Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds • Hacker News Board

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#61

Post by saltcured » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:20 PM UTC

api wrote: post #19

I am so nostalgic for the 1990s. I am a young Xer, almost an old millennial, kind of on the cusp. I've wondered if this is a cognitive artifact of my age in the 90s, teens to 20, but I have asked older and even a few younger people and many have also expressed nostalgia for that decade. Boomers and much older Xers often agree. My teens were rough anyway. It was not my personal best decade, but I would go back in a se…

I think you would have to look for additional sources or markers of your experience to explain this memory of yours. It is not just the decade nor your age at the time. In my recollection, cultural products like grunge and industrial music, or even the overall Gen-X slacker stereotype, did not come from a place of great optimism. They weren't ironic masks hiding a playful wink, they were sardonic expressions of angst and disappointment over a world that did not meet ideals.

For many, there was a palpable sense of hangover. That we were living in the ruins/wasteland of an already failing civilization, with very little control over the outcome for society nor for oneself. Much of the saccharine, optimistic content on TV could be seen another way, as almost delusional or perhaps as clumsy propaganda. It could only be enjoyed with a big dose of irony or an escapist suspension of disbelief.

I can only guess at all the factors which influence these different, parallel experiences of the time. Different regional cultures, different socio-economic backgrounds, difference in parent generation, differences in sibling/cohort ages, etc.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#62

Post by elhudy » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:26 PM UTC

qqqwerty wrote: post #58

elhudy wrote: post #2

I question whether these generational comparisons are using the right statistics. In the very least they don't seem to paint a complete picture. Maybe I am biased because I'm a very successful millennial. I have the world at my hands. Access to written knowledge from any point in the history of time. Tens of thousands of video games and movies available for under $10 and/or a small subscription price. I can learn the…

This is a fairly narrow view of the issue. For one, I think most people throughout history would refuse to trade places with previous generations, with maybe the main exception being those that were significantly impacted by war. And secondly, the article is focused on economic prospects of our generation, many of the ramifications of which will not play out for decades. Millennials are still relatively young. Being…

>This is a fairly narrow view of the issue.

Actually, I'm taking a broader view of the issue.

>article is focused on economic prospects of our generation, many of the ramifications of which will not play out for decades

My response is not focused on the economic ($$) future of millennials. In fact, I am not even in disagreement that millennials are disadvantaged economically particularly when looking at CoL and debt.

I am pointing out that the article eschews the extreme compounding increases in technological advancements that my generation is fortunate to experience. Is that agreeable? Or would you say that when comparing generational success and/or happiness we should only consider variables where millennials lag?

> The TP delivered to your house was done so by someone working a low paying gig work job. There is a good chance, that like you, they graduated with significant student load debt. How do you think they feel about their economic future?

The same person who delivers my TP probably gets their tp delivered as well. Even though they are a blue collar worker, likely with debt. Isn't that value worth consideration when comparing generational wealth? How is that being accounted for in the article? If it isn't being accounted for, then why not?

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#63

Post by elhudy » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

qqqwerty wrote: post #60

elhudy wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but my high salary doesn't enable any of the things I mentioned. I'm still capable of making observations about the world around me; my friends, family, who have low salaries have access to these things and are seemingly able to achieve happiness through them. I am NOT saying the article is wrong by any means, only that there are other considerations as well, which are always ignored in generational comparisons…

I think you have a strong disconnect with how impactful your high salary is on your quality of life. If someone has significant student loans and is driving for uber to make a living, I highly doubt they are traveling and staying in cheap hostels. And I highly doubt they have the time to indulge in the arts, work on hobbies, or teach themselves how to code because they are working 60+ hours a week to make ends meet.…

I think you're making incorrect assumptions about my "disconnect" and using that to validate your dismissal of my opinion that other variables are important when doing cross-generational comparisons.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#64

Post by collective-intl » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:53 PM UTC

I actually don't think the data and graphs prove their point.

Millenials are young and so the appropriate comparison has to be to to other generations when they were the same age.

You can throw out half their graphs based in that point.

The remaining ones are cherry-picked to be misleading.

Growth in the overall economy, while good, does not indicate the absolute level of success. Would you have rather grown up in India where there's been much higher growth in the last few decades?

In general, real wages have only grown over time. Today, we benefit from all the growth of previous generations.

Median household income is not flat, but up steadily every decade. Yes, on the high end, it has grown even more (because a smart person can contribute more than in the past b/c less manual work, information tech).

But what no one says is that wages are up for lower incomes as well.

And, the safety net is bigger: government transfers for unemployment, food stamps, child tax credits, etc are WAY up compared to previous generations. Boomers barely got a dime.

Before the pandemic, the economy was absolutely the best it's ever been by a long shot. Why didn't they show an actual comparison of employment rates? Millennials would be dominating.

Millennials also dominate on education. Our lives are so much richer because we've more likely gone to college and can access so much information from our smart phones.

In the same way that news is mostly all the bad things happening around the world (another shooting, another disaster), journalism and politics is often about all things gone wrong in our society.

Consequently, nearly everything you read and hear about current times is exaggerated in a negative way. (Often for the good purpose of trying to improve it.)

This article is a perfect example.

Try to stay skeptical when everyone is saying our world is regressing to poverty and nastiness.

Because the truth is we have a vibrant and beautiful society that's damn near the best it's ever been. And the future holds even more promise.

-- A young millenial

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#65

Post by Gibbon1 » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 7:20 PM UTC

4636760295 wrote: post #28

Yeah, this makes sense. I got it especially bad, since I joined startups that raised a huge amount of money on promises of riches, and then failed after burning through hundreds of millions of dollars. The founders cashed out before the companies imploded, but regular employees were left holding the bag. I have lots of illiquid startup stock that's now worthless, after about 10 years in Silicon Valley. I do feel like…

I think about two friends of mine. Both got slammed by the 2001 recession. At one point they were sleeping on couches. They managed in the last ten years to get good paying jobs, 90/120k a year. And when they look at their budget taxes eat almost half.

And then there is a friend who managed to hop skip and keep a decent job and stuff money away tax protected. He's made more off capital gains than he's made from working.

The whole system is set up to allow wealth to accumulate no matter the state of the real economy. While preventing people with earned income from 'breaking out' and competing with the wealthy and their children.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#66

Post by voisin » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 7:45 PM UTC

bronzeage wrote: post #25

Debt and overleverage is stealing from the future. We got into 2020 with nearly every corporate in america deep into debt which used to finance buybacks. The last 3 years of profit and growth were stolen from the future by the CEOs and past shareholders of these companies, and now the Fed is bailing them out by encouraging even more debt and leverage during coronavirus crisis.

The problem starts with government. No one in leadership among any of the parties has shown any real concern for debt and have been loading up one debt for decades. The only politically acceptable solution to that debt is to slowly inflate it away. Any other solution will be divisive. So the government loads up on debt and inflates it away, keeping interest rates lower for longer than they should. Then it filters down to corporations and individuals. Interest rates are low and debt requirements are lax, and if you aren’t willing to take on debt, you will be outbid by someone who is.

I expect deflation in the near term, and tremendous inflation in the long term.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#67

Post by voisin » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 7:47 PM UTC

ghiculescu wrote: post #10

It's interesting the Lost generation, 100 years ago, fairs the next worse, and most similarly to millennials. I re-read The Sun Also Rises[1] yesterday. You could change the names and it'd be the story of plenty of people I know today. History repeats itself. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sun_Also_Rises - if you haven't read it, it's the best book.

A Moveable Feast is another good one from Hemingway with themes that strike me as oddly similar the millennial generation.

Just hoping I can’t say the same thing about Steinbeck’s books in the next few years.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#68

Post by voisin » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 7:52 PM UTC

sukilot wrote: post #56

This thread has quite a few people looking into rose tinted mirrors and forgetting that the US Civil Rights Movement and the Vietnam War and oil crisis and the computer/internet (!) revolution happened. All the people saying riffs of "OK, Boomer" should go visit BLM protest and ask people there how envious they are of their grandparents.

I think many white people would say they are envious of the opportunities that their parents and grandparents had laid at their feet. I think many non-white people would say the opposite. I think this is the crux of the issues - they persist across generations.

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#69

Post by qqqwerty » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 8:00 PM UTC

elhudy wrote: post #62

qqqwerty wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a fairly narrow view of the issue. For one, I think most people throughout history would refuse to trade places with previous generations, with maybe the main exception being those that were significantly impacted by war. And secondly, the article is focused on economic prospects of our generation, many of the ramifications of which will not play out for decades. Millennials are still relatively young. Being…

>This is a fairly narrow view of the issue. Actually, I'm taking a broader view of the issue. >article is focused on economic prospects of our generation, many of the ramifications of which will not play out for decades My response is not focused on the economic ($$) future of millennials. In fact, I am not even in disagreement that millennials are disadvantaged economically particularly when looking at CoL and debt.…

I think you are greatly overestimating the impact of technology on peoples QOL. The HN crowd are likely to be heavy tech users, but your average person is not. The average person might get their video from Netflix instead of Cable TV now, and they might use social networking (which has its downsides) instead of phone lines, but they aren't playing MMOGs or taking MOOCs.

For example, in my own circle of hobbies. Fishing is getting worse[1]. Surfing is difficult because costal real estate is crazy expensive. Gardening is also difficult due to real estate, etc.. I can think of at least a dozen other activities that are now much harder to participate in due to rising real estate prices, climate change, or wealth inequality. For anyone who participates in these activities, there is a real loss in QOL.

Also, I think you are presenting a false dichotomy. Your suggestions is that millennials should be content because technological progress offsets the loss of economic opportunity. This is a false choice. We can have both with the right mix of policy. No one said to the boomers "You can have good economic opportunity, or you can have technological advancements, pick one". In their own lifetimes, they also saw huge advancements in medicine, infrastructure, communication, and tech.

[1] https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/9058818-181/california-po...

Re: Data and graphs showing millenials' bad economic odds

#70

Post by Balgair » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 8:10 PM UTC

tenaciousDaniel wrote: post #9

netsectoday wrote: post #7

Reading this article as a millennial really hits home as I remember entering the workforce as a teenager mid 2001 as soon as I could drive (months before 9/11), re-entering the workforce as a young adult early 2008 as soon as I had a degree (months before the great recession), then building a company as an adult for two years and launching it January 2020 (months before the end of the world). There have been no break…

I've had a similar trajectory. Graduated college in 2008. Just decided to purchase my first home a few months ago, signed the contract literally a few weeks before covid.

We had friends conceive the week before covid blew up in the US (estimated, of course). They both lost their jobs in the fallout. No home ownership, no healthcare, and a new one on the way.

It's a bit challenging these days for a lot of people.