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No Recent Automation Revolution

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Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#191

Post by slavik81 »

ponker wrote: post #83
dragontamer wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Amish are actually some of the most successful businessmen. So... its probably not all just "friends and family values" in the Amish world. Despite a luddite-based culture and "technically" an 8th grade education, they're probably one of the hardest working people around. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2016/06... -------- They just figured out where to focus their business chops. Organic foo…

The Amish have built a prosperous life for themselves selling their brand of "quaintness" to Goldman Sachs traders buying curio cabinets and porch swings for their place in Sag Harbor.

My impression is that their brand is more about quality. I can't imagine the Amish "cost-optimizing" like big manufacturers do. So much stuff is a nice veneer with shoddy bones.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#192

Post by omginternets »

mc32 wrote: post #178
som33 wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I want an economy where we can celebrate automation and distribute the profits evenly. Not going to happen under capitalism. Look at the numbers, they are pretty horrifying. https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/power/images/wealth/Net_wor... https://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html

Do you think it has a chance of happening in Vietnam or North Korea under communism?

No, the parent poster does not have Vietnam, nor North Korea, nor even communism in mind.

You know this, and we know you know this.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#193

Post by concordDance »

pg-gadfly wrote: post #128
dgudkov wrote: post #110

Automation happens not where many expect it (including the media). It is frequently expected that automation will come as replacement for humans, while it actually is coming in the form of better tooling and assistance to humans. This theoretically should be reflected in work productivity, not in employment numbers.

It should be noted that as efficiency increases, the company can compete and lower prices, meaning people don't _have to_ go to work as much to achieve the same level of living. Provided there is competition

Companies can spend unlimited on advertising, marketting (including social media manipulation), regulatory compliance and lobbying.

These areas have grown hugely, eating up all the gains, and will continue to eat all the gains so that the number of work hours needed is constant.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#194

Post by ludamad »

mumblemumble wrote: post #189
barrkel wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making something that other people are willing to reward with the fruits of their own labour is about as honest a social measure of worth as you can get outside of friends and family.

It's also not something that would be taken away by diverting excess productivity to covering people's basic needs. I can at least imagine a world where doing so spurs a renaissance of creativity and entrepreneurship, because, just like you said, people seem to have an innate need to try and do something productive with their time. If there's a real social fear that I hold, it's that we'd suddenly have supply problem…

"I'd have spent that time working on some of the ideas I had for software projects instead." Then this takes off, makes you money, and you are higher class than those who keep their skills "for fun"

EDIT: Not sure if this was understood, this was meant on a commentary on how capitalism and class can find its why back into such a system

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#195

Post by mc32 »

omginternets wrote: post #192
mc32 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think it has a chance of happening in Vietnam or North Korea under communism?

No, the parent poster does not have Vietnam, nor North Korea, nor even communism in mind. You know this, and we know you know this.

Fair enough, so not capitalism, not communism.

What political system might be capable of meeting these requirements? Is it the political equivalent of unobtanium or vaporware?

Im not trying to be a smartass; I want to know what the answer might look like. It doesn’t have to be a treatise. Just something consistent with a chance at succeeding with non-ideal people.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#196

Post by naasking »

randallsquared wrote: post #161
naasking wrote: post #52

1999-2019 is not the interesting period of automation. I'm surprised the authors think it's even relevant. 2020-2040 will be the period to watch.

Except the spirit of this statement was being expressed in 2000, as well, on mailing lists and usenet of the day.

Sure, but I doubt they gave firm timelines. Future projections are always murky, but it seems pretty clear that the tech is in a much better spot and the incentives are now stronger than ever. Human workers get sick and can't work? Automate them away!

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#197

Post by JoeAltmaier »

Yet automation equipment has boomed in the last 20 years. Factory floors are largely devoid of human beings. The US factory employment figures are down by more than half in that time, and that with a population that's doubled (so per-capita, factory occupations down to 25% or less or what it was).

Companies move to India or China, then some move back but with none of the assembly jobs, because they don't move back until the investment in automation is paid back efficiently.

Its easy to confuse 'automation across the job fields' with 'automation replacing people'. The first is slow - automation proceeds in rote assembly tasks and continuous-flow processes. But automation hasn't proceeded across the spectrum. I still get my fries from a human being. I still get my hair cut by Anton at a local shop. My car is fixed by Mr. Harapat (though it got assembled by a giant robot).

My nieces and nephews are automation Engineers. They are as busy as they can possibly be, changing plants over to automation. It's cost effective when a plant grows past a certain size/capacity. And with the rising tide of population, plants that served us 20 years ago are woefully boutique now, being rebuilt, and being rebuilt automated.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#198

Post by pedrocr »

gigel82 wrote: post #73

I don't know enough about industrial automation to form an opinion, but RPA is definitely coming for the rank-and-file office drones. You'd be surprised how many "paper pushers" still fill the cubicles of this world (their job literally to copy stuff from this ERP to this CRM or to this legacy Access / Excel / BI system). This is the low hanging fruit of job automation and enterprises are quickly figuring out what ki…

RPA is just systems integration for companies that have a broken software development process. That companies are having to resort to writing "robots" to fake pushing buttons in UIs should make you less confident in the advancement of automation not more.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#199

Post by DangitBobby »

eeZah7Ux wrote: post #149
DangitBobby wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spend more time doing my job than almost anything else. Sleeping is the only thing I spend more time doing. It might be healthier if I can avoid attaching so much importance and part of my identity to it, but I don't know how that's possible for me. Not only does it dominate my time, but it determines how much money I have for what I need and want and therefor what class of society I fit into and how difficult my l…

> Zen doublethink facepalm

Doublethink being the act of simultaneously knowing something to be false while believing it to be true, and "Zen" here being a state of inner piece. So "Zen doublethink" would be choosing to believe something that you know isn't true for the sake of inner peace.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#200

Post by wolfram74 »

barrkel wrote: post #177
kaybe wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really makes me sad that jobs are seen as inherently valuable. The way you phrase it, 'provide jobs', feels like jobs are something needed. Of course, in the current setup, this is true, but there are so many boring and hard jobs (worked by people who are yet poor) that we shouldn't mourn once we manage to get rid of them. I want an economy where we can celebrate automation and distribute the profits evenly.

Unearned income is unfulfilling and the people who think they earned it resent it being taken from them, even if it's only particularly large because there's a big market to sell into and a big winner effect in the market structure. I don't know the answers here but they don't look like free market capitalism or redistributive socialist utopia, and actually I think this axis or spectrum is an actively harmful frame f…

If unearned income is unfulfilling, we should raise the estate tax, why should the children of the poor be so blessed to need to work while the children of millionaires and billionaires be saddled with the curse of ennui?
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