Pyrrhic Victory • Hacker News Board

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#61

Post by loudmax » Wed, Jun 17, 2020, 1:16 PM UTC

JackFr wrote: post #55

crocal wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to disagree. Economy is the interface between producers and consumers of resources. It’s big time a social construct, and therefore the subject of political action. Importantly, the idea that state intervention is bad for the economy as a universal rule is simply wrong. In the long run, history clearly teaches that mixed economy work (e.g. a la Keynes), while laissez-faire (e.g. a la Friedman) or centralized e…

Jeff Bezos became a billionaire by making the lives of Amazon’s customers better. Sam Walton did more to improve the lot of poor families than most government programs. (Those guys at least built something. Why does no one complain about America’s grandpa Warren Buffett. He just shuffled around money, plays with warrants and options (while telling others not to) and makes a couple hundred million by going to Congress…

Shuffling money around is absolutely an important part of the economy. It moves resources from unproductive or low productive companies to higher producing companies. The name for this activity is called "Capitalism".

One could argue that Warren Buffet should pay higher taxes. And he would agree! But unless you find capitalism itself unethical there is nothing wrong or underhanded with searching for undervalued firms and investing in them.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#62

Post by rayiner » Wed, Jun 17, 2020, 1:17 PM UTC

kwhitefoot wrote: post #22

Looking at those pictures from Norway I'm struck by how different our countries actions have been during this crisis. Here hardly anything is boarded up (even business that have failed or gone online-only just have an A4 notice in the window explaining the situation and apologizing for the lack of service), and even when things were at their worst there were still people in the streets, a lot of shops, offices, and i…

The boarding up is not because of Covid, but because of the ongoing rioting. (Not to say that the protests are rioting; but the plywood is for the rioters, not the peaceful protestors.)

But no, it’s not representative. Most of America doesn’t live in New York, DC, Seattle, etc. Nothing is boarded up in suburban Annapolis where I live, and almost nothing was ever completely shut down. Restaurants had a steady stream of takeout orders, etc.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#63

Post by StillBored » Wed, Jun 17, 2020, 1:24 PM UTC

I'm in Austin TX, it looked empty like that a month ago. It was nice, not to have to sit around in traffic for once...

OTOH, it took about a week before the roads/stores were full again. Around here there are plenty of closed businesses too, but the ones that are open seem about as busy (if not more) so than usual.

While the idea of shutting everything down during a pandemic to keep from wiping out 50% of the population/whatever might be a good idea. It was pretty apparent early on that this was low single digit % and overwhelmingly people with existing serious conditions. Telling those people to self quarantine really was the only solution. Its readily apparently that nothing actually changed in the month we stayed at home in TX. No vaccine, no additional personal protective equipment, nothing. So we all just sat at home and destroyed a large part of the economy for nothing. Particularly since to have done it "right" we would all still be sitting at home waiting for a vaccine or whatever. Given the current time-frame it might be another 6+ months. Even the testing hasn't gotten good enough to test everyone in contact, much less even find everyone who has been in contact. Maybe the one thing we now know is just how effective good masks can be. Not that anyone is even wearing masks anymore at some places (home depot for one).

So, big waste, nothing gained, and states saying closed until something changes are going to be in a world of hurt. I predict they will be forced open by politics long before either the testing/tracing or vaccine situation changes sufficiently to make a difference.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#64

Post by zeveb » Wed, Jun 17, 2020, 1:26 PM UTC

narag wrote: post #35

Kednicma wrote: post #4

One of my parents is a pensioner and their attitude towards money is that "I earned it, and so it's my money," regardless of whether that money is in their accounts or in their monthly check. They really do view all of that money which comes to them as being an entitlement which is already funded, and not part of an ecumenical system of money. > I have very clear memories of the political battles of the 1980s and 90s…

There is no law of nature that says that SS systems must work the way most do: paying current pensions with current work. You can actually save current incoming money in a fund that will grow making everybody richer, instead of depending on future generations that can shrink, actually what's happening now. The only reason it was implemented as debt is that it works from the start up. But it's possible to transition s…

George W. Bush wanted to do that, but it died a nasty death due to politics and his complete and total lack of political capital. It's a real pity, IMHO, because transitioning from the tax-by-another-name Social Security system to something closer to a mandatory 401(k) plus a disability scheme is vital to spreading the wealth of the country. It would be awesome if even the poorest labourer owned — and could vote — shares in the wealthiest corporations.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#65

Post by willvarfar » Wed, Jun 17, 2020, 1:27 PM UTC

StillBored wrote: post #63

I'm in Austin TX, it looked empty like that a month ago. It was nice, not to have to sit around in traffic for once... OTOH, it took about a week before the roads/stores were full again. Around here there are plenty of closed businesses too, but the ones that are open seem about as busy (if not more) so than usual. While the idea of shutting everything down during a pandemic to keep from wiping out 50% of the populat…

Just playing devils advocate, but if only those at risk were supposed to quarantine, would those at risk but not financially secure lie to keep working, and would those at risk lose their jobs? Basically, "you're at risk, so go home and be unemployed and sit there waiting for the world to move on without you and strip you of everything"? I'm not saying there's a right or wrong answer, I'm just wondering about how selective quarantining would have worked in practice.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#66

Post by fuoqi » Wed, Jun 17, 2020, 1:33 PM UTC

RobertoG wrote: post #49

tclancy wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you missed the point. If the current administration, or possibly some other dumb one in the future, undermines US credibility where other countries unpeg from the dollar, we are going to turn into a shithole country pretty quickly.

"other countries unpeg from the dollar.." I don't know what that means. In the current international arrangements all the important currencies are floating against each other all the time. The value of the dollar (respect other currencies) comes from being the currency of one of the most valuable economies in the world.

I think you severely underestimate the power of positive feedback. Some economists argue that around of third of US GDP can be attributed to the unique position of the dollar. If for some reason foreign investors and governments will lose their faith in dollar (even today gov. bonds already have negative inflation-adjusted profits, imagine if inflation will be 10%-20%), then they will start to dump bonds and assets nominated in $ (and don't forget about even potential targeted economic attacks, e.g. from China).

This will mean that not only the third of GDP will effectively disappear, but also that all inflation which was exported into the outer world until now will come back at once. This will launch a crisis an order of magnitude bigger than 08, which can be QEd anymore, because no one outside and probably inside US will buy gov bonds anymore (it's effectively already true today, but for now it's compensated by a low money velocity due to the pandemic). Without cheap money US business will lose a lot of its competitive advantage. And don't forget that capital today is much more mobile compared to the beginning of the 20th century and thus positive feedback forces are that much stronger.

This will mean that "one of the most valuable economies in the world" is in a very shaky position. I really-really hope that this scenario will not end in a nuclear war...

P.S.: Japan is in a different position, IIRC most of its debt kept inside the country. Plus it's a creditor nation, while US is a massively debtor one.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#67

Post by StillBored » Wed, Jun 17, 2020, 1:35 PM UTC

willvarfar wrote: post #65

StillBored wrote: post #63

I'm in Austin TX, it looked empty like that a month ago. It was nice, not to have to sit around in traffic for once... OTOH, it took about a week before the roads/stores were full again. Around here there are plenty of closed businesses too, but the ones that are open seem about as busy (if not more) so than usual. While the idea of shutting everything down during a pandemic to keep from wiping out 50% of the populat…

Just playing devils advocate, but if only those at risk were supposed to quarantine, would those at risk but not financially secure lie to keep working, and would those at risk lose their jobs? Basically, "you're at risk, so go home and be unemployed and sit there waiting for the world to move on without you and strip you of everything"? I'm not saying there's a right or wrong answer, I'm just wondering about how sel…

Well, hopefully some solid unemployment funding would have been sufficient (or at least a good start). Not that I consider the current unemployment checks to be particularly helpful given how at least in austin they are 1/2 of the average wage.

You would be talking a few percent of people staying home collecting unemployment (say 2-4%) which is about 1/3 of the current national unemployment. Yes, there probably would be a decline in restaurant/etc business because people were "social distancing" but nothing like stopping everything that wasn't a grocery store. But even then it would not be as bad. Overwhelmingly the older generation is the one at risk, and is already retired and staying home. It was the young 20 somethings working "service industry" that were all sent home. The ones with the lowest health risk, and the largest financial need.

AKA, it would be a big recession, but nothing like what we are about to experience.

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#68

Post by polycaster » Wed, Jun 17, 2020, 1:35 PM UTC

This thing with nailing boards to the office front is alienating me. What's underlying this strange behavior? Is the general expectation of damage being done to uninhibited buildings really reasonable?

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#69

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jun 17, 2020, 1:37 PM UTC

polycaster wrote: post #68

This thing with nailing boards to the office front is alienating me. What's underlying this strange behavior? Is the general expectation of damage being done to uninhibited buildings really reasonable?

[deleted]

Re: Pyrrhic Victory

#70

Post by tclancy » Wed, Jun 17, 2020, 1:38 PM UTC

RobertoG wrote: post #49

tclancy wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you missed the point. If the current administration, or possibly some other dumb one in the future, undermines US credibility where other countries unpeg from the dollar, we are going to turn into a shithole country pretty quickly.

"other countries unpeg from the dollar.." I don't know what that means. In the current international arrangements all the important currencies are floating against each other all the time. The value of the dollar (respect other currencies) comes from being the currency of one of the most valuable economies in the world.

Sorry, "unpeg" was the wrong word entirely and muddied what I meant to say. If US dollars stop being the de facto accepted exchange currency we are in trouble.