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Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

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Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#421
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These stories that come out of the woodwork every time tenants are mentioned are why I’ll never be a landlord.

My simplified understanding is that this is what REITs are for. They're an investment vehicle for companies looking to build real estate they don't have the capital for. They raise through a REIT and you wind up with a dividend of some kind out of what they make from tenants. It minimizes the risk for a general investor. Disclaimer: I know very little about them, this is not a recommendation I probably have some deta…

Largely offtopic but:

You are not incorrect per sé. REITs exists in an awful large number of varieties in every possible flavor and indeed broadly reflect what you describe, i.e. an exposure to a Real Estate. You get paid a dividend (which would be similar to the cashflow you receive from a rental property you own). There are a number of upsides of investing in REITs over buying a property and renting it out: - less work (no need to manage tenants) - less risk (it's a diverse set of properties across multiple locations vs a single property in one location). - highly liquid (you can buy any amount and sell virtually whenever you want you need to liquidity)

there is some downside: - it is not tangible as a property (sometimes that means that if you don't understand exactly what you bought under what conditions it can mean you have some unknown exposure/risk you were not aware of). - it has less upside generally (in terms of risk/reward, it is a much safer investment but with that there is also upside as if you were to own a single property in the right neighborhood). - less leverage (generally you get more leverage on your mortgage than on your investment account)

Particularly the last points is what catches people often. I.e. if you are renting a property and everyone else is owning, and the properties go up, you will feel 'stupid'. People love bragging how they got rich by buying and 'flipping' and ofcourse this happens and has happened in the past. But for all those great stories you don't hear the people that bought and were stuck with the house, had to sell at 'firesale price' because they lost a job/got divorced/etc etc. In the end, buying and owning property with leverage is a choice that fits a certain lifestyle and SHOULD not be for everyone. There are a lot of other investment opportunities in the set for any individual that would be better suited but are often considered 'complex'. Owning a house is simple and has been pushed for decades to 'build' wealth.

The reality is that for most people their housing cost is by far the largest fraction of their cost of living. Owning alleviates this costs to a certain extend if only psychologically, but it does not come risk free (the number of times I heard people say 'house prices only go up'). The leverage factor aside (which is a real thing), looking from a person investing their savings, an appropriate allocation would be something dependent on their age but in any case not much over 10% in Real Estate. About as much on commodities (GOLD/precious metals/etc), Fixed Income depending on age but somewhere between 20% percent earlier in career with little commitments and up to 70% in retirement, with the rest in stocks ideally globally diversified. That all being loosely based on the highest risk-adjusted return models (or how any active manager would run your fund from a top level).

Obviously, this is boring and it is way more smarter to buy this sexy property and flip it a couple times and those tenants are not an issue cause 'you love dealing with them anyways and have nothing better to do'. Basically risk-free money and you didn't even work for it. /s

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#422
post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does it cover? Isn't any sort of damage potentially a collision?

I'm guessing it's only supposed to cover "traffic accidents", as opposed to "user caused" accidents (eg. dropping your phone on the ground).

Actually the opposite. Damage due to non-collision.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#423
post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're very lucky. Rented to a single mother with two teenage sons. The teenage sons that decided to strip down living trees of their branches, to make bonfires for parties in the backyard. Two trees are severely damaged, and anything that was burnable in the landscape is burnt. I don't even know how to go about pricing out the damage. Insurance is paying for their rent, because the last house they lived in burned do…

Are you that worse off if they burn it down? You won’t have to worry about them resisting eviction and you’ll get an insurance payment.

Insurance payments being equal, I don't think it needs to be said that not wanting your things to be set on fire is a reasonable ask.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#424
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These stories that come out of the woodwork every time tenants are mentioned are why I’ll never be a landlord. My wife and I own a number of (8) rental properties. My wife manages them and we rarely have problems with tenants. I will tell you what I think is the secret. My wife figuratively crawls up the ass of all prospective tenants. She needs to see credit history, pay stubs, and proof of punctual rent payments…

Not so amazed on this end. A landlord that demands a lot from a prospective tenant upfront without any indication that it's going to be reciprocated in terms of responsiveness to maintenance issues, understanding when crises (like pandemics) come up, etc., is a red flag. It means you're going to be seen less as a customer who's paying for a service and more as a simple monthly source of cash. Those are the types of l…

I can tell you that we haven't pulled any of the tricks that you outlined (nor any other tricks that I can think of).

I think we treat the tenants fairly. My wife's background checks are her way of assessing whether someone can actually pay the rent that we're asking for. If the applicant makes $20K / year and the rent is $1300 / month, both parties are just asking for trouble if they sign a lease.

> People just want a place to live.

Can I stay at your place?

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#426

I'm so extremely grateful that I accepted section 8 tenants into my rental units. Most of these tenants have nearly all of their payment covered by the government and they just have to pay $100 or $200 on top of that to cover what the government won't. These tenants are often not accepted by landlords because they're thought to cause more issues. Mine are great. They keep the units spotless, mow the lawn for me on my…

I lived in a building with a few section 8 tenants. Most were disabled, some elderly, and others young single mothers. I only found out we had any at all because the property manager mentioned it to me. It was primarily a building of young professionals and grad students. She told me management love them. Government always pays the rent on time. They still had to pass a background check so that locked out a lot of the assumptions.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How big is the tree? Beavers cause this type damage and they also can't be reasoned with. If it's small enough to reach 60% of the bark just have it cut down and into pieces. It seems to make good enough firewood for them, hopefully the'll burn through most of it and you can plant a new tree in the ashes next month?

The pine tree is fully mature, maybe 40+ feet high. Its the one with the most damage to its bark. Too big for me to cut down on my own. Its also next to a fence. The blue spruce I could cut down.

Here in Sydney Australia some local council restrictions are very onerous when it comes to trimming or removing older trees (except a short list of excluded species). I've heard of fines of $40,000 or more. Nothing like that near you?

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#429

Meanwhile stock market is preparing to for its record high :).

> Meanwhile stock market is preparing to for its record high :) Yes, and I don't understand it. The S&P500 is within 8% of its all-time high (3393). Even without a second wave of coronavirus cases and deaths, the current levels of unemployment, defaults, and bankruptices, I can't see what supports these asset price levels. Any ideas?

Markets function through buying and selling. More people need to be selling then buying for prices to go down. But the fed is just coming in and buying in the markets with no buyers so this mechanism stops working and unsurprisingly prices are staying inflated.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#430

I imagine a huge cash crunch is coming up soon as deferred payments come home to roost. We can’t continue kicking the can down the road forever. If people are over leveraged or insolvent we have to bear the pain eventually. It’s part of the credit cycle and it’s how savers get their foot in the door regarding asset ownership. Otherwise we will have basically embraced some absurd worst-of-both-worlds kind of socialism…

We've been in that worst world since 2008 and will likely not be leaving any time soon.
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