Live data from Hacker News

America is giving up on the pandemic?

theatlantic.com

171–180 of 1001 posts

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#171
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fear it might be more pernicious than that. There’s reason to believe states are misreporting their numbers to hide what’s going on with it. But I think the media senses the protests and racism issues have to take up all the available oxygen, “or else”.

I think this is a lot of it, for better or worse. I feel like a lot of people are afraid to talk about anything but the protests lately, lest they be branded as not supporting the protests.

>I feel like a lot of people are afraid to talk about anything but the protests lately, lest they be branded as not supporting the protests.

That's exactly it. I've some friends who are on the whole rather apolitical, in fact I'd call them politically ignorant as it's not something they tend to invest any time into, but who either run relatively large social media pages as a side hustle or do so professionally on behalf of the company they work for.

From chatting to them over the last week or two, they've said they've been put in a place whereby they can't not post something in support of the protests in either case. The companies want to get info out to customers, however feel that if they post without the promo post first they'll be castigated for it. Those with influence pages want to retain engagement and are in the same position.

In essence, those actually supporting the protests have created an environment whereby they'll never be able to judge the true sentiment around their movement, as dissent or even public agnosticism toward it has been all but quashed. Something that, in my eyes at least, has dangerous potential.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People living in a certain form of hell aren't afraid of dying of corona... I personally would rather die of pneumonia than 20 or so bullets to the back from an agent of the state operating with a hair trigger and impunity. Do people really think MLK felt safe when he was protesting? He was brave, new assassination was likely, and still marched.

Yeah, but if all the proponents of BLM die to Covid-19, who is going to be there to keep up the fight afterward? This is all very short-term thinking. There are other ways to protest.

I think that is irrelevant to many of the protestors. Most know that black Ferguson, Missouri protestors started to mysteriously die weeks after the protests ended (suspect foul play), they know the state may target them for the rest of their lives, and many made peace with putting their life on the line for this cause -before- they walked into the streets.

>There are other ways to protest.

Feel free to share any protest ideas you have that keep them safe and achieve Civil Rights Act level reforms without requiring people in the streets making the powerful uncomfortable.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but that’s only one way to calculate it. Other ways might be to calculate based on number of encounters, or number of criminal acts, or to control for location, or control for income. Etc. I think it’s important to be really careful saying a given statistic, any statistic, says what we think it says.

Please bring one such alternative that effectively captures the impact on a per-capita basis. Otherwise, this is a false analogy, since the normalized measurement accomplishes precisely this.

It really doesn’t and I sense that you seem to be downplaying the whole concept that statistics can be interpreted in many different ways.

Edit: I can’t reply to your reply, I think it is a new hacker news feature that’s trying to slow down these back and forths. I listed several ways we could control the data, and I’m not proficient enough in statistics to do all that myself.

One talking point is: per police interaction, an unarmed non-Hispanic Caucasian person has a 4 in 10000 chance of being shot while an unarmed African American has a 3 in 10000 ... so the only huge person actually has a higher level of risk per interaction.

Again, this is not my area of expertise.

I’m not suggesting what all these numbers mean. I am suggesting that when you bring numbers, it’s only fair to discuss different ways to view the numbers.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#174

It's tragic watching this play out. 4chan's /pol/ amongst many other racists love it. They don't have to do anything while everything implodes. They see Covid-19 as a nothing burger, and health experts giving these protestors a pass vindicates their belief. But if Covid-19 is not a nothing burger, then these protests will end up with many black people and other minorities sick and possibly dead. People on the alt-rig…

In re: > They see Covid-19 as a nothing burger, and health experts giving these protestors a pass vindicates their belief. Four minutes later someone says just that: > by admitting there are exceptions, [public health experts] reveal that they were not being straight with us all along.

I never said I thought Covid-19 was a nothing-burger, and I have nothing to do with the right-wing online crazies.

Nevertheless it is clear that public health experts have not been straight with us. You don't need to be a right-wing loon to see that their open letter contradicts what they have been saying until now.

Why did you personally attack me and associate me with the 4chan nutters with no basis whatsoever?

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please bring one such alternative that effectively captures the impact on a per-capita basis. Otherwise, this is a false analogy, since the normalized measurement accomplishes precisely this.

It really doesn’t and I sense that you seem to be downplaying the whole concept that statistics can be interpreted in many different ways. Edit: I can’t reply to your reply, I think it is a new hacker news feature that’s trying to slow down these back and forths. I listed several ways we could control the data, and I’m not proficient enough in statistics to do all that myself. One talking point is: per police interac…

> It really doesn’t and I sense that you seem to be downplaying the whole concept that statistics can be interpreted in many different ways.

Statistics can be presented in any number of ways; data can be used to lie in any number of directions.

But if you're not going to come here with a counterproposal, you're only undermining the movement Black Americans have been struggling with for so long by stating obliquely that these numbers are a lie.

Edit per yours (sorry you've been hit by rate limits. I get the feeling):

> One talking point is: per police interaction, an unarmed non-Hispanic Caucasian person has a 4 in 10000 chance of being shot while an unarmed African American has a 3 in 10000 ... so the only huge person actually has a higher level of risk per interaction.

The unknown variable here is the number of police interactions by race and whether they were the initiator or the intended target (or suspect, if a crime had taken place). That's why it's normally just reduced to shootings by police.

If you have the details and the exact breakdowns, it'd be helpful. But the BJS doesn't seem to discriminate between whether someone initiated the contact or whether they're the target of law enforcement action.

-------

Also, thank you for engaging.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From your source, white/black people shot to death by cops in 2018 breaks down as 399/209. That's about 2x. Now if I take a look at: https://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/crime/ucr.asp?table_in=2&selY... And I focus on arrests made in situations such as incidents of weapons possession, aggravated assault, or the violent crime aggregate, I don't see much of a discrepancy versus that 2x. For example, for the violent crime agg…

I don't see the relevance. Can you help me understand how this is relevant to police shooting and killing 3x more Blacks than Whites per year?

They don’t. They shoot more caucasians per year by a significant margin.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#177
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assembly is valuable, but there's a certain misery that comes with self-isolating for two weeks living on canned beans, having many businesses shut down, and working so hard at this to protect the lives of your elderly parents or your asthmatic sibling... ... And then watching 10,000 people pack together downtown exercising their right to free assembly, and likely undoing all those months of progress.

It's not just misery, it feels fundamentally unjust. Basically some rule violations are deemed more equal than others, so why should I care anymore? If we're not "all in this together" why should I suffer?

>It's not just misery, it feels fundamentally unjust. Basically some rule violations are deemed more equal than others, so why should I care anymore?

Politicans politicize all that they can in order to use it as ammo against their opposition. The mainstream media creates and editorializes narratives in the name of garnering and sustaining attention and therefore advertising dollars.

If you're engaging with either, you have to approach it with skepticism, try to find balancing viewpoints, and make the best decisions for yourself, your family, etc. as a result.

Unfortunately, in the current case, healthcare professionals have allowed themselves to become tools of the above parties and have massively discredited themselves and their institutions in doing so. We're now even at a point where someone could rightfully be completely confused as to whether something as small as buying/wearing masks is a fruitful endeavour or a waste of effort, which is a dire state for us to be in.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the relevance. Can you help me understand how this is relevant to police shooting and killing 3x more Blacks than Whites per year?

They don’t. They shoot more caucasians per year by a significant margin.

> They don’t. They shoot more caucasians per year by a significant margin.

Not when normalized. See my parent comment.

Or, reposting:

    Ethnicity | EOY-19 killed | July-19 pop est | humans per 10m

    ------------------------------------------------------------
    
    White, non-hispanic | 370 |     198,256,671‬ |          ~18.7
    
    Black               | 235 |      43,984,096 |          ~53.5

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did you put the word justified in quotes?

Either the vitriol people received for protesting the lockdown, wanting to reopen their businesses and resume life - they were labelled essentially as murderers and #COVIDIOTS - was justified OR the mass protests, flouting of concern about the virus, etc. is justified. You cannot have both. So either those out and about without masks, or protesting the lockdown, etc. AND the current protests are justified as COVID is…

I think your perspective is a bit too rigid, and it's resulting in a false dichotomy.

Yes, obviously the novel coronavirus is still here, and it is still a huge concern. This doesn't mean that people who are fed up with generations of police brutality and have taken to the streets to pressure their local leaders to put an end to it are somehow being hypocrites. They are simply demonstrating that ending police brutality is a much more important issue, one they are willing to risk their own health for (not just from the virus but also from tear gas, rubber bullets, pepper sprays, LRADs and more).

At the end of the day, humans are complex and everyone's calculus is different. I have friends who want to protest but have decided not to because they are immuno-compromised. I also have friends who have gone to the protests, and have since been self-quarantining (including calling in sick if their employers have called people back to the office). I also know people, like you, who think protesters are being irresponsible since packed crowds will no doubt intensify the pandemic.

Instead of judging these groups, we should strive to understand where they are coming from and why they may have made those choices, based on sets of circumstances and experiences that will be unique for everyone.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#180
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2018 FBI homicide statistics: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-... 514 black-on-white homicides, 234 white-on-black homicides.

[flagged]

The thing is, normalizing against population figures goes both ways. Yes, in incidents of white-on-black or black-on-white homicide, for every 10 million white people in the US, ~26 were victimized whereas ~53 for every 10 million black people. But there are more than 4 times as many white people as black people in the country. It is of course a drastic simplification, but if we roughly say that the average black person interacts with 4 times as many white people as with other black people and the average white person interacts with 1/4 times as many black people as with other white people, then the fact that the average white person is only roughly half as likely to be the victim of a homicide by a black offender as a black person is likely to be the victim of a white offender does not seem to me to support your point.
Post reply on HN