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Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

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Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#381

Post by throwaway0a5e »

brutus1213 wrote: post #329
thephyber wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people who can work from home and who didn't get laid off are fine and the stonks appeared to mostly recover (which may explain some of the money sloshing around the market). I think there will be massive economic damage in 6 months that we aren't focusing on right now.

Is anyone (except govt employees and people making PPE/in healthcare) really fine? The economy is so intricately connected, I feel that everyone will eventually pay the price. The large-corp tech sector has been fine so far but I am not sure how comfortable I am taking on a large mortgage. Atlanta is cheap .. a bay area techie could probably buy a place in cash.

Lots of money has to slosh around as we dig out way out of this hole so wall street banks aren't cutting staff anytime soon.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#382

Post by CivBase »

sky_rw wrote: post #227
inetknght wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Litigate against the tenant? You're probably right. But insurance? Maybe.

Every time I see comments like this, and no direct offense intended, It always strikes me as coming from somebody who has never filed large insurance claims before. Been seeing this so much with riots lately, "oh you have insurance right, why you mad about your business getting destroyed?". If only it was that simple.

Watching Louis Rossman's videos on insurance recently has given me a whole new perspective on the subject. It's amazing just how much they get away with.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#383

Post by gruez »

kuzimoto wrote: post #319
sfj wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wasn't able to collect on insurance for “damage not due to a collision” on my motorcycle when it blew over in strong wind, because the insurance agent said, “There was a collision. When your motorcycle fell over it collided with the ground.”

What does it cover? Isn't any sort of damage potentially a collision?

I'm guessing it's only supposed to cover "traffic accidents", as opposed to "user caused" accidents (eg. dropping your phone on the ground).

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#384

Post by mikem170 »

perl4ever wrote: post #338
mikem170 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing is doubling every week anymore. Why did you bring that up? Daily deaths across pretty much all nations are decreasing even as lockdowns are removed. Nit pick all you'd like, be as afraid as you like, but the numbers you supplied don't support your assertions.

Daily deaths are decreasing while daily new cases are increasing. The areas where most of the new cases are being recorded are rapidly changing, and I think a lot of people aren't paying attention to that. In quite a short time, the western European countries are not at the top of the list of countries with the most new cases, and similarly within the US, NY and NJ are behind Texas, California, Illinois, etc. Maybe d…

>Daily deaths are decreasing while daily new cases are increasing.

But, as I originally stated, there are a lot more tests being done now, and that could explain why the number of confirmed cases is increasing. Some weeks ago they only tested those requiring hospitalization, and as time went on now anyone can get a test.

It would be nice if there were weekly samples of 20k people to serve as a valid week-to-week measure of the population infection rate.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#385

Post by gruez »

ctchocula wrote: post #291
Grimm1 wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My simplified understanding is that this is what REITs are for. They're an investment vehicle for companies looking to build real estate they don't have the capital for. They raise through a REIT and you wind up with a dividend of some kind out of what they make from tenants. It minimizes the risk for a general investor. Disclaimer: I know very little about them, this is not a recommendation I probably have some deta…

My understanding is that the appeal of owning real estate yourself is housing mortgages gives you: (1) the cheapest leverage available to retail investors and (2) a loan that can't be margin-called. In an upmarket, this leverage lets you juice your returns. Say you only have $200,000. Then by getting a mortgage of $800,000 you get ownership of a house worth $1M. This gives you the right to the cashflow from renting t…

Is there a reason why REITs can't themselves be leveraged? ie. taking out a mortgage to buy a house, just like an individual buyer.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#386

Post by jackcosgrove »

bshipp wrote: post #17

This is just the start. Landlords would be smart to work with tenants to share some of the loss and renegotiate temporary adjustments to keep at least some revenue coming in because the heady days of high demand for rental units is likely behind us for a while. It'll be worse in downtown areas. I've heard from multiple firms that are looking at downsizing their expensive office space and continuing to allow employees…

If there is deflation in the housing market, then marginal mortgage holders will walk away and become renters. That will swell the ranks of renters and drive up rents.

In many metro areas owner occupied real estate is overpriced relative to rents. When this imbalance corrects rents will rise, as before the correction owner occupants were subsidizing renters by overpaying for property even though renting made more sense.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#387

Post by drewmol »

jungletime wrote: post #287
drewmol wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How big is the tree? Beavers cause this type damage and they also can't be reasoned with. If it's small enough to reach 60% of the bark just have it cut down and into pieces. It seems to make good enough firewood for them, hopefully the'll burn through most of it and you can plant a new tree in the ashes next month?

The pine tree is fully mature, maybe 40+ feet high. Its the one with the most damage to its bark. Too big for me to cut down on my own. Its also next to a fence. The blue spruce I could cut down.

Deer love to rub velvet of their antlers on the pines around me and it's not uncommon to see a whole group of pines without any branches on the lower half and they rub all the bark they can reach off in the fall. If it's 40 ft, would wrapping the trunk with tree wrap protect it until their gone? Then asses it, hopefully it starts to cover the exposed areas on it's own

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#388

Post by PragmaticPulp »

downerending wrote: post #253
pnw_hazor wrote: post #94

A wave of more layoffs will happen as soon as the Paycheck Protection quiet period ends. After June 30, companies that took PPP money are free to fire people without repercussion.

Probably. Though with some weird details. I'm actually getting paid more right now being "furloughed", with the approval of my employer and (tacitly) the state. When the "don't work" bonus ends, I'll revert to full time.

> Probably. Though with some weird details. I'm actually getting paid more right now being "furloughed", with the approval of my employer and (tacitly) the state. When the "don't work" bonus ends, I'll revert to full time.

I think a lot of people haven't realized that for many workers, being furloughed or having your hours reduced can result in an effective raise under the current Coronavirus aid package.

A friend's company furloughed everyone on Fridays. She was disappointed at first, until she realized this hours reduction qualified her for the $600/week Coronavirus aid. Now she's making more money, working less, and enjoying 3-day weekends.

Now everyone at her company is trying to convince management to continue the Friday furlough until the $600/week stimulus runs out.

This is why I don't trust the unemployment claim numbers until after July. Too many perverse incentives to increase the number of claims.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#389

Post by mikem170 »

srj wrote: post #371
mikem170 wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what those numbers would look like taking into account that there has been much more testing online in the last several weeks? (so of course the number of detected positives goes up) I grant that the worst might not be behind us, but I also keep in mind that the experts said from the beginning that most likely outcomes are that this will become another variant of the common cold or flare up some years simila…

Not sure I follow. It may become seasonal yes, but comparing it to a cold or flu downplays the severity.

The idea is that it will decrease in severity over time. It may already be doing so. In early March they were tracking a dozen mutations already.

From the linked article [0], quoting a number of infectious disease experts, coronavirus researchers, epidemiologist, etc:

>OC43 and 229E are more prevalent than other endemic human coronaviruses, especially in children and the elderly. Together, the four are responsible for an estimated one-quarter of all colds. “For the most part they cause common-cold-type symptoms,” said Richard Webby, an influenza expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. “Maybe that is the most likely end scenario if this thing becomes entrenched.”

>Odds: Moderate. “I think there is a reasonable probability that this becomes the fifth community-acquired coronavirus,” Adalja said, something he expanded on in his blog. Webby agreed: “I have a little bit of hope that, OK, we’ll put up with a couple of years of heightened [2019-nCoV] activity before settling down to something like the other four coronaviruses.”

>Odds: Pretty good. What we may be seeing “is the emergence of a new coronavirus … that could very well become another seasonal pathogen that causes pneumonia,” said infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. It would be “more than a cold” and less than SARS: “The only other pathogen I can compare it to is seasonal influenza.”

(The article had a lot of other interesting and relevant information.)

[0] https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#390

Post by marcusverus »

bsanr2 wrote: post #372
dmarlow wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but the point was to ensure people pay what they're expected to pay. Not to give them a handout.

What counts as a handout these days? A tech job that pays $50k-$100k over productivity? ("The company has been losing money since its founding, but we need a rockstar engineer so we can survive long enough to get bought by Facebook.") I'm not sure we have any idea of the real value of things these days, including what work is worth. Credit has distorted the system; just because someone who is work full-time (however…

That is actually the literal definition of a handout.
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