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Tribalism comes for pandemic science

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Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#91

Post by erichocean »

albybisy wrote: post #14
salmon30salmon wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't want to get into a game of who has been most wrong, because that will automatically trigger people to go back to their camps and hunker down. I agree that the "isolate the vulnerable, continue with life otherwise" is most likely the best outcome. The fact that this idea is attributed to the right is going to mean it is DOA, for the most part.

i would like to know how to "isolate the vulnerable"...?! We send to an island? we weld inside home? We should talk only if we have a realizable plan and not a "dream/idealistinc" plan.

> i would like to know how to "isolate the vulnerable"...?!

We could start by NOT sending people with confirmed COVID-19 infections to live with them.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#92

Post by vondur »

maemilius wrote: post #80
salmon30salmon wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well we were able to somewhat effectively isolate the entire country, so I would say have modified stay-home orders that target those who are most vulnerable. That, in addition to common sense acts like hand washing, isolating the sick etc. would go a long way to flatten the curve enough to not overwhelm the hospitals, which after-all was the original goal.

That raises the question of how to identify the sick. SARS-CoV-2 infections can be transmissible before the infected shows any symptoms, if they present at all. Personally, I don't feel that there are many population centers in the US that are prepared to do the kind of testing that seems like would be needed to properly identify the sick.

Apparently this is not really the case any longer: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-pat...

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#93

Post by umvi »

Press2forEN wrote: post #73
salmon30salmon wrote: post #2

This is so very disheartening. I will speak only for the United States, as I am not familiar enough with other countries to comment. Not only is this impacting nearly every single person in the country, it is ruining the financial situation of over 40m people, primarily concentrated within the most financially vulnerable. This is because leaders on the left and right have refused to respond to new data, and are worki…

The US will not resume its position as a functioning democracy until both sides reconcile their differences. But when those differences are on the opposite sides of the political spectrum, perhaps we should be considering other options. At this point, with COVID and the riots, its a matter of life and death.

> perhaps we should be considering other options.

You mean splitting into 2 countries (blue USA and red USA)? Then whichever country fares worse economically will find a way to blame the more prosperous one, and it could mean war.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#94

Post by tunesmith »

JPKab wrote: post #24

Question: Has anyone here changed their mind about COVID19 in a major way as the data has become more complete? Just wondering. I have sensed in myself tribalistic tendencies of not changing my mind when the data changes. I'm trying hard to look at myself and recognize it and experiment with different thoughts. I find myself bouncing between thinking we have overreacted to then thinking that my perception of an overr…

I was less worried about it at the beginning - I think I had a decent understanding of how fatal it was, but underestimated how contagious it was.

I think I came around to a mental model of how to react fairly early on, though. The basic model was stay at home until either a vaccine arrives or until we have anti-viral treatments that reduce severity and improve outcomes. Neither has happened, so I'm in the same boat.

It's great - great - that the lockdown has reduced occurrences of it so much. And I recognize the argument that if we've tamped down on it enough, that it's safer to go out there. But... an x% less likelihood of catching it doesn't mean it will be x% less severe when you do catch it. I think that a lot of non-technical people are confused on that point.

And finally, even if we did have really good contact-tracing... that doesn't help you, it only helps your friends. There are still those two days when people are contagious without being symptomatic. That's just still reality, I don't see a way around that. A healthy people can die from interacting with a seemingly healthy person.

Besides, what happened to contact tracing anyway? I thought we were going to have this snazzy contact-tracing tech on our phones and watches by now, courtesy of Apple and Google. I'm sure our contact-tracing is still lousy overall. It's great we have more tests, but we're not at the point where we would have been able to stop February in its tracks.

So overall... yeah, I've changed my minds in ways, like recognizing that the probabilities are more on my side than they used to be, so I feel a little safer if I have to go to the doctor/dentist for non-COVID reasons. But other than that, it's still a super-contagious virus that has a decent chance of really screwing up your life even if you aren't 80+, so... I'm still in the "stay at home until treatment/virus improves" camp.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#95

Post by growlist »

m0zg wrote: post #71
emteycz wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Communism is known for economically collapsing on itself, that's not very efficient or productive.

Yes. But it takes decades for it to do so, and in the initial stages it can appear to be quite effective. And as any communist will tell you, "it's not really communism" if it collapses on itself, killing tens of millions of people in the process.

We need a Russian to comment with some examples of the exceedingly black humour that developed under communism.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#96

Post by umvi »

salmon30salmon wrote: post #6
rootusrootus wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we could just convince the hoaxers that wearing masks in public is not emasculating, and convince the doomers that we need to flatten the curve rather than attempt to completely contain the virus, we could go back to something bordering on normal life pretty quickly while we waited for vaccines to come along and kill off the virus altogether. And then we would be prepared to react to the next pandemic, too.

Exactly. We need some humility in people. It is okay to admit that this is (thankfully!) not as bad as we thought, but it is still bad. It will still kill a lot of people. We need to take it seriously, but not as seriously as we feared. The doomers need to have the humility to admit that, and the hoaxers need to have the humility to admit that it is worse than the seasonal flu. Again, I fear people don't realize that…

> and the hoaxers need to have the humility to admit that it is worse than the seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu happens every year. Novel virus pandemics happen once per century. Seasonal flu is much more deadly, just spread out over longer timeline. And estimated covid mortality rate for my age group falls every week. I'm still not convinced it's measurably worse than the flu (for my age group).

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#97

Post by _opc6 »

dekhn wrote: post #43
salmon30salmon wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't want to get into a game of who has been most wrong, because that will automatically trigger people to go back to their camps and hunker down. I agree that the "isolate the vulnerable, continue with life otherwise" is most likely the best outcome. The fact that this idea is attributed to the right is going to mean it is DOA, for the most part.

The main problem youi'll have with that is that many people assume that the value of a human life is infinite and we must expend all resources possible to save individuals. Neither of those makes for good economics, so folks who include economics and balanced risk into their equations often conflict with folks who want to take the "safest possible action with respect to human life".

The safest possible solution would be for the super wealthy pay to keep the population fed and housed while we wait for a vaccine or improved treatments. Otherwise, the virus will continue to propagate, the poor will have to risk their lives and the virus will inevitably reach the rich and their families in a later wave anyway as was the case with the 1918 flu.

Addendum: I posted this fully understanding how unpopular it would be with this crowd. If we ever get hit with a a more fatal and contagious virus this may be our only way of preserving life. And as things stand with our industrial meat processes I suspect we will have more viruses to contend with.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#98

Post by umvi »

dekhn wrote: post #40

There are times I'm glad I left health science/biology/medicine as a field and it's interesting to watch people slowly realize just how badly structured the entire human health field is organized (from academic research to research hospitals to profit hospitals to world health organizations) and how all the incentives are messed up. The closer you get in biology to human health, the more ego, tribalism, and assholery…

Dumb question, but what's a "shark" in this context?

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#99

Post by tunesmith »

JPKab wrote: post #78
matthewdgreen wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know what you mean by “change your mind”. I’ve come to understand that it is much less infectious outdoors, that it is more responsive to moderate social distancing than we though initially (possibly due to super spreading?) and that masks appear to work well. This has made me more relaxed about many activities. I continue to believe that it’s an extremely infectious RNA virus that will spread exponentially i…

Specifically, I was asking if you had informed opinions on the virus that are now significantly different than the informed opinions you hold now?

Echoing GP - the additional data on how contagious it appears it isn't in circumstances of brief, well-ventilated contact, helps me feel safer outdoors. Over the last two weeks, we've had or visited two different outdoor get-togethers with friends, sitting and chatting in the lawn 6-10 years apart, and feeling like it was no big deal to step forward briefly to (for instance) hold out a dish of cupcakes for your friend to grab one.

I definitely wouldn't have felt comfortable with that a month ago.

And I still don't want to do that more than once a week or so.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#100

Post by bsder »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #7
salmon30salmon wrote: post #2

This is so very disheartening. I will speak only for the United States, as I am not familiar enough with other countries to comment. Not only is this impacting nearly every single person in the country, it is ruining the financial situation of over 40m people, primarily concentrated within the most financially vulnerable. This is because leaders on the left and right have refused to respond to new data, and are worki…

In fairness, the right has been pretty consistent about tailoring the response according to risk—i.e., those who are at risk should isolate and everyone else should resume work. They happened to be right in this regard. The left has also made exceptions in their “lockdown everything” policy, specifically with regard to their own protests (and the response of pandemic experts is a particularly interesting case study o…

The US never went into an actual lockdown in most places.

"Lockdown" is New York where R0 is 0.75. "Lockdown" is not California or Texas where R0 basically sits at 1.0.

R0 of 0.75 after the last 3 months would basically mean Covid cases in the single digits basically everywhere in the US. But, no, we can't actually get people's attention before we start piling body bags in the streets.

The people in the US who are "Open all the things!" are also the "I'll be damned if I'm wearing a mask." Ummm.

You can argue about the finer points all you want, but when you can't get people to do the basics, you're sunk.

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