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More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

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Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#31
post #2

Purely as a thought experiment, if we suspended mortgage repayments for N months and rental payments for N months, what bad (or good) effects might we see?

You'd see a devaluing of the underlying property, so you'd be upside down on your mortgage. Property owners would stop taking care of buildings in terms of rentals, so maintenance would be a significant issue.

There are a lot of bank loans using a real estate asset as collateral - those would now be significantly riskier for the banks to hold, so new loans would probably stall and/or become more restrictive, slowing growth.

Municipal services would start to take a hit next, since a lot of the property taxes go to things like schools and waste disposal.

On the flip side, people not paying their rent would have more money in their bank accounts to cover an unforeseen medical bill. I doubt retail would increase by that much if quarantining was still in place, though.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#32
post #10
post #2

Purely as a thought experiment, if we suspended mortgage repayments for N months and rental payments for N months, what bad (or good) effects might we see?

The whole banking system would collapse like in 2007-2008 because "everyone stops paying mortgages all at once" is basically what happened then. Renters stop paying their rent so landlords go broke. Landlords stop paying their mortgages. Mortgage-backed securities go into default. Anyone with lots of exposure to mortgage-backed securities folds. Their counterparties in all sorts of financial arrangements can't collec…

> Renters stop paying their rent so landlords go broke. Landlords stop paying their mortgages

But I said in my question: "if we suspended mortgage repayments for N months and rental payments for N months"

Landlords are not paying their main cost (the mortgage) so why do landlords go broke? They have some fixed overheads but those are usually a few % of the mortgage.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#33
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my country they just declared 1 year no mortgage payments for everyone who needs.

What country is that? Is everything government owned? Because how can a landlord possibly manage that? And why is the landlord the one asked to help the tenant, isn't that the job of government?

Suspension of mortgage would help the landlord not the renter. The owner/landlord pays the mortgage not the tenant, the tenant pays rent to the landlord.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#34
I am afraid we are in a real Wile E Coyote moment here. You know, where he's suspended in air for a few seconds before he goes crashing to the ground?

Our crash may come in the fall when UI payments stop and the rent floats become unsustainable. About the time the second wave hits.

https://66.media.tumblr.com/bbbf0aec68490ae2679ef489709c3d18...

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#35
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, but comrade, paying rent itself is inherently unfair. It allows for profit off merely having bought something sooner than another had a chance to. If the rent stops now, why should the rent start back up?

I guess you're being sarcastic, but what value is being provided to society by having landlords rent houses out to people who would rather buy them?

My goodness, people here must really not have any experience either renting or owning. As a new homeowner, it is obvious what I used to be paying for -- someone to fix my living space any time something broke without charge and someone to maintain my building and my outdoor areas. It turns out that these things are actual work...

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#36
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, but comrade, paying rent itself is inherently unfair. It allows for profit off merely having bought something sooner than another had a chance to. If the rent stops now, why should the rent start back up?

I guess you're being sarcastic, but what value is being provided to society by having landlords rent houses out to people who would rather buy them?

Not much. Society is paying to improve the value of the land.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#37
> Bed Bath & Beyond, Famous Footwear, H&M, and the Gap, AMC and Regal movie theaters, and 24 Hour Fitness gyms have all missed payments, jeopardizing the stability of their property management companies and municipal governments that rely on property taxes, The Post's Heather Long reported.

All roads lead to the Federal Reserve. Stores defaulting on rent payments starves landlords for cash. Landlords unable to service mortgages or pay taxes starves banks and state/local governments. Banks starved for money turn to the Fed for bailouts. States starved for cash turn to Washington. Washington issues bonds which the Fed buys because nobody in their right mind would buy 10 or 30 year Treasuries with the goal of holding to maturity.

The Fed's balance sheet has exploded higher (>20% GDP), with no end in sight:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

Where does it all lead? There are two options:

1. Default on the national debt.

2. Currency depreciation.

The most likely outcome is (2). One way or another, the dollar is headed lower. Perversely, this could be great for stocks, bonds, and other assets nominally. The problem is the size of the dollar depreciation that would be required to bring the Fed's balance sheet back under control.

The only problem is that the dollar happens to be the world's reserve currency. As the Fed does its best to slaughter the dollar bull, every other country is printing money as fast as possible to depreciate their own currencies.

Nobody knows where this mess ends.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#38
It feels like a huge wave just crashed, and many people standing waist-deep in the water think things are on the upswing now -- when really they're about to get sucked into a powerful undertow.

Judging by the state of the stock market, many investors seem oblivious to the magnitude of the effects of the pandemic.

The S&P 500 lost more than a third of its value in the pandemic crash. Yet the index is now two-thirds of the way back to its high point:

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/04/865117170/the-economy-is-in-t...

But look at the levels of initial jobless claims still coming in at multiples above where they should be. Look at how many businesses are still shuttered, with an uncertain H2 ahead.

Given the harsh economic reality, I'm very bearish right now. I think we're going to see another significant drop as the full effects sink in, which is what has happened in other crashes. Investors call it a dead-cat bounce. But in this case, I'm picturing a bigger animal. Hippo maybe.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#39
post #24
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who make a living by renting out a room/floor would need government assistance to survive.

Why? They wouldn't be paying rent to their landlords either.

because they aren't running at cost/deficit but make actual money (profits). those would now be gone too.

Re: More than half of American retailers didn't pay their rent in April and May

#40
post #2

Purely as a thought experiment, if we suspended mortgage repayments for N months and rental payments for N months, what bad (or good) effects might we see?

I asked Paul Krugman this on Twitter and he didn’t reply unfortunately.

Yes to halting the entire chain (mortgage included)but maintaining the interest.

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