This sounds like what was writtein in 2001 about Internet. I don't know - videoconferencing is still a problem, but there is progress.
An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in
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Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
People don't understand what exponential improvement means. GPT-3 is a 175B with B parameter model. Another few rounds of doubling and we could be seeing models spit out short stories and novellas.
Yet, the darn thing still can't reason.
They "can't reason" but they can solve symbolic integration and differential equations (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.06462.pdf), beat us at all board games, and more recently get to be almost impossible to tell apart from human writing (GPT3).
Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in
#23I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…
Ok, consider me intrigued. What is that we are going to see/experience once you folks had some time? Genuine question! Can you give us a basic idea of the things that you are already sure by now will see the light of day?
Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in
#24Apart from a true GAI, the research has progressed really fast. We’ve seen a huge leaps in e.g. image generation and speech synthesis during the last few years that I’m really interested on what the future will bring.
Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in
#25The next article in the series, see the menu on the left, describes Donald Knuth as "a programming guru." :)
Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in
#26This is a good article. I don't understand why people find it questionable and get so defensive about it. It does not deny the fast progress nor the potential of current/future techniques. It is simply an explanation for the layman of things that should be obvious to any practitioner in the field.
Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in
#27Article with out paywall: https://outline.com/TDeWbY
Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in
#28I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…
There has been next to ZERO progress towards genuine AGI despite a never-ending deluge of AI articles; that's normally the cause of scepticism. After several decades and a much-hyped last few years we have fake cleverness - impressively so in both cases - but nothing more.
> After several decades and a much-hyped last few years we have fake cleverness - impressively so in both cases - but nothing more.
Why should I care if my fridge is fake clever or real clever?
Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in
#29I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…
Ok, consider me intrigued. What is that we are going to see/experience once you folks had some time? Genuine question! Can you give us a basic idea of the things that you are already sure by now will see the light of day?
Mathematical modeling that is 3-6 orders of magnitude faster, we are already talking deployment.
Same for ML powered solutions to data management - I don't want to say enough to identify anything.
My team has been working on a rudimentary humanlike reasoning engine based loosely on what AlphaGo proved: that machines can learn heuristics identical, equal to, or better than those of humans.
And for perspective, AlphaGo was what...4 years ago? Just look at the growth of compute available cheaply in the cloud since then! These next few decades are going going to see a phenomenal acceleration that's already starting...assuming we don't hit some unforseen limit or block. But even with what we've discovered now, we have more than enough in the way of new tools to refine across industry and society for decades.
Re: An understanding of AI’s limitations is starting to sink in
#30I'm not sure how anyone who's watched the exponential growth of a brand new domain can pick a point today to and say that things aren't as good as we expected. What may have happened was that some eager CEOs have overpromised on timelines and resources. But the revolution is coming, ML is already starting to change society. We're building the tech. Right now. The author does not even realise the immeasurable potentia…
Absolutely. To be perfectly honest, it surprises me the extent to which ML naysaying seems to be popular on HN. The evidence of enormous progress seems pretty obvious to me.
I think ML naysaying stems mostly from extravagant claims of pop-sci articles around papers or of the authors themselves. It is always good to have some amount of people that point out that the models aren't some cyborg superheroes or has to be a step towards AGI but be more practical.