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Religion may become extinct in nine nations

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations

#11

Post by tomjen3 »

winestock wrote: post #5

Religion isn't the only thing becoming extinct in those nations. Go to Wikipedia and search for "Demographics of X " where X is a nation from the list given in the above-linked article: Australia, Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Switzerland. (Nation/ Total Fertility Rate) (Australia/ 1.97) (Austria/ 1.41) (Canada/ 1.58) (Czech Republic/ 1.49) (Finland/ 1.85) (Irela…

There is no way to make a table on hn :(

But in general better education leads to more wealth, more time spend in schools and those who have college degrees are less likely to be religious and they are less likely to have children (the price of kids is low if they can help out on the farm, very high if you have to raise them in a modern society).

I don't know a good solution to this, but I suppose the problem with fix it self on way or another.

Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations

#12

Post by noarchy »

tjic wrote: post #10
noarchy wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have 20 years of data points from Rome in 30 AD?

We've got several hundreds years of writing, temple records, etc.

Is that several hundred years of data that can give us information comparable to the census data used in the BBC-cited report?

Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations

#14

Post by Qz »

winestock wrote: post #5

Religion isn't the only thing becoming extinct in those nations. Go to Wikipedia and search for "Demographics of X " where X is a nation from the list given in the above-linked article: Australia, Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Switzerland. (Nation/ Total Fertility Rate) (Australia/ 1.97) (Austria/ 1.41) (Canada/ 1.58) (Czech Republic/ 1.49) (Finland/ 1.85) (Irela…

Correlation != causation.

Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations

#16

Post by othello »

winestock wrote: post #5

Religion isn't the only thing becoming extinct in those nations. Go to Wikipedia and search for "Demographics of X " where X is a nation from the list given in the above-linked article: Australia, Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Switzerland. (Nation/ Total Fertility Rate) (Australia/ 1.97) (Austria/ 1.41) (Canada/ 1.58) (Czech Republic/ 1.49) (Finland/ 1.85) (Irela…

What do you make of France, which with Ireland has the highest fertility rate in Europe (2.01 in 2010 [1]), while Catholicism can hardly be described as thriving there: 4.5% of French people go to mass at least once a week [2].

Social policies such as benefits for families with two or more kids and low-cost, widely available day-care centers for children under 3 that allow women to work and have kids sound far more important to me than any "residual Catholic natalism".

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France#Demographics

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France#Religion

Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations

#17

Post by jerf »

winestock wrote: post #5

Religion isn't the only thing becoming extinct in those nations. Go to Wikipedia and search for "Demographics of X " where X is a nation from the list given in the above-linked article: Australia, Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Switzerland. (Nation/ Total Fertility Rate) (Australia/ 1.97) (Austria/ 1.41) (Canada/ 1.58) (Czech Republic/ 1.49) (Finland/ 1.85) (Irela…

Closest thing you can do is put two spaces in front of every line and monospace it:

  Nation          Total Fertility Rate 
  ------------------------------------
  Australia       1.97
  Austria         1.41
  Canada          1.58 
  Czech Republic  1.49 
  Finland         1.85
  Ireland         2.1 
  Netherlands     1.66 
  New Zealand     2.1 
  Switzerland     1.46
(Also, I'm just doing the convenience of formatting it in this message. No particular endorsement or independent verification here.)

Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations

#18

Post by jtheory »

tomjen3 wrote: post #11
winestock wrote: post #5

Religion isn't the only thing becoming extinct in those nations. Go to Wikipedia and search for "Demographics of X " where X is a nation from the list given in the above-linked article: Australia, Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Switzerland. (Nation/ Total Fertility Rate) (Australia/ 1.97) (Austria/ 1.41) (Canada/ 1.58) (Czech Republic/ 1.49) (Finland/ 1.85) (Irela…

There is no way to make a table on hn :( But in general better education leads to more wealth, more time spend in schools and those who have college degrees are less likely to be religious and they are less likely to have children (the price of kids is low if they can help out on the farm, very high if you have to raise them in a modern society). I don't know a good solution to this, but I suppose the problem with fi…

Look at fertility in France. It's not because people here are highly religious, for sure.

Instead, the government simply put lots of programs into place to support family raising -- high-quality free daycare, long school hours (so both parents can get back to work and mothers don't have to sacrifice careers), hefty tax breaks per child, medical care (for birth & pre/post natal, but also pediatric care).

And (a bit more oddly) the medical care a mother gets after giving birth has a heavy focus on getting her back into shape for restarting her sex life -- it's standard to be prescribed a course of physical therapy to retrain the perineums of new mothers for exactly that reason.

All of these programs designed to help mothers keep working, etc. are not because at heart the French are feminists; they are not. Sexism is rampant. BUT they want mothers to have babies, so they figured out how to make that happen.

The system isn't perfect by a long shot, and it's not always ideal to have the state raise your kids as much as tends to happen here, but it's certainly quite successful: the birth rate is about 2 births per woman and slowly rising.

Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations

#19

Post by jerf »

Qz wrote: post #14
winestock wrote: post #5

Religion isn't the only thing becoming extinct in those nations. Go to Wikipedia and search for "Demographics of X " where X is a nation from the list given in the above-linked article: Australia, Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Switzerland. (Nation/ Total Fertility Rate) (Australia/ 1.97) (Austria/ 1.41) (Canada/ 1.58) (Czech Republic/ 1.49) (Finland/ 1.85) (Irela…

Correlation != causation.

Yes, but so what? "Correlation != causation" != "no relationship so we can all just stop thinking about it". Whether it's causative, reverse causative, or two things caused by a shared third factor that may also have other effects, there's a there there that can't be waved away by a trite, fashionable two words and a math symbol. Careful reading of the "bottom line" winestock posted will show that (s)he actually understands this.

Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations

#20

Post by winestock »

othello wrote: post #16
winestock wrote: post #5

Religion isn't the only thing becoming extinct in those nations. Go to Wikipedia and search for "Demographics of X " where X is a nation from the list given in the above-linked article: Australia, Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Switzerland. (Nation/ Total Fertility Rate) (Australia/ 1.97) (Austria/ 1.41) (Canada/ 1.58) (Czech Republic/ 1.49) (Finland/ 1.85) (Irela…

What do you make of France, which with Ireland has the highest fertility rate in Europe (2.01 in 2010 [1]), while Catholicism can hardly be described as thriving there: 4.5% of French people go to mass at least once a week [2]. Social policies such as benefits for families with two or more kids and low-cost, widely available day-care centers for children under 3 that allow women to work and have kids sound far more i…

There used to be a saying among French Catholics: "If the traditionalists win, then the liturgical language of France will be Latin. If they lose, it will be Arabic."

Muslim immigration into France accounts for the high fertility.

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