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No Recent Automation Revolution

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Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#141

Post by DangitBobby »

nine_k wrote: post #63
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fear is very real, not about emasculation, but a loss of identity in a society where "you are your job". I have seen this first hand in both people who weren't "essential" during COVID shutdowns (to their horror), and people who were deemed "essential" but it was, in their words, "bullshit". Automation is rapidly accelerating into the wall that is identity beliefs at scale, and there is evidence that these belief…

"You are not your job" is one thing I keep teaching all my junior colleagues. Your work is not your identity, and should not be seriously attached to your ego. This helps very much at code review and performance review times.

I spend more time doing my job than almost anything else. Sleeping is the only thing I spend more time doing. It might be healthier if I can avoid attaching so much importance and part of my identity to it, but I don't know how that's possible for me. Not only does it dominate my time, but it determines how much money I have for what I need and want and therefor what class of society I fit into and how difficult my life is/can be as a result. Really I see it more of an act of Zen doublethink to believe that your work should not comprise any part of your identity given how central it is to your experience as a human.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#142

Post by tonyedgecombe »

dpenguin wrote: post #88

It’s basically modified Parkinson’s law at play - work will expand to most available workforce. With increased automation, either new jobs are created(thereby increasing the overall output of the economy) OR expectation for individual productivity is reduced, decreasing individual stress. History is your proof. Automation has been constantly increasing forever and there’s no job loss en masse because of that. Empiric…

Employment in manufacturing has been declining for 25 years whilst output was stable or even growing.

Of course there were new jobs created but serving burgers isn't a substitute for decent work. That's why you got Trump.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#143

Post by bildung »

krapp wrote: post #140
bildung wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I's say work being part of people's identity is much older than Christianity.

If we're talking about the Western world, and in particular, the politics and culture of class (of which "work being part of people's identity" is a part) then Judeo-Christian influence is the only influence that matters. And memes like the dignity of labor, the just world fallacy (that wealth and poverty have inherent moral dimensions) and welfare (or leftist/secular ideology) breeding laziness definitely have their…

I'm agreeing with everything you wrote (with the minor differentiation that this is mostly rooted in particular protestant branches, not Christianity per se), but in my understanding the opposition to UBI is not primarily about dignity, but about identity, hence my comment. People were displayed as their being their job, not just generic underlings to the king, on egyptian stela from 3000 BC.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#144

Post by pydry »

Retric wrote: post #134
pydry wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what the media has been screaming all these years. The reality is often that the 10th person has their role change, they retire off or (as in the case of the engraving industry), people end up buying more at a cheaper price.

Someone having their role change sounds fine, but it often means a skill and thus a longer term salary reset. Individually people may be better or worse off, but generally if you have 20+ years of experience doing something starting over is a major setback. Granted for very slow transitions it’s not as big of a deal.

The one situation where I remember this happening specifically (when the BBC made footage archiving digital), they planned the automation rollout to coincide with retiring off the old analog librarians.

Then they hired them back out of retirement because the project went badly wrong.

The latter part went awry (although I think they didn't mind too much) but the timing kind of worked out.

In a more vicious corporation they probably wouldn't have been so bothered about the timing of the rollout.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#145

Post by joelthelion »

I think it's far too early to conclude.

The ongoing "web 2.0" revolution is finally reaping the benefits of computers and networks, more than 50 years after they were invented. Paper processes are finally on the verge of being eliminated. Remote work is finally possible for many people.

Deep learning will have a transformative impact too, but these things take time. Let's talk again 10 years from now.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#146

Post by ovi256 »

pg-gadfly wrote: post #127
lnsru wrote: post #124

I have very interesting process when taking vacation. Automation does not mean robots from movie “I Robot”, some software can do the job too. To take time off I must open shitty software, enter my vacation days, then print the sheet and sign it. My manager signs it too. Then I bring it to secretary, she signs too, confirms the date in shitty software. Secretary sends paper form to the HR lady, she checks, if it’s ok…

All things automation. Really a chainsaw is automation, and so is a compressor. Automation is a pen. They all remove work and increase efficiency. There are lots of examples which don't really count though, such as self-checkout, which have exactly the same amount of work left, only who works it is a different person.

A chainsaw, compressor or pen are examples of mechanisation, not automation. They replace part of the human effort needed for a job, making the remaining human effort even more valuable.

Automation fully replaces human work for a given job. It's a difference in kind.

However, automation may replace only some jobs in a value chain, making the remaining ones even more productive and valuable.

A fully automated value chain is a difference in kind again.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#147

Post by eeZah7Ux »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #4
hirundo wrote: post #3

The horrors of the automation revolution have been on our collective mind for a long time. In the '70s this was one of my dad's favorite jokes: "It's terrible, my father lost the job he had for decades. He was replaced by a clever mechanical gizmo just six inches long. And then my mom got one." It plays on the fear of being emasculated by technology. Maybe that leads us to exaggerate the threat.

The fear is very real, not about emasculation, but a loss of identity in a society where "you are your job". I have seen this first hand in both people who weren't "essential" during COVID shutdowns (to their horror), and people who were deemed "essential" but it was, in their words, "bullshit". Automation is rapidly accelerating into the wall that is identity beliefs at scale, and there is evidence that these belief…

> loss of identity in a society where "you are your job"

In a society where "you are your job" you already have huge problems even if there is full employment.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#148

Post by Genmutant »

lnsru wrote: post #124

I have very interesting process when taking vacation. Automation does not mean robots from movie “I Robot”, some software can do the job too. To take time off I must open shitty software, enter my vacation days, then print the sheet and sign it. My manager signs it too. Then I bring it to secretary, she signs too, confirms the date in shitty software. Secretary sends paper form to the HR lady, she checks, if it’s ok…

All of that is automated at my company using SAP. Could be a nicer interface, but at least everything is online in the portal.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#149

Post by eeZah7Ux »

DangitBobby wrote: post #141
nine_k wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"You are not your job" is one thing I keep teaching all my junior colleagues. Your work is not your identity, and should not be seriously attached to your ego. This helps very much at code review and performance review times.

I spend more time doing my job than almost anything else. Sleeping is the only thing I spend more time doing. It might be healthier if I can avoid attaching so much importance and part of my identity to it, but I don't know how that's possible for me. Not only does it dominate my time, but it determines how much money I have for what I need and want and therefor what class of society I fit into and how difficult my l…

> Zen doublethink

facepalm

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#150

Post by piva00 »

nednar wrote: post #104
tuatoru wrote: post #69

An independent line of evidence looks at the formation of new occupations over time. If automation were taking over jobs, or jobs were being refactored because some tasks are automated, then we'd expect to see new job titles appearing in employment advertising and classifications such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics's. This does happen, as it has happened since the start of the Industrial Revolution. "Social Media…

Also let's not forget that automation still means someone needs to write some code, which needs to be written, maintained, updated, synced with other projects etc. The act itself creates new jobs already. For instance: In IT we also have this. Dev is the typical product development team, Ops is the team that takes care of keeping the lights on. Now with all the automation we have a new job called Devops which is some…

It creates new job opportunities for those that can train for them. The open questions are always: will automation create enough, higher-skilled and better paying jobs than the ones it will substitute? How does a society re-train the newly jobless to perform more productive tasks that require higher/different skills?

Of course that given enough time the labour market will adapt and correct itself, the issue is what happens in the meanwhile with real people, with real lives. The numbers eventually balance out, real lives suffer.

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