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No Recent Automation Revolution

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Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#11

Post by agumonkey »

hirundo wrote: post #3

The horrors of the automation revolution have been on our collective mind for a long time. In the '70s this was one of my dad's favorite jokes: "It's terrible, my father lost the job he had for decades. He was replaced by a clever mechanical gizmo just six inches long. And then my mom got one." It plays on the fear of being emasculated by technology. Maybe that leads us to exaggerate the threat.

That's shallow (funny, but shallow).

It's about stability. You carved a nice spot where you found joy and financial ... well .. stability. And now your life might go to the toilet. There's no guarantee that your next job will be

1. Fulfilling in itself

2. Provide the same income

3. Provide the same secondary benefits (colleagues, hours, boss, etc)

And.. automation is not even a guarantee that what your were producing is gonna improve (lots of chances it may but it can go the other way too: cheap commoditization)

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#12

Post by JumpCrisscross »

cancerSpreads wrote: post #8

This article comes too soon. How long have we been able to use millions of entries to machine learn? I'm still limited by processing speed. I imagine between math improvements, electrical engineering, computer science improvements/discoveries, and more we can automate jobs that require thinking or fine motor movements.

> This article comes too soon

Most estimates a decade ago forecasted massive automation-caused job losses by 2020.

> How long have we been able to use millions of entries to machine learn?

How long did mechanical looms need to show they wouldn't become sentient?

> I imagine

I do to. But based on current technology, we have no idea how to achieve these goals. We can't even model how or when we might do so. This implies a deep lack of meta knowledge.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#13

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Zaskoda wrote: post #10

Due to the Covid-19 lock down, my company was forced to accelerate our automation program. We did in months what we had originally planned to do in years. As we are able to open our operations center further, it's clear that we'll be providing fewer jobs than we did before. At least some part of that is the result of automation. I can't help but think this same pattern is playing out at other companies right now.

> Due to the Covid-19 lock down, my company was forced to accelerate our automation program

This sounds like the centre of the distribution catching up to the frontier moreso than the frontier advancing.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#14

Post by d3nj4l »

I thought about this article in context of the recently reposted piece "There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence" [1]. While it may be true that we haven't been able to automate new kinds of jobs, maybe we are just moments away from having an AGI that would make that kind of automation easy. That would contradict this article's claim that the narrative around an incoming automation revolution is bullshit. Just as likely, though, is that we actually are decades out from AGI and that kind of automation.

[1]: Link to the piece: https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/, recent HN Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23401328

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#15

Post by agumonkey »

Swizec wrote: post #6
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fear is very real, not about emasculation, but a loss of identity in a society where "you are your job". I have seen this first hand in both people who weren't "essential" during COVID shutdowns (to their horror), and people who were deemed "essential" but it was, in their words, "bullshit". Automation is rapidly accelerating into the wall that is identity beliefs at scale, and there is evidence that these belief…

> The revolution won't be the automation. It'll be in us accepting that the job wasn't who we were/are and it's okay to let it go This is perhaps the only thing socialism got right. At least the flavor we had in Yugoslavia and the remnants it left on the psyche of my parent's generation. You do your job, then you go home and live your actual life. The job exists as a way to "pay your dues" in society, but it isn't yo…

Super interesting. I believe we have a kind of reflex to also find part of 'us' in our role in society. And that it's not just an american culture bug.

Striking a balance between the two is subtle I suppose.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#16

Post by JumpCrisscross »

d3nj4l wrote: post #14

I thought about this article in context of the recently reposted piece "There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence" [1]. While it may be true that we haven't been able to automate new kinds of jobs, maybe we are just moments away from having an AGI that would make that kind of automation easy. That would contradict this article's claim that the narrative around an incoming automation revolution is bull…

> maybe we are just moments away from having an AGI that would make that kind of automation easy

What evidence do we have for being closer to AGI today than we were twenty years ago?

My point isn't that AGI is useless. But it's currently an article of faith. Faith is fine. Faith is essential. But isn't a good way to make huge allocations of resources.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#17

Post by lotsofpulp »

agumonkey wrote: post #11
hirundo wrote: post #3

The horrors of the automation revolution have been on our collective mind for a long time. In the '70s this was one of my dad's favorite jokes: "It's terrible, my father lost the job he had for decades. He was replaced by a clever mechanical gizmo just six inches long. And then my mom got one." It plays on the fear of being emasculated by technology. Maybe that leads us to exaggerate the threat.

That's shallow (funny, but shallow). It's about stability. You carved a nice spot where you found joy and financial ... well .. stability. And now your life might go to the toilet. There's no guarantee that your next job will be 1. Fulfilling in itself 2. Provide the same income 3. Provide the same secondary benefits (colleagues, hours, boss, etc) And.. automation is not even a guarantee that what your were producing…

Yes, all the unemployment/stock market value/income statistics all leave out the most important metric - the feeling of security, or insecurity I should say. Volatility is high, people can see it and feel it, and it shapes their decisions.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#18

Post by _AzMoo »

d3nj4l wrote: post #9
jariel wrote: post #2

Star Wars used painstakingly crafted models and photography effects to produce the film. Now, people using modern tools can do much more, with considerably less work. The 'jobs' analysis wouldn't necessarily reveal that. Taking inventory in a retail store used to be a paper and pencil mass bureaucracy - it's now streamlined. We don't stand at the line anymore to withdraw or deposit money. Secretaries don't type memos…

I understand your point, but that doesn't seem to be what the article talks about. From the linked article: > Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that for many years the media has been almost screaming that we entering a big automation revolution , with huge associated job losses, due to new AI tech, especially deep learning. Emphasis mine. Their point doesn't seem to be that automation isn't happening,…

I think a lot of people that are in the AI/Tech space are probably a bit detached from the realities of non-tech businesses. While you talk of "new tech" being AI and deep-learning, I'm still in the process of implementing barcoding systems in warehouses. I think the vast majority of businesses just aren't ready to move into the data-driven AI space that you call new tech. They're 20 years behind it.

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#19

Post by jsmith12673 »

Economics noob here: the paper concludes that past automation is predicted by 2 key factors: pay and employment. What does that mean exactly?

Are they saying that higher a job pays, the more likely it is to get automated? Or the other way around?

Also what does 'employment' refer to exactly? Is measuring how well the demand for labour is being met in a certain job?

Re: No Recent Automation Revolution

#20

Post by d3nj4l »

agumonkey wrote: post #11
hirundo wrote: post #3

The horrors of the automation revolution have been on our collective mind for a long time. In the '70s this was one of my dad's favorite jokes: "It's terrible, my father lost the job he had for decades. He was replaced by a clever mechanical gizmo just six inches long. And then my mom got one." It plays on the fear of being emasculated by technology. Maybe that leads us to exaggerate the threat.

That's shallow (funny, but shallow). It's about stability. You carved a nice spot where you found joy and financial ... well .. stability. And now your life might go to the toilet. There's no guarantee that your next job will be 1. Fulfilling in itself 2. Provide the same income 3. Provide the same secondary benefits (colleagues, hours, boss, etc) And.. automation is not even a guarantee that what your were producing…

> There's no guarantee that your next job will be

> 1. Fulfilling in itself

> 2. Provide the same income

>3. Provide the same secondary benefits (colleagues, hours, boss, etc)

Given how the job market is trending in favour of uber/postmates-style gig work (for people who aren't working in specific skilled trades) , I'd say it is guaranteed to be worse in all three aspects.

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