Live data from Hacker News

An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

economist.com

61–70 of 403 posts

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#61

I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…

Well of course you say that, you're an ML researcher who likely went into the field expecting further steady progress comparable to what we saw between 2012 and 2016. If actual progress in the field would be slower than what is currently still expected by the majority of people this would have dramatic consequences for future research investment, which is why you see most ML researchers reinforcing the hype or at least not talking the hype down.

While the accomplishments in the last 8 years have been impressive and applications of those techniques have and will continue to have impact in the real world I think that there are extremely big obstacles in the way towards something that would be truly transformative and which would put a lot of people out of work, which the $20 trillion industry estimates assume. Unfortunately I have seen no evidence that there are sufficiently good ideas in the field to bypass the upcoming roadblocks.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#62

I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…

Your comment is a little hand-wavy and strongly worded ("revolution", "immeasurable", "limitless", "all domains").

Many things have exponential growth - bacterial reproduction, compound interest, certain chemical reactions. It's important to understand that this does not automatically result in miraculous universal transformation, but must be considered in the context of the world we live in. A little humility is always in order.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#64
post #33

I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…

Honest curiosity: do you have some examples of interesting applications? Large and small?

I work on a production ML platform, so I spend way too much time rabbit-holing on interesting looking projects.

If you're looking for interesting startups/projects-not-from-big-tech:

- Glisten.ai (https://www.glisten.ai/). Recent YC startup, uses a combination of different models to parse product information (actually a huge manual problem in retail/ecommerce) and expose it as an api.

- Wildlife Protection Solutions - Recently deployed a model that can automatically detect poachers in nature preserves. Detects twice as many poachers as previous monitoring solutions.

- Ezra.ai - Uses models to search MRIs for cancers, operational in a few different US cities.

- AI Dungeon - A text adventure game built on GPT-2 (now GPT-3). Super fun, if a little silly.

Now, those are just a handful of smaller companies whose core products are ML. There are a ton of financial institutions using ML for fraud detection, real estate platforms like Reonomy that use a variety of models for evaluating investments, and security companies using ML.

But of course, the obvious answer to this question is "Every popular app you use incorporates ML."

Gmail: Smart Compose, spam filtering, etc.

Uber/Maps: ETA Prediction

Netflix/Spotify/all content platforms: Recommendation engines

Facebook/Instagram/Snap/image apps: A variety of models for recognizing faces, object tracking, etc.

People have this weird "Skynet or it's snake oil" paradigm they use to evaluate ML, ignoring the fact that production machine learning is more or less ubiquitous at this point.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#65
It's limited but so effective! The other day a friend asked for photos of her sister (also a friend) that I had because it's her birthday and she wanted to make a collage. I just searched on Google Photos by her name and it found a bunch because of the face classification. That's some good shit.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, consider me intrigued. What is that we are going to see/experience once you folks had some time? Genuine question! Can you give us a basic idea of the things that you are already sure by now will see the light of day?

Mathematical modeling that is 3-6 orders of magnitude faster, we are already talking deployment. Same for ML powered solutions to data management - I don't want to say enough to identify anything. My team has been working on a rudimentary humanlike reasoning engine based loosely on what AlphaGo proved: that machines can learn heuristics identical, equal to, or better than those of humans. And for perspective, AlphaGo…

I know you might mean well, but I can't help but get the same feeling reading your post as I do every time I read a wide-eyed self-proclaimed "futurist" snake oil enthusiast going on about something along the lines of how we're all going to be sending our children to pre-school in autonomous flying vehicles within the next few years, or listening to blockchain snake oil salesmen rant about how the whole world is going to revolve around their shitcoin in the near future.

I feel like I've been reading or hearing a repeat of the same ML/"AI" "my team has something huge just around the corner" pitch every week for at least a decade now, and always with the "but I can't be more specific because reasons" and "just look at how much this other thing improved over X years!" aspects tacked on. The only thing that changes each time is the person making the claim.

Less time making grandiose claims on internet forums might give you more time to produce something that could at least be passed as partially living up to those claims, or at least give you the right to say "we tried" in your "amazing journey" post somewhere down the line.

I hope to be proven wrong, but in my experiences the people actually achieving impressive things aren't out there loudly bragging about it before they have anything to show.

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#67
post #4

"The result is an artificial idiot savant that can excel at well-bounded tasks, but can get things very wrong if faced with unexpected input." I think this gets to the core of what is still a limitation of current technologies. Venturing into the unknown is still a deeply relevant task that seems unlikely to be replaced by computers anytime soon.

> can get things very wrong if faced with unexpected input Alice: Bob, Can you translate "Eat my shorts" into latin for me? Bob: No. I don't speak latin. Alice: Go on - try anyway. Bob: "Eatus mine shortus" Alice: Wrong! The answer is "Vescere bracis meis". You're totally wrong Bob! I was expecting more of you!

You missed the preface:

Bob's manager: Here's Bob. You paid a gazillion dollars for him, and he can translate whatever you want. Any language, whenever – the true revolution everyone's been talking about. Your life and our economy will never be the same.

Alice: Bob, Can you translate "Eat my shorts" into latin for me?

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#68
post #59

We have also been watching these machine learning models for 6 months: - increase the volatility in virtually every financial market they touched - be exploited by adversarial learning networks to amplify funded propaganda as news - use poorly contrived sentiment analysis to generate incomprehensibly meaningless news headlines These non-linear "function approximators" have absolutely unpredictable and insane non-line…

https://youtu.be/hx7BXih7zx8?t=513

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#69

I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…

[deleted]

Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in

#70
post #51

Is it just me, or is AI never capitalized in TFA? Every time I encountered the word while reading it was like a cache miss for my brain...

Do you have NoScript or some other blocker on? As far as I can tell, Economist.com is using smallcaps for all acronyms but for some reason, the smallcaps are implemented solely through JavaScript, so if you read without that, you just see lower-case. The lowercase is because if you have uppercase, smallcaps does nothing - it can't become 'small capitals' because it's already large capitals, as it were. Letters need to be lowercase to be smallcaps. So, that's why you see 'ai' instead of 'AI'. So the 'ai' can properly transform into 'ᴀɪ'.

This is bad because JS is not necessary, and it is also not necessary to write in lower-case in the first place! I know this because I do a similar thing on gwern.net: in addition to manually-specified smallcaps formatting, a rewrite pass while compiling automatically annotates any >=3-letter acronym. However, I do it purely via CSS, and I also don't need to lowercase anything. How? Because a good font like Source Serif Pro will include a special feature which will smallcaps just capital letters: 'c2sc' in `font-feature-settings` CSS. So to do smallcaps correctly, of regular text & uppercase, you have 2 CSS classes: "smallcaps" and "smallcaps-auto". "smallcaps" gets the normal 'smcp' font feature and operates the usual way, lowercase gets smallcaps, uppercase is left alone. "smallcaps-auto" is used by the acronym rewrite pass, and it does ''smcp', 'c2sc'' instead, so "AI" does indeed get smallcaps.

This way, I need 0 JS, I don't need to write everything in lowercase, copy-paste works perfectly, I don't need to manually annotate acronyms unless I want to, and everything Just Works for every reader.

(I don't, however, smallcaps two-letter things like "AI". That's just silly looking.)

Post reply on HN