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No Recent Automation Revolution

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Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#121

Post by Retric »

buboard wrote: post #113
dgudkov wrote: post #110

Automation happens not where many expect it (including the media). It is frequently expected that automation will come as replacement for humans, while it actually is coming in the form of better tooling and assistance to humans. This theoretically should be reflected in work productivity, not in employment numbers.

when people talk of automation they mean replacement, not just better tools, for that has been happening since the beginning of time

When 9 people can do the work of 10, the 10th person often finds themselves out of a job. It’s little different if your job type completely disappears or if the economy only needs half as many people doing your job, either way many people need a new type of job.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#122

Post by josephjrobison »

There will always be competition, innovation, and new markets. New needs will arise in consumers, driving new product and service needs. We may automate more low-level legal tasks, but more money will be spent on massages, or therapy, or art. It's unlikely there will be mass automation any time soon.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#123

Post by Cthulhu_ »

irjustin wrote: post #22

Is it just me or does it feel like this timeframe was too short? Personally, I expect the largest disruptor of jobs to come from autonomous driving, but we're still 5-10+ years from seeing that hitting the ground. As far as today is concerned, I largely agree. ETFs BOTZ and ROBO have increased, but not in such a way that would suggest huge automation revolution.

In the meantime, the disruptor for driving jobs has been the race to the bottom; services like Uber, Lyft, etc popping up, decimating the taxi industry by having their not-employees compete with each other for work, driving the prices down while they laugh all the way to the bank - they get their cut anyway.

While those jobs haven't been automated away as such, they are being priced away.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#124

Post by lnsru »

I have very interesting process when taking vacation. Automation does not mean robots from movie “I Robot”, some software can do the job too.

To take time off I must open shitty software, enter my vacation days, then print the sheet and sign it. My manager signs it too. Then I bring it to secretary, she signs too, confirms the date in shitty software. Secretary sends paper form to the HR lady, she checks, if it’s ok and forwards my sheet to accounting lady. I see here a huge potential for automation, throwing at least 1st secretary and HR lady out of the process. This ancient process is happening in Germany, but automation will come sooner or later even here.

Edit: typos

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#125

Post by raxxorrax »

devonkim wrote: post #66

I’ve been having trouble reconcilling compelling evidence for and against automation based job loss / wage suppression, and usually the arguments against them look at super high level macroeconomic numbers (see: Pail Krugman’s analysis on productivity dropping for some recent years) while most people in support of the automation argument will go directly on the ground to places where auto manufacturers have had stron…

We build quite the "contraception" for circuit board mounting anything not compatible with reflow soldering. It mostly works but the women that do it usually are just way faster and less error prone.

We have quite the high wage standard and even then the device is mostly used to show off.

Real automation is probably needed in bureaucratic workflows even if we usually think about manufacturing. There are probably advantages and disadvantages here as well.

Since order situation is great at my current company (strangely the covid-quarter was particularly good), we have significantly expanded workforce in production.

I doubt that unions really drove automation in my country though. Price plays a role but also technological feasibility.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#126

Post by pydry »

Retric wrote: post #121
buboard wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when people talk of automation they mean replacement, not just better tools, for that has been happening since the beginning of time

When 9 people can do the work of 10, the 10th person often finds themselves out of a job. It’s little different if your job type completely disappears or if the economy only needs half as many people doing your job, either way many people need a new type of job.

That's what the media has been screaming all these years. The reality is often that the 10th person has their role change, they retire off or (as in the case of the engraving industry), people end up buying more at a cheaper price.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#127

Post by pg-gadfly »

lnsru wrote: post #124

I have very interesting process when taking vacation. Automation does not mean robots from movie “I Robot”, some software can do the job too. To take time off I must open shitty software, enter my vacation days, then print the sheet and sign it. My manager signs it too. Then I bring it to secretary, she signs too, confirms the date in shitty software. Secretary sends paper form to the HR lady, she checks, if it’s ok…

All things automation. Really a chainsaw is automation, and so is a compressor. Automation is a pen. They all remove work and increase efficiency.

There are lots of examples which don't really count though, such as self-checkout, which have exactly the same amount of work left, only who works it is a different person.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#128

Post by pg-gadfly »

dgudkov wrote: post #110

Automation happens not where many expect it (including the media). It is frequently expected that automation will come as replacement for humans, while it actually is coming in the form of better tooling and assistance to humans. This theoretically should be reflected in work productivity, not in employment numbers.

It should be noted that as efficiency increases, the company can compete and lower prices, meaning people don't _have to_ go to work as much to achieve the same level of living.

Provided there is competition

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#129

Post by pg-gadfly »

josephjrobison wrote: post #122

There will always be competition, innovation, and new markets. New needs will arise in consumers, driving new product and service needs. We may automate more low-level legal tasks, but more money will be spent on massages, or therapy, or art. It's unlikely there will be mass automation any time soon.

In fact automation often goes top-down, reeucing complexity of difficult jobs and allowing lower-skilled workers to deal with the rest that isn't yet profitable to change.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#130

Post by bildung »

totetsu wrote: post #116
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fear is very real, not about emasculation, but a loss of identity in a society where "you are your job". I have seen this first hand in both people who weren't "essential" during COVID shutdowns (to their horror), and people who were deemed "essential" but it was, in their words, "bullshit". Automation is rapidly accelerating into the wall that is identity beliefs at scale, and there is evidence that these belief…

Doesn't the often given argument agains UBI that, 'work is important for dignity' have its roots in Christian ethics?

I's say work being part of people's identity is much older than Christianity.
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