Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms • Hacker News Board

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#471

Post by _7fvc » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 6:08 AM UTC

walterbell wrote: post #66

aphextron wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If there is no spike in infections within two weeks, from areas which had large public protests in the past week, can millions of Americans be helped by restarting the economy? Daily new infections have more than doubled here in North Carolina in the last two weeks since "reopening" [0]. We have had more new cases in the last two weeks (2200) than in the entire length of lockdown from March until then (2000). The de…

Is there a dashboard which shows increase in testing capacity over that same period, case demographics, presence of other medical conditions, and asymptomatic cases? With increased (including employment-related) testing, case count should be increasing everywhere, but some of those could be recovered or asymptomatic. We know that most hospitals were well below capacity, so new cases can be treated.

Testing capacity has been increased. The amount of negative cases is going up. Positive cases are going down.

https://vida.io/dashboards/ck9thqbxl00000umrd0u2pmdj

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#472

Post by dehrmann » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 6:10 AM UTC

michaelbuckbee wrote: post #318

somewhereoutth wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Europe we are using lockdowns to get infections sufficiently low to do test, trace, and isolate - with eradication as the ultimate objective.

This. Look at what New Zeland [1] has been able to do (or any Asian country that had plans in place post-SARS). The US lockdown should have been used to buy us time to put procedures in place to stop further spread. 1 - https://bing.com/covid/local/newzealand

New Zealand is interesting because it's an island (2+, really), mostly rural, relatively isolated from the world, and caught it early. At some point they're going to open up, and someone with a 16-day incubation period will slip by and spread it. Or someone from a container ship.

The first US fatality was reported on Feb 29. There are reports that it started spreading in the US in late December. It took two months to notice it, 3.5 to panic. That said, people are looking for it now, so that helps.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#473

Post by dajohnson89 » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 6:13 AM UTC

joshstrange wrote: post #190

cycrutchfield wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody was ever advocating for indefinite or long-term lockdown policies. That's a strawman.

Exactly. It was time to get our feet under us, get PPE, get testing capacity up, get contract tracing in place etc. Kentucky, my state, has started opening up but is watching the numbers closely. No one wants to stay locked down. It's going to be very interesting going forward. The American public (myself included more times than I would care to admit) is really good about moving on and having a short-term memory on…

we could be sweeping something else under the rug: knock-on effects of the shutdown. people are somehow just starting to realize that there's worse impacts of shutting down the economy than lower share prices. people go hungry. people riot. cities burn. innocents get killed throughout the whole process. we're just getting started if the economy doesnt turn around quick.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#474

Post by taneq » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 6:23 AM UTC

majormajor wrote: post #127

olivermarks wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you have a very misguided idea of what it's like to be a landlord....and perceptions of who/what 'landlords' (a very unfortunate term) are from some tenants... no good deed goes unpunished etc. Plenty of great people around but you have to be very careful who you rent to...

> Plenty of great people around but you have to be very careful who you rent to... This goes both ways. You have to be careful who you rent from, too. Of all the investment opportunities available to people, I'm not particular sympathetic to purchasing property to seek rents.

When we talk about 'rent seeking' it's usually not about actual rental of property, which fills a very real need in society.

Maybe it's different in other parts of the world but where I live, rent seldom covers the mortgage on a property, let alone all other expenses. The profit, if any, generally comes from capital gains when selling the property (which right now isn't on the cards for pretty much anyone.)

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#475

Post by adamsmith » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 6:25 AM UTC

thephyber wrote: post #211

pnw_hazor wrote: post #94

A wave of more layoffs will happen as soon as the Paycheck Protection quiet period ends. After June 30, companies that took PPP money are free to fire people without repercussion.

I like to remind people that in 2008, Bear Stearns fell in March. Most of the the economy didn't realize the financial system problems until late August. I'm waiting for a very large shoe to drop in a few months. How big will depend on whether consumers feel comfortable about their jobs+health.

The turnarounds always happen quickly after the fed takes serious action. Consider the 2008 crisis, or take 1933 (I believe?) when we broke from the gold standard: immediate exit from the Great Depression.

The fed and congress have been very on point with the stimulus response speed this time around and so I think we’ve seen the bottom of the market through this. And most investors are voting with their dollars that this is true.

(I’m just parroting Ray Dalio.)

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#476

Post by cko » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 6:26 AM UTC

electricviolet wrote: post #457

dmarlow wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree. I hope I didn't come across any other way.

You said "when things come easy to people, they don't appreciate it" referring to one of your Section 8 tenants. If you didn't mean to imply that housing comes easy to poor people who are on Section 8, then what did you mean?

That a $0 copay may lead to different behavior than a $50 copay?

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#477

Post by enriquto » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 6:39 AM UTC

olivermarks wrote: post #110

tyre wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when things come easy to people I think you have a very misguided idea of what it's like to live in poverty.

I think you have a very misguided idea of what it's like to be a landlord....and perceptions of who/what 'landlords' (a very unfortunate term) are from some tenants... no good deed goes unpunished etc. Plenty of great people around but you have to be very careful who you rent to...

> I think you have a very misguided idea of what it's like to be a landlord

Landlords are essentially social parasites, that extract economic benefit without producing anything of value.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#478

Post by mint2 » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 6:47 AM UTC

rodgerd wrote: post #465

jeffbee wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mix shift. Oakland has just gone through a major wave of new construction. New apartments command higher rents. This does not necessarily imply a movement of people.

> Oakland has just gone through a major wave of new construction. New apartments command higher rents. Funny, the religion in these parts is usually that building more apartments is the only way to drop rents.

All new construction in the bay is usually high priced luxury since that’s where developers make the most return. Thus new units aren’t cheaper.

What I’ve heard is that’s either supposed to free up other older apartments or we’re supposed to wait 30 years for the new luxury apartments to become old and cheaper.

I think we need rules about constructing diversified units, not exclusively luxury ones but proportional numbers of basic, medium and luxury.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#479

Post by luckylion » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 6:48 AM UTC

taneq wrote: post #474

majormajor wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Plenty of great people around but you have to be very careful who you rent to... This goes both ways. You have to be careful who you rent from, too. Of all the investment opportunities available to people, I'm not particular sympathetic to purchasing property to seek rents.

When we talk about 'rent seeking' it's usually not about actual rental of property, which fills a very real need in society. Maybe it's different in other parts of the world but where I live, rent seldom covers the mortgage on a property, let alone all other expenses. The profit, if any, generally comes from capital gains when selling the property (which right now isn't on the cards for pretty much anyone.)

For Germany, the profits usually come from rent itself as well as capital gains, at least in the cities.

I'm a member and live in a housing complex owned by a cooperative. The rent you'll pay in this kind of setting is at the lower end of the market, the services you get are at the upper end. Being a cooperative means I own shares, so I get dividends and balance sheets etc. Even with this great (for renters) setup, they still pay out 4% dividends and expand like crazy (not to produce more dividends but to provide more apartments). They could pay out much more than 4% but they don't want to optimize for profit and make it an investment, the dividends are meant to incentivize members to invest/save more than legally required.

The place I lived at previously had higher rents and less services. I don't know how much of a profit they made annually, but I'm sure it wasn't anywhere close to 4%.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#480

Post by reshyith » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 6:50 AM UTC

ngngngng wrote: post #47

I'm so extremely grateful that I accepted section 8 tenants into my rental units. Most of these tenants have nearly all of their payment covered by the government and they just have to pay $100 or $200 on top of that to cover what the government won't. These tenants are often not accepted by landlords because they're thought to cause more issues. Mine are great. They keep the units spotless, mow the lawn for me on my…

I am very thankful to hear you have had a good experience with your Section 8 tenants.

As a HUD-VASH veteran recipient in Los Angeles, I have hoped to discover that there are reasons to expand programs for more low-income people in the United States. I am EXTREMELY fortunate as a veteran to receive housing assistance. Thanks for making it possible for people in need to have a safe and affordable option! Blessings!