: post #10
ghaff wrote: post #3

"across the US" as in "in expensive coastal cities." I don't know the broader trend but, anecdotally, I know people who have/are in the process of moving out of cities for more rural locations. One couple I know just moved out of a major Northeast city to the coast of Maine. Others are seriously considering vacating NYC etc. With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general u…

> Maybe not so good for those who were especially attached to...the vibrant city life I think it's good for those people too, because urban housing prices will also go down as people move away. It could become more affordable to have that vibrant city life alongside the others who actually want to be there and don't just have to be there. I'd personally be really excited to see Austin's skyrocketing growth and gentri…

My point was that a lot of those trendy bars, restaurants, etc. may no longer exist if a lot of people who can afford to move away. A lot of the elements of city life in say NYC or Boston in the 1990s were a lot different from today.

But, to your point, yeah a return to a more gritty and bohemian version of urban life would be appealing to some.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#26

Post by alharith »

brundolf wrote: post #10
ghaff wrote: post #3

"across the US" as in "in expensive coastal cities." I don't know the broader trend but, anecdotally, I know people who have/are in the process of moving out of cities for more rural locations. One couple I know just moved out of a major Northeast city to the coast of Maine. Others are seriously considering vacating NYC etc. With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general u…

> Maybe not so good for those who were especially attached to...the vibrant city life I think it's good for those people too, because urban housing prices will also go down as people move away. It could become more affordable to have that vibrant city life alongside the others who actually want to be there and don't just have to be there. I'd personally be really excited to see Austin's skyrocketing growth and gentri…

Just a word of caution as someone who has went from D.C. to small town: It can also be not so good if you come with your previous political beliefs. Big coastal city politics are _very_ unpopular in smaller towns (not here to discuss the merits, just stating the reality). You won't make very many friends. Smaller towns don't have the same issues big cities do, so naturally it will require a different approach and way of thinking.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#27

Post by spamizbad »

ghaff wrote: post #3

"across the US" as in "in expensive coastal cities." I don't know the broader trend but, anecdotally, I know people who have/are in the process of moving out of cities for more rural locations. One couple I know just moved out of a major Northeast city to the coast of Maine. Others are seriously considering vacating NYC etc. With many tech industry jobs mostly WFH until the end of the year and the future in general u…

> Maybe not so good for those who were especially attached to either the vibrant city life or busy office life.

I don't understand this reasoning. Was city life not vibrant when rents were 1/3rd the price?

If anything, "hypergentrification" tends to have a sterilizing effect on city life.

To be honest I'm kinda looking forward to it. Nothing against HENRYs (High earners, not rich yet)... but their "cultural tastes" are both expensive and not for everyone.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#28

Post by toomuchtodo »

dwiel wrote: post #21
bobthepanda wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe not so good for those who were especially attached to either the vibrant city life or busy office life. Meh, if there's less people living in cities that's cheaper rent for me. What's interesting is what impact this could have on the carbon footprint. Generally speaking, higher density living is associated with lower carbon footprint per capita.

It is, except there seems to be a sweet spot in medium sized towns where commutes/groceries/activities are all close so no/less driving. If you get too small though you go back to everything being 45 min drive away again like being in the suburbs of a city which is not at all sustainable.

> If you get too small though you go back to everything being 45 min drive away again like being in the suburbs of a city which is not at all sustainable.

This is where I live. I love it. I encourage others to consider it unsustainable.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#30

Post by dave_4_bagels »

This is interesting, immediately before Covid-19 hit NYC I moved to mid-town Manhattan in early March.

Compared to Boston (where I'd previously lived for about 7 years) I was stunned how affordable (with roommates) luxury housing was, at least during "off-season".

For the master suite in a unit with a clear view of the Hudson and the USS Intrepid (I actually had a great view of the USS Comfort while it was in port) I only pay $1900/mo. with free gym perks, laundry in unit, AC, with brand new construction standards (building was constructed in 2018). It's not cheap, but by NYC standards when correcting for the quality of the building / building's I've lived in around Boston it's unparalleled.

Even if I moved to Austin TX, I'd essentially only be saving about $400/mo. to have a decent apt to myself but also be getting paid substantially less. It's going to be very interesting in a year whether I negotiate my rent down, or look for a new place to live and bargain HARD.

That said, I'm an NYC rental noob, very open to what kind of luxury rents people are seeing now in a post-covid rental environment?

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