Religion may become extinct in nine nations
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Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations
#2I find this very interesting, and I hope that they get it peer reviewed somewhere so it's more "official" than arxiv. I don't normally view religion as a social activity, and this analysis seems to hinge on social factors (i.e. it seems to be counting edges instead of nodes). Religion doesn't seem to necessitate multiple people in the same way that language does, so I wonder whether their model might be fundamentally flawed. Looks like my pile of papers to read just got a couple pages higher.
The link to download the paper is here if anyone wants it.
Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations
#3I find this very interesting, and I hope that they get it peer reviewed somewhere so it's more "official" than arxiv. I don't normally view religion as a social activity, and this analysis seems to hinge on social factors (i.e. it seems to be counting edges instead of nodes). Religion doesn't seem to necessitate multiple people in the same way that language does, so I wonder whether their model might be fundamentally…
I don't normally view religion as a social activity ... Religion doesn't seem to necessitate multiple people in the same way that language does
I believe there's some disagreement over whether religion is characterized as primarily a set of beliefs individuals hold, or primarily a sociological phenomenon. Clearly most religions have a mixture of both, so the disagreement is over which is more important or definitional. I think most sociologists tend to see it as more of a social phenomenon, with the role of shared beliefs being just one kind of social glue. Linguistically, we don't seem to call personal beliefs that one person holds, not shared by anyone else, a "religion"; religions seem to require some sort of community of members.
Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations
#4Even the great Hari Seldon was unable to accurately turn mathematical models into true predictions of human society without the intervention of R. Daneel Olivaw.
Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations
#5Religion isn't the only thing becoming extinct in those nations.
Go to Wikipedia and search for "Demographics of X" where X is a nation from the list given in the above-linked article: Australia, Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Switzerland.
(Nation/ Total Fertility Rate) (Australia/ 1.97) (Austria/ 1.41) (Canada/ 1.58) (Czech Republic/ 1.49) (Finland/ 1.85) (Ireland/ 2.1) (Netherlands/ 1.66) (New Zealand/ 2.1) (Switzerland/ 1.46)
Those numbers are for the years 2007 to 2009, depending on the nation. Note that only Ireland and New Zealand are at replacement levels. Residual Catholic natalism may explain Ireland's current fertility (given their loss of religion, don't expect that to last). Reading between the lines in the Wikipedia article for New Zealand, it seems that the Maori and Pacific Islanders are doing more than their fair share of baby-making. My guess is that they are more religious than the contracepting whites.
Bottom line: Lack of religion is either non-adaptive from a fitness perspective, or it is strongly tied to traits which are themselves non-adaptive.
UPDATE: I can't get the formatting right on that table of fertility rates.
Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations
#6I find this very interesting, and I hope that they get it peer reviewed somewhere so it's more "official" than arxiv. I don't normally view religion as a social activity, and this analysis seems to hinge on social factors (i.e. it seems to be counting edges instead of nodes). Religion doesn't seem to necessitate multiple people in the same way that language does, so I wonder whether their model might be fundamentally…
I don't normally view religion as a social activity ... Religion doesn't seem to necessitate multiple people in the same way that language does I believe there's some disagreement over whether religion is characterized as primarily a set of beliefs individuals hold, or primarily a sociological phenomenon. Clearly most religions have a mixture of both, so the disagreement is over which is more important or definitiona…
Indeed, I wonder how different the results would have been had they asked, "do you believe in a deity?" or "are you spiritual?"
Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations
#7I find this very interesting, and I hope that they get it peer reviewed somewhere so it's more "official" than arxiv. I don't normally view religion as a social activity, and this analysis seems to hinge on social factors (i.e. it seems to be counting edges instead of nodes). Religion doesn't seem to necessitate multiple people in the same way that language does, so I wonder whether their model might be fundamentally…
I don't normally view religion as a social activity ... Religion doesn't seem to necessitate multiple people in the same way that language does I believe there's some disagreement over whether religion is characterized as primarily a set of beliefs individuals hold, or primarily a sociological phenomenon. Clearly most religions have a mixture of both, so the disagreement is over which is more important or definitiona…
I fall more in the philosophical camp than the sociological camp with regards to religion, as I use the term to describe a subject of thought rather than a cultural institution, which is how your sociologists seem to be characterizing it.
I'm not sure that your linguistic argument holds in this case, because we're actually discussing the specifics of what "religion" means and so we can't appeal to standard usage. I, for instance, wouldn't call someone's personal beliefs on God a "religion" any more than I would call someone's personal beliefs on mental illness a "psychology" or their views on continental drift a "geography". In my mind, it just doesn't make sense for someone to possess a subject of thought.
If religion requires active participation in a community, then the existence of hermits who feel drawn to separate themselves from society to focus more on God seems to be a strong enough counterpoint that there's more going on. Like you say, there's disagreement about the term, but I'm just pointing out that this study only seems to make sense in a purely social way. People in these nine countries aren't going to stop thinking about God, death or any of the other usual subjects of religious materials, so I think calling for the extinction of religion is a bit premature.
Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations
#8Public and private religiosity was ramping down in the Roman Empire around 30 AD as well.
Beware taking 20 years worth of data points and drawing century long lines from them.
Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations
#9Public and private religiosity was ramping down in the Roman Empire around 30 AD as well. Beware taking 20 years worth of data points and drawing century long lines from them.
Do you have 20 years of data points from Rome in 30 AD?
Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations
#10Public and private religiosity was ramping down in the Roman Empire around 30 AD as well. Beware taking 20 years worth of data points and drawing century long lines from them.
Do you have 20 years of data points from Rome in 30 AD?
We've got several hundreds years of writing, temple records, etc.