Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms • Hacker News Board

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#451

Post by bobthepanda » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 4:52 AM UTC

fyfy18 wrote: post #438

jeffbee wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's plenty of landlords in SF who think turnips bleed. There was a cafe that just closed permanently because the landlord wouldn't lower the rent, in a building bought 20 years ago for $1m where the gross rents are over $60k/month. You do the math.

This has been very much the case in UK high streets for the past few years (on and off since '08). In the county-town where I grew up a Starbucks (!?!) closed because the rents were too high. Even before the pandemic, a number of shops have closed down in the last year, so it will be interesting to see what's left 6 months post lockdown. The only businesses in that town that have been booming are retirement homes...…

At least in NY, rising retail vacancies were partially obscured by bank branches spreading like wildfire. The retail market is not particularly healthy if the landlords' only tenants are the people they're paying off the mortgage to.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#452

Post by conductr » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 4:52 AM UTC

xenospn wrote: post #283

busyant wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These stories that come out of the woodwork every time tenants are mentioned are why I’ll never be a landlord. My wife and I own a number of (8) rental properties. My wife manages them and we rarely have problems with tenants. I will tell you what I think is the secret. My wife figuratively crawls up the ass of all prospective tenants. She needs to see credit history, pay stubs, and proof of punctual rent payments…

Last time I rented from a private person, they asked me for some basic information. I sent them my last 3 pay stubs and a credit check in a short email. They accepted me on the spot, and said most people can't even manage to write a proper email.

> most people can't even manage to write a proper email

So true. I get so many emails like “we can move in tomorrow” or “hook me up”. If they call, voicemails are only marginally better. Makes screening easier though as I simply do not respond.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#453

Post by fabianhjr » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 4:57 AM UTC

bsanr2 wrote: post #408

thephyber wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like to remind people that in 2008, Bear Stearns fell in March. Most of the the economy didn't realize the financial system problems until late August. I'm waiting for a very large shoe to drop in a few months. How big will depend on whether consumers feel comfortable about their jobs+health.

Titanic Syndrome. Everything's going under, but the people on the upper decks are still enjoying their late-night cigars while the boiler crew is drowning. It's an interesting phenomenon (and, I'm sure, has a better name than the one I just made up).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#454

Post by dodobirdlord » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 4:58 AM UTC

yingw787 wrote: post #276

gshubert17 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile stock market is preparing to for its record high :) Yes, and I don't understand it. The S&P500 is within 8% of its all-time high (3393). Even without a second wave of coronavirus cases and deaths, the current levels of unemployment, defaults, and bankruptices, I can't see what supports these asset price levels. Any ideas?

I've heard that all that QE and tax cuts from '08 and '20 goes into assets that are valued by rich people. Healthcare, real estate, college, financial securities, which drives up prices due to inflation. I'm not sure if I'm totally right, seems a bit too simple, but it makes enough sense to me. That money has to go somewhere, right? Add that demand with demand from rich people from other countries for the same servic…

The interest rate on government bonds is negative or basically negative through most of the world. Stock markets outside of the US have been struggling for a while now. There isn't really anywhere to get any sort of return these days, so the money ends up in the US stock market where it seems to get at least some sort of return.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#455

Post by unishark » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 4:59 AM UTC

curryst wrote: post #391

jeffdavis wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me that's very up-front. There might be a lot of people who would try to hide disqualifying information, hoping you don't find it. There are probably a limited number of landlords who rent to felons, and they have to just make 1000 calls to find a place.

They also get it on both ends. Felons make 41% less than their same age counterparts [1]. Thus they are both felons, and have lower income (as well as a higher likelihood of evictions, etc). I've been reading Evictions: Poverty and Profit in the American City on recommendation from HN and it has been eye opening. They don't make 1,000 calls, but there are several stories of people making a little over or under 100 di…

I think the real problem is it's just such a one-sided market in so many places due to market capture by property owners, plus just outright over-representation in lawmaking. If there were a lot more landlords desperate for any renters they can get to avoid going bankrupt on their units, there would be more options for everyone.

As for public housing, there used to be housing projects in the city I live in. The murder rates within those blocks were probably higher than in any country in the world.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#456

Post by uoaei » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 5:00 AM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #364

uoaei wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If riots aren't covered in cities and neighborhoods with historical precedent of civil unrest, I don't think that's anyone's fault but the policy provider's.

Why the provider and not the purchaser who chose that insurance? It’s spelled out in the contract what you’re buying (and paying for).

"If riots aren't covered" the clause won't be in any contract to begin with.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#457

Post by electricviolet » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 5:08 AM UTC

dmarlow wrote: post #345

michaelmrose wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone who thinks anything comes easy because you're poor hasn't been poor except in the poor college student "working" their way through the college daddy is paying for type of poor. Your experience points to the human race sucking not poor people.

I don't disagree. I hope I didn't come across any other way.

You said "when things come easy to people, they don't appreciate it" referring to one of your Section 8 tenants.

If you didn't mean to imply that housing comes easy to poor people who are on Section 8, then what did you mean?

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#458

Post by conductr » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 5:12 AM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #388

downerending wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably. Though with some weird details. I'm actually getting paid more right now being "furloughed", with the approval of my employer and (tacitly) the state. When the "don't work" bonus ends, I'll revert to full time.

> Probably. Though with some weird details. I'm actually getting paid more right now being "furloughed", with the approval of my employer and (tacitly) the state. When the "don't work" bonus ends, I'll revert to full time. I think a lot of people haven't realized that for many workers, being furloughed or having your hours reduced can result in an effective raise under the current Coronavirus aid package. A friend's…

I feel like the perverse uplift will be more than offset by the people still working for soon to be bankrupt companies.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

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Post by Red_Leaves_Flyy » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 5:14 AM UTC

marcusverus wrote: post #399

Red_Leaves_Flyy wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Attract crime? Section 8 neighborhoods are like gated communities for poor people except instead of gates they have excessive police presence, few opportunities, overpriced essential goods, poor access to banking but usually several check cashing shops and payday lenders, minimum wage jobs or worse, bad schools. Section 8 neighborhoods are a dumping ground for the people and families society deems undeserving.

Society pays for housing, health care, schooling, Pre-K, pre-pre-k, food, phone/internet, and more for folks in section 8 neighborhoods. They aren't being abandoned, they are being supported by society at considerable expense, at a higher standard of living than the average human being--in return for nothing. Meanwhile the average worker pays 30+% of their income in federal, state and local taxes--basically working u…

Society pays for housing, health care, schooling, Pre-K, pre-pre-k, food, phone/internet, and more for folks in section 8 neighborhoods. They aren't being abandoned, they are being supported by society at considerable expense, at a higher standard of living than the average human being--in return for nothing.

These are all either basic human rights that the richest country on earth should provide universally no questions asked as a matter of principal, or they're necessities needed to participate in a modern economy.

Comparing a section 8 household to a developing household is not a fair comparison unless you want to see more income inequality and have slums, surrounding high tech cities in the clouds, where the servants live.

>Meanwhile the average worker pays 30+% of their income in federal, state and local taxes--basically working unpaid from Jan 1st through Mar 31st--and they are supposed to believe that the poor are the victims? Yikes!

Infrastructure and essential services are damn expensive. Without roads, telecommunications, satellites, vaccines, bridges, dams, railroads, hospitals, social safety nets and the like the American way of life would not be possible. If you want to consider what sacrifices in these areas look like I suggest you look at the recent Michigan dam failure.

It is possible for both the decaying middle class and the impoverished class to be victims of systemic corruption and misallocation of resources.

Section 8 housing is a trap, 1, where many Americans get stuck. There are many perverse incentives at work where it is better for the recipients to stop working or not work at all because doing so would end their benefits. Likewise, many families are far better off on benefits than not. I did some napkin math about this previously, 2. So, the solution lies not in being angry at the people stuck on benefits who've failed to pull themselves up by their bootstraps. Rather, with poor leadership, propaganda, benefit cliffs, and congresses inability to do their job and fix these systems that have been broken for generations.

Everyone suffers when we fail to fund essential services. Complaining about the raw numbers is easy and makes for a good clickbait headline but such statements lack intellectual rigor and blindly ignore reality.

1. https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/06/section...

2. news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22043619

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#460

Post by electricviolet » Thu, Jun 04, 2020, 5:17 AM UTC

opportune wrote: post #448

nostrademons wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's more variance with small-time landlords. With a corporate overlord you know exactly what you're getting: they are going to be firm about sticking you to the exact terms of your lease and will raise your rent by the maximum possible each year, but you can also expect any maintenance issues to be taken care of quickly and they aren't going to feud with or retaliate against you. With a mom & pop you might get so…

Ah, makes sense. I didn’t factor in the possibility that a small landlord might not raise rents (though I assume it’s less of a factor in SF given rent control). I move around a lot so rents getting raised aren’t as important to me.

Yeah, your experience is just very different from the average renter if you move around a lot, so you have different concerns.