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Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

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Re: Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

#41
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You care to put your money where your mouth is? I've got 500 bucks that says you're wrong.

500? Sounds good to me. Meet me in the options market. Edit: Bought 10 July 28 puts and sold 10 July 27 puts against it. If AT&T is below 27 by July expiration I make $500. If the stock is above 28 by July expiration I lose $500.

I had never thought about this, but that is one hell of a way to put your money where your mouth is.

Interesting ... very interesting.

Re: Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

#42

Without knowing much about the mechanics of acquisitions of this magnitude, how plausible is it that AT&T made the offer simply to prevent Sprint from acquiring T-Mobile and creating another competitor? I mean, if they're pretty sure the FTC would block them anyway, if they set a high price, they've just made it harder for Sprint to attain their size.

There is probably a hefty break up fee in an acquisition this big which would make this scenario unlikely.

Re: Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

#43
My response to this related HN post: http://hackerne.ws/item?id=2349678

My proudest accomplishment in law school was a research paper I wrote entitled "Anti-Antitrust: The Need for Antitrust Law Reform."

In that paper, I argued that antitrust law as applied today totally misses the point: the issue shouldn't be whether a company, otherwise satisfying the elements of a monopoly, is harming competitors, but whether a company is actually harming consumers. Put another way: who is complaining about the alleged anticompetitive tactics: competitors, or consumers?

If one studies all the big antitrust cases of the 20th century -- from Alcoa, to DuPont, to Microsoft -- a curious trend emerges: it was always those companies' competitors who took issue with seemingly anticompetitive tactics of the big evil "trusts," and rarely -- if ever -- was it the consumers themselves.

A great example of this is Microsoft in the 1990s: do any of you -- aside from our realm of early adopter computer savvy tech types -- genuinely remember any everyday computer users actually complaining that Windows came preinstalled with IE instead of Netscape? Were consumers actually harmed, were they actually suffering? No: the only "people" who had an issue with MS bundling IE with Windows -- frankly, a brilliant strategy -- were Microsoft's competitors, and not, in fact, MS's customers.

So my take on this ATT & T-mobile merger is simple: the investigation should not focus on whether ATT/T-mobile is a monopoly from competitors' points of view, but whether it is anticompetitive to the point of actually harming consumers, e.g., with higher prices, etc.

Frankly, a good example of a company that really deserves a DOJ investigation is Apple -- IFF customers start to actually complain, and not not just Apple's competitors' start to complain.

Put more simply: a DOJ investigation into whether a company is a monopoly should be based upon whether consumers -- not competitors -- are actually being harmed by the allegedly anticompetitive tactics of a "monopoly."

After all, a company could not become a monopoly without customers' support in the first place. So clearly they have done something right that customers appreciate.

A "monopoly" that is not causing harm to consumers, either directly or indirectly, is not necessarily so terrible a thing. In fact, as with Apple, it is often the case that consumers enjoy a net benefit from such a company.

Re: Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

#44
post #3

This quote summarizes the whole issue for me: Two weeks ago, as it happens, I took my business away from AT&T. The reason? Simple. T-Mobile offered me a better deal. Lower prices. No two-year contract. And monthy savings because I brought my own phone. It was a free market. So I moved. And now, that choice is gone. Sure, you can choose between companies A, B, & C. All of which cost roughly the same, nickel & dime you…

I'm actually not so sure. At least for me, the problem has always been that it's so hard to switch carriers because of handset lock-in and the different radio bands/technologies the different carriers are using.

Seems to me that if ATT buys Tmob, and maybe Vzn buys Sprint, it'll be a duopoly, but at least they'll both be converging on the LTE standard, which would theoretically make it easier to switch between the two with a single handset, making them actually compete on price/coverage/speed/service, etc.

Re: Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

#45
post #3

This quote summarizes the whole issue for me: Two weeks ago, as it happens, I took my business away from AT&T. The reason? Simple. T-Mobile offered me a better deal. Lower prices. No two-year contract. And monthy savings because I brought my own phone. It was a free market. So I moved. And now, that choice is gone. Sure, you can choose between companies A, B, & C. All of which cost roughly the same, nickel & dime you…

I'm actually not so sure. At least for me, the problem has always been that it's so hard to switch carriers because of handset lock-in and the different radio bands/technologies the different carriers are using. Seems to me that if ATT buys Tmob, and maybe Vzn buys Sprint, it'll be a duopoly, but at least they'll both be converging on the LTE standard, which would theoretically make it easier to switch between the tw…

I don't believe can be considered open and fair competition until the US outlaws selling cell phones which are carrier locked and all providers are required to offer fair discounts for unsubsidized/no-contract customers.

Even then, you'll have 2 options, both of which suck.

Re: Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

#46
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's so bad about a monopoly in a free market? Doesn't that just create opportunity for some other carrier, perhaps a currently small regional company, to step up and fill that hole? If the pain is big enough, there will be competition. If we mandate competition, it's not a FREE market.

"If we mandate competition, it's not a FREE market." In addition to the other fine replies made, I want to highlight this to strongly disagree with it. In fact actually having a free market requires aggressively protecting it when a given market naturally coalesces into a monopoly or oligarchy. Trust-busting isn't an anti-free-market position, it's a pro-free-market position. The anti-free-market actions come from go…

Trust busting is an anti-free-market position. The freemarket consists of individuals voluntarily interacting. Any position that advocates coercion, i.e. government interference, is anti-free-market.

Re: Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

#47
post #2

Mr. Arends makes a very strong argument. And really, if you need a shorthand way to understand this issue, all you need to know is that the Bush Administration stripped away the limits on one company's ownership of spectrum. Republicans talk a good game about the "free market", but it's internally inconsistent talk; you can't have a free market if the number of players in said market gets below a certain level. 4-5 i…

What's so bad about a monopoly in a free market? Doesn't that just create opportunity for some other carrier, perhaps a currently small regional company, to step up and fill that hole? If the pain is big enough, there will be competition. If we mandate competition, it's not a FREE market.

[deleted]

Re: Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

#48
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"If we mandate competition, it's not a FREE market." In addition to the other fine replies made, I want to highlight this to strongly disagree with it. In fact actually having a free market requires aggressively protecting it when a given market naturally coalesces into a monopoly or oligarchy. Trust-busting isn't an anti-free-market position, it's a pro-free-market position. The anti-free-market actions come from go…

Trust busting is an anti-free-market position. The freemarket consists of individuals voluntarily interacting. Any position that advocates coercion, i.e. government interference, is anti-free-market.

Trusts are a coercion, and a crime greater than a bit of government trust-busting. (Or, in really far-out versions of anarchist theory, non-government trust busting. I don't know of any real-world examples of that, though.) I do not naively believe that an economy can be run completely without coercion, but that such coercion as is necessary should be turned to keeping the market free. The optimal ideal case for free markets simply doesn't obtain everywhere. Spectrum is at least dubious; perhaps now we could just run it as a free market and it could work (people with far more knowledge about radio issues than me have argued both sides of this, I can only sit on the sidelines of that one and wave genially) but that certainly wasn't the case in the analog radio era.

Re: Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

#49
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It actually ended in January 2009.

Really? I couldn't tell the differences based on how the new guy has been acting(see: Wall Street bailout, lack of standing tall with Wisconsin Union, Domain Take-Down practice, etc). I wish it were different than this, why I voted for change in the first place. Ah well.

You drank the Kool-aid.

Re: Why AT&T’s deal for T-Mobile must be blocked

#50
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm actually not so sure. At least for me, the problem has always been that it's so hard to switch carriers because of handset lock-in and the different radio bands/technologies the different carriers are using. Seems to me that if ATT buys Tmob, and maybe Vzn buys Sprint, it'll be a duopoly, but at least they'll both be converging on the LTE standard, which would theoretically make it easier to switch between the tw…

I don't believe can be considered open and fair competition until the US outlaws selling cell phones which are carrier locked and all providers are required to offer fair discounts for unsubsidized/no-contract customers. Even then, you'll have 2 options, both of which suck.

I pretty much agree with you, but right now we have four options that all mostly suck. I think that's partly because of the tech/bands. If it were two companies with handsets that worked on both, I think it would help.

But you're probably right that the subsidization/contract model is a bigger problem.

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