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In Defense of Bad Ideas

surjan.substack.com

11–20 of 54 posts

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#11
post #7

Would have loved to read a longer writeup exploring that premise (which I agree with). The difference between Bad ideas and Good ideas, is determined by the outcome. Something that seems bad but ends up working (milliondollarhomepage, pet-rock, etc.) ends up being brilliant, in the eyes of the public.

I would argue that Walter Benjamin's "History is written by the winners" (rephrased) is someone a longer write-up of the same premise, albeit not in a technical area.

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#12

Bad ideas are magical when they come in the form of long call options (bounded cost, unlimited upside). Bad ideas destroy companies/nations/civilizations when they come in the form of short put options (bounded benefit, unlimited downside).

> long call options

> short put options

I tried to think of what a "short call option" or a "long put option" would be, and I don't think the concepts exist. Do they?

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#13

Bad ideas are magical when they come in the form of long call options (bounded cost, unlimited upside). Bad ideas destroy companies/nations/civilizations when they come in the form of short put options (bounded benefit, unlimited downside).

> long call options > short put options I tried to think of what a "short call option" or a "long put option" would be, and I don't think the concepts exist. Do they?

If you buy a call option, someone has to be on the other side of the contract. They are the short position.

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#14
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> long call options > short put options I tried to think of what a "short call option" or a "long put option" would be, and I don't think the concepts exist. Do they?

If you buy a call option, someone has to be on the other side of the contract. They are the short position.

Sure, but they don't have a call option. All they have is an obligation.

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#15
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they're still going at it. Partnered with Virgin to make further iterations of the Spaceship One concept under The Spaceship Company. They're shooting to do private spaceflights under the name Virgin Galactic.

Orbit though?

What about it?

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#16
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they're still going at it. Partnered with Virgin to make further iterations of the Spaceship One concept under The Spaceship Company. They're shooting to do private spaceflights under the name Virgin Galactic.

Orbit though?

Sub-orbital. Think getting the craft up to altitude of 100+ km, hang out for a few minutes, and descend back to Earth. SpaceShip One, the prototype inspiring the Virgin Galactic fleet, was capable of reaching speeds of 0.9 km/s. [1] Escape velocity to get into orbit from Earth's surface is 11.2 km/s. [2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceShipOne

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_velocity

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#17
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you buy a call option, someone has to be on the other side of the contract. They are the short position.

Sure, but they don't have a call option. All they have is an obligation.

Short just means they have a negative amount of that, in this case a negative amount of options.

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but they don't have a call option. All they have is an obligation.

Short just means they have a negative amount of that, in this case a negative amount of options.

No, short means your position is predicated on the idea that the future price of something will be lower than the current price.

Owning a positive number of put options makes you short the underlying stock, which is presumably why the comment upthread described put options as "short put options". Selling put options gives you a long position, not a short position.

I wanted to analyze this in terms of the original comment, in which "short put options" have limited upside and unlimited downside, but put options do not have unlimited downside for either the buyer or the seller. The buyer can't lose more than the price of the option, and the seller can't lose more than the strike price. Put options are a case of "limited upside, limited downside" from any perspective.

Call options are the ones with unlimited upside (for the buyer) and unlimited downside (for the seller).

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#19

Bad ideas are magical when they come in the form of long call options (bounded cost, unlimited upside). Bad ideas destroy companies/nations/civilizations when they come in the form of short put options (bounded benefit, unlimited downside).

> long call options > short put options I tried to think of what a "short call option" or a "long put option" would be, and I don't think the concepts exist. Do they?

Generally a “long call” would mean that you bought a call option. If you sell/write the contract, you’re short. Your position is in the derivative instrument itself, it's not cascaded onto the underlying.

I also know multi-layered derivatives such as options on options and options on futures exist (as I’ve written code for them), but I’m curious what they’re used for.

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Orbit though?

Sub-orbital. Think getting the craft up to altitude of 100+ km, hang out for a few minutes, and descend back to Earth. SpaceShip One, the prototype inspiring the Virgin Galactic fleet, was capable of reaching speeds of 0.9 km/s. [1] Escape velocity to get into orbit from Earth's surface is 11.2 km/s. [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceShipOne [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_velocity

Escape velocity is a velocity to escape gravitational field. Orbit velocity is a velocity to orbit a thing inside its gravitational field.

For example, ISS has orbit speed of about 7.7 km/s at 350 km above the ground. Orbit speed "at the surface" of Earth is about 8km/s, I believe.

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