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America is giving up on the pandemic?

theatlantic.com

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Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#941
post #809
post #758

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re right. I don’t understand the general tendency of assuming malice when a combination of uncertainty about the virus, poor supply chains, and not-very-good underlying data would do just as well. It’s also unclear what “masks” meant in the initial phases. An N95 respirator? A surgical mask? A homemade cloth mask? Each of these has different uses and effects. I seriously doubt most people knew the differe…

I'd be much more OK with this explanation about how complicated it is and how hard it is to get it right if on any disagreement with the same experts one wouldn't get yelled at as "science denier" and accused in willing to murder millions of people by his stupidity. I mean I get it, there's a complex question whether masks help (depends on which mask, in which circumstance, how long is the contact, how skilled you ar…

I completely agree that the rhetoric around “Science!” has gotten increasingly more toxic. I say this as a trained scientist, we really do at bad job of communicating. This is made worse by a media and a general public that isn’t used to thinking in scientific terms.

By that I mean we spend so much time as scientists living with and making decisions about which course of action to take in the context of uncertain data. Other fields obviously do too, but for a bench scientist, every day is is a constant tradeoff on which data you buy, what experiments will you run to confirm/exclude it, and what’s the downside of that decision. The best rarely speak in full certainty, they talk about probabilities.

Contrast to public messaging or journalism which is, “do this, not that.” This has led to people holding “science” as an identity, a talisman of righteousness. That’s not how science works, but people want to feel better by judging people so here we are.

I personally would have preferred a short, coherent statement on what we know for sure and what we don’t, how confident we are about the same, and to treat people as adults.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#942
post #905

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are assuming that people’s behaviors are identical when wearing and not wearing masks. This is what we do not know (still). There are plenty of results in life science far more counterintuitive than the hypothesis, “people are less strict about social distancing when wearing masks.”

There are countries - including in the EU - which made masks mandatory or highly recommended them. If "we" do not know how people behave when wearing masks, we could simply ask them. Although we don't strictly need to ask them, since the head of the Chinese CDC said more than a month ago that using masks is essential and that he doesn't understand why Europe doesn't do it. KCDC specialists said much of the same thing…

I think on balance you’re right masks probably don’t hurt, and this is a change from my initial views. I don’t think they’re quite as magical as people seem to think. For example if you wear glasses you’ll notice how easy it is to have them fog up with a mask that doesn’t fit well. Those are your droplets shooting vertically into the air. We don’t know how reused masks perform either esp. when they get dirty. Still, probably helps overall.

Where it does cause harm is early on if everyone gets N95s and the docs can’t get enough (which absolutely happened) then that actually kills more people (docs, nurses, and the people they would have saved).

The right message in retrospect should have been, “don’t go buy masks, save those for people who need the highest performance, but wear a cloth mask when indoors. Wash it frequently.” We screwed up, but it’s not malice and it is complicated.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#943
post #939

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's a metaphor like they want to destroy systematic racism or prison industrial complex? But I haven't seen those posts. Anything public you wanna share?

>I think that's a metaphor Maybe we could consider it purely metaphorical, if there hadn't been a rash of arsons across the US in recent weeks.

I mean... I'm was looking up stuff and it seems the arsons have been up since March at least in Vancouver.

https://www.straight.com/news/vancouver-police-warn-of-sharp...

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#944

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparing apples to apples: Average daily deaths in US caused by heart disease: 1800 Average daily deaths in US caused by cancer: 1600 Average daily deaths in US caused by corona virus: 1000 https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death Comparing oranges to oranges: Total deaths in US caused by homicide (2019): 19510 Total deaths in US caused by police (2019): 1112 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicid…

Comparing pears to pears: Number of adults with diagnosed heart disease: 30.3 million [1] People in the United States infected with corona virus: 1.9 million [2] [1] https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/NHIS/SHS/2018... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-c...

What's the pear count for number of police arrests/interactions a year?

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#945
post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Especially when his opinions are factually unfounded and result the gross misuse of public resources. Factually unfounded? It is pretty clear that opportunists and provacateurs have used the legitimate protests as a shield for their illegal activities. Protection of property and safety of citizens is "gross misuse of public resources"? Do you think the people living above the stores being vandalized and lit on fire…

You're wrong on every single point. Yes, opportunists took advantage, but the right-wing media echoed by top Republicans is the protest were terroristic at their core and there was zero acknowledgement of the legitimate concerns of the vast majority of demonstrators. Looting got tons of coverage. It was plastered all over cable news and got a heavy response from local governments. The misuse of public resources I refer is the attacks on protestors who were not looting. Most egregiously in Washington DC acting on orders from the White House.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#946
post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't be obtuse. Of course all factors were considered. Keeping people out of offices and shops is not a public health risk. People becoming impoverished and losing health insurance is. That's why the federal government spent $2T protecting people's financial health to offset the damage. The bigger question is why health care access is tied to employment, but there's no way the current regime would consider dealing w…

> Of course all factors were considered. That's not entirely accurate. Even Faucci answered, in response to Rand Paul, he was a virologist. Not a economist, etc. There's been little public acknowledgement of increases in suicides, illness from delayed med treatments, economic fall out affecting deaths, etc.

Fauci doesn't set policy. The CDC doesn't set policy. Even the White House has limited authority. Policy was a mishmash set by governors and mayors with or without support from DC and based on recommendations from multiple health, public safety and economic advisors.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#947
post #568
post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can I see these calculations please?

Black people in America have a measurably lower life expectancy than white people [1]. For people born in 2015, it's down to about 5%, but as recently as 1970, it was over 10%. That's a lot of years of life being cut short. (There are well-known social causes for this which are direct consequences of racism, like access to quality health care, housing, education, credit, etc.) COVID-19 deaths aren't taking nearly tha…

I sympathize with a lot of these problems, but I wonder if the police issue getting all the attention is going to prevent these other issues from getting serious attention. :|

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#948

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rumors of its death have been greatly exaggerated. There seems to be a trend to paint people as imbeciles who can't tie their own shoelaces without somebody standing over them, and then on investigation it turns out not to be true. There was a story a while back about a couple who drank fish tank cleaner (containing chloroquine) after Trump touted chloroquine against the coronavirus. Come to find out the couple were…

Wait, you read a NY Post article with rumors about a married couple having marriage difficulties, and you believe you've uncovered the "whole story" that other people are somehow blind to but you can see?

Do you want the same story from a dozen different sources? This is actually a good example of the differences between partisan sources. The New York Post article says this:

> Mesa City police declined to comment on the investigation but told the paper that the probe was “normal protocol” for non-natural deaths and noted that the case has not been ruled a homicide “at this time.”

In left-leaning publications they omit "at this time" and make that the headline.

But the interesting thing about the story isn't the police determination. That hasn't been made yet, so it tells us nothing, and anyway the police would have to prove it beyond a reasonable doubt. The whole point is using that excuse creates a lot of reasonable doubt even if it was completely intentional.

The value of the story is that it gives us some new evidence. The narrative that somebody recklessly drank fish tank cleaner after a Trump recommendation loses credibility when you learn that the person was anti-Trump and thereby not inclined to unthinkingly believe whatever he says, up to and including drinking something with a label on it that says poison. Meanwhile a plausible alternative explanation exists.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#949

Total deaths in US caused by police. (2019, full year): 1112 [1] Total deaths in US caused by coronavirus (last Friday, one day): 975 [2] [1] https://www.theroot.com/here-s-how-many-people-police-killed... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Comparing apples to apples: Average daily deaths in US caused by heart disease: 1800 Average daily deaths in US caused by cancer: 1600 Average daily deaths in US caused by corona virus: 1000 https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death Comparing oranges to oranges: Total deaths in US caused by homicide (2019): 19510 Total deaths in US caused by police (2019): 1112 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicid…

Comparing oranges to tangerines:

– Total population of US (2019): 329 million [1]

– Total population of UK (2019): 68 million [1]

– Total deaths in US caused by police (2019): 1112

– Total deaths in UK caused by police (2019): 3 [2]

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_populatio...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_killings_by_law_enforc...

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#950

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And far more harm than just one year's worth. We've seen 400 years of structural anti-black racism here, with no end in sight. The USA has had more than 240 years to fix that. If people are finding the timing of the current protest inconvenient, well, they've had their whole lives to fix the problem. They shouldn't blame the protesters for their own lack of action. I'll note that in 1964, people were calling civil ri…

I'm not sure how much "structural" racism actually exists in the US at this point. There are no doubt pockets and they should be rooted out. Personal racism exists and will probably never go away. It would be nice if it did. I do think people get profiled and hassled because other people who look like that have done XXX and cops see a possible pattern. This isn't fair to innocent people at all but I suspect this has…

I understand you have your personal suspicions. I used to have similar thoughts. But please understand a) this is a well-studied topic, and b) a major component of America's endemic racism is white minimization, deflection, and denial, something made possible by pervasive white ignorance.

As an example, you might read Loewen's "Sundown Towns". He covers the Nadir, the post-reconstruction period that includes events like the Tulsa Massacre. He demonstrates pretty convincingly that white-led ethnic cleansing was widespread across the US. Through a variety of historical records, including extensive use of census data, he demonstrates that in town after town, all across the country, white people violently drove out any black people and then used violence to keep them out. And then they quietly erased that history, despite keeping otherwise extensive historical records.

Was any of this covered in my high school or college education? No. That's even though it demonstrably took place in towns all around where I grew up. That a lot of suburban growth was driven by racism. That wealth distribution was driven by racism. That made it easy for me to think that racism was this thing that happened long ago or far away. When instead I grew up soaking in its structural effects.

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