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Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

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Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#331

Post by tomjakubowski »

staycoolboy wrote: post #326
somewhereoutth wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Europe we are using lockdowns to get infections sufficiently low to do test, trace, and isolate - with eradication as the ultimate objective.

> with eradication as the ultimate objective I don't think anyone is claiming to totally eradicate it, or did I miss something? Because as long as people travel, it will still exist, e.g., we still have SARS and MERS and ZIKA, just very low numbers. I thought the mindset was minimize it until we have a vaccine. I could be wrong.

No cases of SARS have been reported since 2004. It's probable that the SARS-CoV-1 virus was eradicated. That one might have been easier to control because it progressed much faster (and more commonly) to death than the novel coronavirus.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#332

Post by thephyber »

ianai wrote: post #320
thephyber wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are many people and players involved-like the willingness of people to pay so much of their income to housing You are saying that "the supply line isn't to blame for the demand line" when the problem is where they intersect. I realize Im oversimplifying the supply constraints because landlords aren't all of the NIMBY problem.

I agree. It’s a faulty line of reasoning. I’ve felt it before though so it might be a “gut feeling” fallacy.

I think it's only faulty because it's incomplete, but the demand side is a real factor. There are tons of discussions here and elsewhere trying to figure out how to "recreate Silicon Valley elsewhere" (which would theoretically spread the demand across a much larger area).

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#333

Post by MiroF »

refurb wrote: post #324
MiroF wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

San Francisco rent is collapsing - largest YoY decreases on record e: edited

First off, if you read my comments, I'm not talking about rents, I'm talking about sales. And no, real estate prices in SF are not collapsing.

Apologies - you're both right about the context and about the pricing.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#334

Post by perl4ever »

walterbell wrote: post #7

If there is no spike in infections within two weeks, from areas which had large public protests in the past week, can millions of Americans be helped by restarting the economy?

Just today I saw an article that said the covid recession is over.

However...it appears that new infections have been rising again globally since May-ish. It looks to me like it is becoming exponential again, although the slope on a log scale is considerably less than the first time.

This is my interpretation of the charts at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

...titled Daily New Cases and Daily Deaths.

Deaths still seem to be declining, but you would expect that to lag regardless.

There seems to be a pattern where the larger countries that weren't hit so hard at first are picking up as developed Europe gets things under control. For instance, India, Brazil, Russia, Pakistan etc.

And within the US, as NY and NJ have fewer new cases, Texas, California, Illinois, and Arizona are starting to take the lead. Over 90% of new cases are outside NY and NJ now.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#335

Post by echelon »

ctchocula wrote: post #291
Grimm1 wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My simplified understanding is that this is what REITs are for. They're an investment vehicle for companies looking to build real estate they don't have the capital for. They raise through a REIT and you wind up with a dividend of some kind out of what they make from tenants. It minimizes the risk for a general investor. Disclaimer: I know very little about them, this is not a recommendation I probably have some deta…

My understanding is that the appeal of owning real estate yourself is housing mortgages gives you: (1) the cheapest leverage available to retail investors and (2) a loan that can't be margin-called. In an upmarket, this leverage lets you juice your returns. Say you only have $200,000. Then by getting a mortgage of $800,000 you get ownership of a house worth $1M. This gives you the right to the cashflow from renting t…

> a loan that can't be margin-called

What do you mean by this? That the loan can't be eagerly collected in full? That the repayment is on a schedule?

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#336

Post by Obi_Juan_Kenobi »

caseysoftware wrote: post #145
tinza123 wrote: post #62

As a passive real estate investor I'm seeing bidding on new sales has actually been more competitive than ever in my area (Atlanta GA). A lot of houses are selling above asking prices with 8-10 offers on the table. I am not sure if people genuinely think it is a good time to buy, or is it mostly FOMO.

I've been watching 20+ properties around Austin, some out of genuine interest, others for a baseline. Zero of them moved in March and April despite asking price coming down every couple weeks. Now in the last couple weeks, 8 of them have had offers. I can't tell if they just dropped back into a "reasonable" range or some segment of the market has turned but it's fascinating.

Home sales are seasonal. They peak in the summer at over double the rate of the winter. This occurs in all regions of the US.

Your observation does not deviate notably from typical market behavior.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#337

Post by Alupis »

mydongle wrote: post #306
Alupis wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well sure, but I'm still not seeing where this "proves how deeply underpaid those jobs were". The explicit intention behind CARES was to provide some resemblance of financial security during a very uncertain time. If paying people a couple hundred more dollars per week than they'd earn while working is what achieves that... and it's temporary... ok fine. But the CARES Act will continue to payout through December... w…

That's right. As I said, I prefer those industries to collapse rather than let them continue on, surviving merely due to the exploitation of cheap human labor. Unless they can change and pay better or make work conditions better.

I don't think those industries need to collapse.

We should have fewer people making careers at unskilled jobs. Nobody can provide for a family comfortably doing that.

Instead, it should be a starting position; an entry into the workforce as you learn a trade, skills or gain knowledge.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#338

Post by perl4ever »

mikem170 wrote: post #136
ceejayoz wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also the increase in deaths you link to is not statistically significant, given it is in the rage of 10-30 over the course of several months in a state with 10 million people. A penny doubled daily is $0.64 after a week, $81.92 after two, $10,485.76 after three, and $1,342,177.28 after four. Upwards movement in cases and deaths in something that spreads exponentially is... not great.

Nothing is doubling every week anymore. Why did you bring that up? Daily deaths across pretty much all nations are decreasing even as lockdowns are removed. Nit pick all you'd like, be as afraid as you like, but the numbers you supplied don't support your assertions.

Daily deaths are decreasing while daily new cases are increasing. The areas where most of the new cases are being recorded are rapidly changing, and I think a lot of people aren't paying attention to that. In quite a short time, the western European countries are not at the top of the list of countries with the most new cases, and similarly within the US, NY and NJ are behind Texas, California, Illinois, etc.

Maybe deaths being down means something positive, but it also could be a lagging indicator to some extent. It could reflect different record-keeping in the areas that are becoming more prominent in new cases.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#339

Post by jeffdavis »

nsxwolf wrote: post #302
xenospn wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last time I rented from a private person, they asked me for some basic information. I sent them my last 3 pay stubs and a credit check in a short email. They accepted me on the spot, and said most people can't even manage to write a proper email.

Every time we advertise for a new tenant we get many calls that go like this: "Do you do criminal background checks?" "Yes." "Ok, thank you, goodbye."

To me that's very up-front. There might be a lot of people who would try to hide disqualifying information, hoping you don't find it.

There are probably a limited number of landlords who rent to felons, and they have to just make 1000 calls to find a place.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#340

Post by refurb »

exclusiv wrote: post #128
tyre wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when things come easy to people I think you have a very misguided idea of what it's like to live in poverty.

How do you know this? I think their point remains. Someone who gets a hand out, or wins $, as an example, will probably not appreciate it the same as if someone busted their ass for it. Also, people often have a short memories when it comes to people that help them out financially. They might remember and appreciate it more if you help them move, or help them learn a craft.

How is that even a controversial statement? It's a well known phenomenon in behavioral economics.

There was a story about how charging some nominal amount for a mosquito net led to more consistent usage and lower malarial rates, than if they just gave the net for free.

Why? Because the "price" of something is a signal as well. If it's free, who cares? If you paid something, well then it's yours and you should look after it.

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