Looking at those pictures from Norway I'm struck by how different our countries actions have been during this crisis. Here hardly anything is boarded up (even business that have failed or gone online-only just have an A4 notice in the window explaining the situation and apologizing for the lack of service), and even when things were at their worst there were still people in the streets, a lot of shops, offices, and i…
Pyrrhic Victory
101–110 of 180 posts
Re: Pyrrhic Victory
#102The FED is buying out every asset in existence, that means that there aren't any markets, any prices, everything is state-owned and the economy is entirely socialized, and it's now the "USSA". Stock markets are surfing the wave to grab as much as possible before the inevitable crash and collapse. No wonder the IMF head said we need a "Great Reset". This can't end well...
You realize the Fed isn't controlled by the government, right? Some of the leaders are selected, but the decisions CAN (not necessarily are) made without consultation of any of the branches of government. Besides the oversight of the leadership, there is no power granted to the branches of government into the Fed's decisions.
Wrong. The Fed is part of the government; it's just a part that's not described anywhere in the Constitution. But we've long since given up on the idea that the government should be limited to what's actually described in the Constitution.
Re: Pyrrhic Victory
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
The boarding up is because of the looting and rioting. Before that they were just closed as they would 'normally' close.
That was true in my neighborhood in Chicago but I’m not sure it was in San Francisco (where these pictures were taken). I remember seeing board ups there very early in the shutdown.
In this context, it's natural that closed business would board up even absent riots.
Re: Pyrrhic Victory
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
Flat? there is literally a second peak on the daily case count chart and a 3rd peak is forming. Deaths have been dropping but are now flattening off and primed to rise.
Deaths have clearly peaked and are going down. Cases could be increasing due to increased and/or improved testing.
Re: Pyrrhic Victory
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> The persistent bailouts are making losers of people who make good long term decisions > How, exactly? Keeping interest rates very low is hurting people who are saving money. Not just in banks also via pension funds[-], retirement schemese, life insurance. It pushes savers into taking risky bets with real estates or stocks or even direct consumption (spending money instead of saving them is very risky bet on the fu…
You know, the GGP is complaining about high government debt levels; you are complaining about low interest levels. That's not coherent. I do agree that something is broken, but "debt is too high and interest is too low" is a bad problem statement.
Low interest rates is how governments can keep the pretense that they are not printing money out of thin air and they "service" their debt and that they will repay it at some point in the future.
Re: Pyrrhic Victory
#106Two parts of this short and powerful piece really leapt out at me: > all under the auspices of a hard line Republican administration > Washington under any administration will have no choice but to bail out all the state and local agencies and every insolvent pension scheme wholesale There are underlying problems being forced to the surface by COVID that go deeper than political parties. Somewhere between the 1970s a…
> running up debt literally does not matter. The creditors don't seem to mind it either, happily buying hundred-year bonds with near-zero interest rates. Also remember that every "saving" is also a "debt" on the other side of somebody's ledger. Quite a lot of that corporate and government debt is "savings"; $270 billion of it is owed to Apple alone. http://thewire.fiig.com.au/article/2018/04/24/how-apple-inve... > Th…
Isn’t that antithetical to evidence based policy making? How can we verify a project is successful without a desired outcome to look for?
Re: Pyrrhic Victory
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
In March of 1971 the house eliminated "teller votes", where representatives' votes on amendments to bills were private; the system then moved to recorded votes, initially with red/green cards, and then in 1973 with electronic votes. After March of 1971, the public could learn exactly which representatives voted for exactly which amendments. In practice, this accountability change meant that lobbyists and their client…
Re: Pyrrhic Victory
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
> running up debt literally does not matter. The creditors don't seem to mind it either, happily buying hundred-year bonds with near-zero interest rates. Also remember that every "saving" is also a "debt" on the other side of somebody's ledger. Quite a lot of that corporate and government debt is "savings"; $270 billion of it is owed to Apple alone. http://thewire.fiig.com.au/article/2018/04/24/how-apple-inve... > Th…
> Don’t offer a specific return but benefit society and the planet as a whole Isn’t that antithetical to evidence based policy making? How can we verify a project is successful without a desired outcome to look for?
Re: Pyrrhic Victory
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
The "oil crisis" was a couple of years later but could be seen in the production figures from 1971. I find it odd that it's not mentioned. Oil was far more important for the US economic miracle than gold!
The end of super-cheap easy domestic oil has long been my go-to hypothesis for what happened around 1971. Monetary systems and policy are social constructs, but energy is physically fundamental.
Everything that has happened since then including reckless monetary policy and wage stagnation could be argued to be symptoms of the rising real cost of energy. By real cost of energy I mean physics, EROEI. Wage stagnation happens because without super cheap energy the actual physical cost of providing increasing living standards to a huge number of people become too high. Even if they live lavishly, a smaller number of rich people don't consume nearly as much energy as a huge number of middle class people. As a result the rich are not affected. Reckless financial and monetary policies can be explained by politicians who don't understand physics trying to get the magic unicorns to come back.
If either solar/wind + batteries or some form of nuclear power can be made to scale well enough, we may see a return to the post-war era. Otherwise we will not, and returning to the gold standard (or Bitcoin) won't make much difference.
I'm pretty optimistic about renewable power. I glance at this every once in a while:
http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.aspx
During the day California often runs on >50% solar/wind. Two decades ago that was a small single digit percentage. It's pretty spectacular. If we can scale storage similarly and then if the costs of both continue to fall for a while due to industrial scaling of production, we could be back to the 50s but with a renewable instead of non-renewable basis.
A fusion breakthrough or finally figuring out how to safely and sustainably scale fission would have a similar outcome.
BTW: I also wonder if you can explain the Chinese miracle in energy terms. China just decided to chase growth and fuck the environment, so they went wild with cheap coal. The magic was not only using cheap coal but doing so with no scrubbers (which consume a surprising amount of power) and no other energetically costly environmental controls to speak of, maximizing physical EROEI. They lifted vast numbers of people to middle class status and became a superpower at the cost of accelerating climate change and air that burns your eyes.
Re: Pyrrhic Victory
#110I'm in Austin TX, it looked empty like that a month ago. It was nice, not to have to sit around in traffic for once... OTOH, it took about a week before the roads/stores were full again. Around here there are plenty of closed businesses too, but the ones that are open seem about as busy (if not more) so than usual. While the idea of shutting everything down during a pandemic to keep from wiping out 50% of the populat…
Are you asserting that case count in the US would be the exact same without Shelter in place?